New Format, Detail for our “Question Mark” Speed Figures gives you an edge (updated with a new code)

Our customers bet off of TimeformUS Speed Figures, and we do not want them unknowingly placing faith in the occasional number that we are not yet confident in. From time to time, our figures are under review because the evidence that is ordinarily available to create them has somehow been compromised. What’s the best way to handle this challenge to help our customers?

The Origin of Question Mark Figures

One of the helpful features that Timeform Ratings (from the mothership in England) offer when assessing horses overseas is a question mark symbol when a horse’s rating is considered suspect. With that as inspiration, we implemented question mark symbols in TimeformUS Past Performances in the spring of 2015. An example of how Question Mark Figures were initially displayed in TimeformUS  is below:

Screen Shot 2015-06-03 at 12.49.56 PM

Beginning today, Question Mark Figures are being displayed in a new format, with a new level of detail to give TimeformUS Customers an advantage when betting.

Moving to The Left

Question Mark Figures are now shifting to the Race Rating field, to reflect that they apply to the entire race, not just the Speed Figure for one horse. Additionally, instead of the general question mark symbol, you will see  a specific one-letter code that indicates the main reason for the question mark designation. Here’s how these races will look for question mark figures assigned for races beginning January 25th or later:

Screen Shot 2016-06-27 at 5.26.52 PM

Understanding The Codes

Most of the time a tough race to evaluate with a speed figure is marked as such for more than one reason.  The code identifies the main one. Here are the seven possible codes that you will see:

f – First Timers/Lightly Raced – The race was loaded with horses racing for the first time or with very few starts. If a turf or synthetic track race, there could be little to no form on the surface. This is never reason alone to mark a race as questionable. It is usually combined with other factors. For example, a 2yo maiden special weight race with first time starters only and it is the only dirt sprint on the card.

o – Only Turf / Sprint / Route – This one is exactly as described…only one race on the card was run under similar conditions. Much like the f code, this is never a sole reason for marking the race. Most times this is used the race was an “only” and comparing the performance of the horses in the race to the projections varied quite a bit from horse to horse.

p – Pace – There will be some races run with the pace so aberrantly fast or slow that it will cause the horses to all run unreasonably slow final times. Since TimeformUS Speed Figures combine pace and final time figures into one overall number, we’re typically able to capture these nuances, but sometimes the situation is so extreme that we don’t feel we’re able to properly measure it. These races are already flagged via color coding for the fractions/pace figures, but we will go a step further and apply this coding.  It is probably a good idea to ignore races coded “p” from a speed figure point of view.

t – Timer – Unfortunately this is becoming more common in the sport of horse racing. Timer malfunctions are way more prevalent than they should be and races where there was an issue are marked as such. In many cases these races are missing one or more fractional times. We do not attempt to make pace figures for points of call that are missing fractions. Also, there will be no final time figures for races that are not timed at the finish.

b – Breakout – The race appears unusually fast or unusually slow compared to others on the card, including those that come before and after it. Using the same variant as the other races would cause all the top finishers in a race to have aberrant numbers that don’t seem realistic.

n – Possible BreakoutThe race was strongly considered as a “breakout,” code b above, but in the end was left as is with reservations. This is the preferred choice between the two.

c – Track Conditions – Track conditions can change drastically during a card, usually due to weather, and the figures for the race are primarily based on only the horses in this one race.

There are now 2 new types of codes:

  • i – Insufficient data – There simply isn’t enough data to generate a speed figure with confidence. These races will be almost exclusively races for two-year-olds from days when there were no similar races on the card and the two-year-old race was hard to compare to the other races due to things like timing problems, changes in weather, or rarely run distances. As the horses run again, these races will be re-visited to see if enough data has come in to allow us to go back and make a figure with confidence.
  • z – No baseline for pace figures – The race was run on a track configuration that hasn’t been used before or has been used sparingly. The configuration consists of the distance and surface of the race, any temporary rail setting that may be in place, the run up for the race, and the “about” designation used at some locations.

Question Mark Figures: Why We Include This Data in Our Product

To review these suspect figures, we will typically wait for additional evidence to come in, in the form of horses from that race returning to race again. But even that has its limitations. Some figures are questionable when made and remain questionable months later or in perpetuity–because the runbacks do little to clarify the situation. This is rare but it does happen, and we believe it to be true for all Speed Figure makers. When a figure is under review, you deserve to know it.

As a player, you can then incorporate our lack of confidence in the available evidence into your own handicapping and assess additional elements of a horse’s form before placing your bets.

Additionally, if you refer to other speed figures when handicapping, the TimeformUS Question Marks will alert you to difficult conditions that likely affected other figure makers as well. They may not tell you, but we will. And now we’ll tell you why, too.

