TimeformUS Speed Figures for the Journey to the 2016 Triple Crown
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April 18th Update:
Arkansas Derby featured a fast pace as predicted by TimeformUS Pace Projector; top two late speed horses by a large margin ran 1-2 in reverse order of ratings
In the Lexington, Collected entered the race with much the best TimeformUS Speed Figures and backed it up on the track, but remains on the outside looking in for the Kentucky Derby; BC Juvenile runner up Swipe made an early move into contention before fading in first start since BC
April 11 Update:
Wood Memorial: Outwork has improved his TimeformUS Speed Figure in each start; blazing early fractions—4th place finisher Matt King Coal earned 112 figure, second best in race
Blue Grass: Top three finishers were 11th, 14th, and 12th after two furlongs; race set up perfectly for closers—fractions in red (fast pace) and TimeformUS bias code of blue indicates surface favored off pace types
Santa Anita Derby: Exaggerator’s 119 the top figure this far in a Kentucky Derby points race; both career route wins have come on wet tracks
- Also, here’s a KY Oaks version of the chart:
April 4 Update:
- Career-best TimeformUS Speed Figure in Florida Derby for winner Nyquist; has now won routes on lead, pressing pace, and from back half of field
- First synthetic start for Spiral winner Oscar Nominated; owner will have to pay late $200k fee to run in Kentucky Derby
March 27th Update:
- Please note Lani’s figures overseas are provided by Timeform and removes age adjustments so as to be comparable with TimeformUS Speed Figure display.
- Louisiana Derby winner Gun Runner has improved his TimeformUS Speed Figure in every career start; now four for four on fast tracks.
- Also, here’s a KY Oaks version of the chart, covering the KY Oaks Points Races, and still dominated by the freaky Songbird:
March 20th Update:
- In the Rebel, Cupid was an impressive wire to wire winner after a sluggish start–the next four finishers were 9th, 12th, 14th and 13th early; race was 0.26 seconds faster than the Razorback.
March 13th Update:
- Danzing Candy’s 117 is the Top TimeformUS Speed Figure recorded so far by a male of current 3yo crop.
- In the Tampa Bay Derby, Destin’s 114 was solid; note gap of seven lengths between 2nd and 3rd place finishers
- Also, here’s a KY Oaks version of the chart, covering the KY Oaks Points Races, and dominated by the freaky Songbird:
March 7th update:
- The Santa Ysabel Stakes is not a KY Derby points-earning race (and therefore not included in the chart above), but Juvenile Filly champ Songbird earned the highest TimeformUS Speed Fig by a 3-year-old this year while winning it on Saturday: A 120.
- In the TimeformUS PPs for the Gotham, the track will be coded in red as strongly speed favoring (it was a pronounced rail bias, in fact); winner Shagaf is perfect in three tries.
February 29th Update:
- In the Fountain of Youth, Mohaymen adjusted nicely to fastest pace he has ever faced while still showing tactical speed. His 116, while not spectacular, is the fastest TimeformUS Speed Figure in a Triple Crown prep race so far this season.
Feb 23 Update:
- Gun Runner’s 113 winning the Risen Star is the Best TimeformUS Speed Figure in a 2016 Derby points race so far.
Feb 16 update:
- Destin ran much improved race (114 TimeformUS Speed Figure) when returned to Florida for Sam Davis, but the race does not earn points towards a Kentucky Derby start
- Champion Nyquist (another 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure) remained undefeated with nice score in 7f San Vicente; no points for this race but he likely doesn’t need any to get into the Derby gate
- El Camino Real winner Frank Conversation appears much better away from dirt; two off the board finishes on natural dirt but 3 wins and a place in four synthetic/turf starts
- Suddenbreakingnews fourth next out winner from Springboard, including both 3yo routes stakes at Oaklawn thus far (Smarty Jones and Southwest)
Feb 9 Update:
- 2016 kicks off with an average TimeformUS Speed Figure in the Holy Bull (112, Mohaymen) and slowish wins in the Withers (Sunny Ridge, 104) and Robert B. Lewis (Mor Spirit, 109).
Some background on TimeformUS Speed Figures:
- How TimeformUS Speed Figures work.
- How TimeformUS Pace Figures work
- How TimeformUS Color-Coded Fractions/Pace Figures work
- How TimeformUS Bias Indicators work
Historic Triple Crown Series Figures
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- This is a look at the winning TimeformUS Speed Figures
for the last 6 years of Triple Crown prep races as well as the winning figures for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes for each 0f those years.
- American Pharoah’s Kentucky Derby? We rate it the fastest in the last 6 years. And his Preakness? We rate it second fastest. His Belmont? Fastest.
- The top TimeformUS Speed Figure for any Triple Crown race of the last 6 years was I’ll Have Another’s 130 in the Preakness. The Factor ran the same figure in 2011 Southwest.
- The Southwest at Oaklawn was run in 2 divisions in 2012; we’ve used the higher TimeformUS Speed Figure for the above chart.