Related:

>How To Use TimeformUS Race Ratings

>Color-Coded Bias Indicators in TimeformUS Race Ratings

>How To Use TimeformUS Speed Figures

Posted in Data Studies, Player's Point of View, Product features, Race Previews | Leave a comment

Welcome to the TimeformUS Blog

Hello and welcome to the TimeformUS blog!

The purpose of this blog is to explain features of TimeformUS Past Performances, a new horse racing product which is optimized for tablets and the web. Currently, you can purchase TimeformUS Past Performances at TimeformUS.com or in the the TVG Handicapping Store.

This blog is also a great place to ask questions and provide feedback about our new product. Use the links below to get started, and if you have questions, email us at  Support@TimeformUS.com

Visit TimeformUS.com

More TimeformUS How-To Videos

How to use TimeformUS Past Performances
TimeformUS Help Legend (PDF)
The Fast PPs
• Result Charts
• The Race Finder Tool

How TimeformUS is Different
TimeformUS Speed Figures
TimeformUS Spotlight Speed Figures
TimeformUS Pace Projector
• TimeformUS Running Lines
TimeformUS Pace Figures
• TimeformUS Bias Indicators
Full Result Charts
Trainer Ratings
• Pedigree Ratings
• Race Ratings
Enhanced Foreign Running Lines
• Running Style and Early/Late Ratings

 

 

Posted in Welcome to TimeformUS | 2 Comments

How TimeformUS is Different

Sign Up New To Our Site

Add a credit card to your account

TimeformUS
 is a new kind of horse racing Past Performances, optimized for tablets and PCs. At TimeformUS, we’re focused on helping you understand races faster. We’re perpetually refining the site and PPs: New features will be introduced regularly.  To start: here’s a top 10 list on how we’re making it easier to play the game; click the links next to each item for a deeper description or a video on how it works.

First thing’s first: if you’re looking for a PDF legend labeling all of our features, click here

1) How we make our Speed Figures
Our state-of-the-art, single-number measure of all-around performance.
Watch The Video>>
Learn More >>

2) Our Pace Projector
The breakthrough timesaver that tells you where they’re gonna be early in a race, and more.
Watch The Video>>
Learn More >>

3) Race Ratings
The TimeformUS Race Ratings help you quickly understand the quality of any race.
Watch The Video>>
Learn More >>

4) TimeformUS Pace Figures
Based on the fractional times run by each horse at each point of call in a race, TimeformUS Pace Figures give you a clear sense of the pace scenarios that a horse has faced in prior races.
Learn More >>

5) TimeformUS Color-Coded Bias Indicators
When we see a surface that favored frontrunners or closers in a horse’s previous race, we flag that running line with red or blue coloring.
Learn More >>

Sign Up New To Our Site

Add a credit card to your account

6) Timeform Foreign Running Lines for shippers
TimeformUS PPs offer unparalleled info on horses who previously ran overseas.
Learn More >>

7) TimeformUS Result Charts
One-click access from the 1-2-3 section of every running line,  TimeformUS Result Charts are color-coded  and fully customizable.
Learn More >>

8)  Simplified but smart TimeformUS Trainer Ratings
Our Trainer Ratings show you instantly how a trainer performs overall and in specific situations.
Watch The Video>>
Learn More >>

9) TimeformUS Race Finder
Use our Race Finder to quickly and easily find the types of races you like to play.
Watch The Video>>
Learn More >>

10) TimeformUS Pedigree Ratings based on today’s surface/distance
On a 100-point scale and based on the surface/distance of today’s race, factoring in the TimeformUS speed figures assigned to the horses in the family of today’s runner.
Learn More >>

Visit TimeformUS.com, or see below for even MORE ways in which TimeformUS is different:

Sign Up New To Our Site

Add a credit card to your account

Posted in Product features, Welcome to TimeformUS | Tagged , , , , , | 19 Comments

Saratoga Horses in Focus for Saturday, August 17

Interested in the full Saratoga Strategies package, which includes exclusive access to David Aragona’s Betting Strategies and Highlight Horse every day of the meet? Learn more ›

Race 1: Yankee Empire (#7)

  • Had significant trouble in his debut when steadied repeatedly after breaking slowly.
  • Has the pedigree to handle turf as a son of turf influence Cairo Prince out of a dam who is a half-sister to a turf stakes winner.
  • May play out as the controlling speed here in a race primarily filled with less experienced runners.

7-2 on ML

 ———

Race 5: Nakamura (#6)

  • Took both of his starts in 2019 impressively, winning in more dominant fashion than the final margins indicate.
  • Proved last year that he’s clearly better going longer distances, so the stretch-out figures to help his chances.
  • Gets a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz as he returns to the NYRA circuit.

6-1 on ML

———

Race 9: Blowout (#4)

  • Showed a ton of grit when holding off stablemate Nova Sol in the Wild Applause two back.
  • May not have appreciated being forced into front-running tactics last time.
  • Is more likely to appreciate the slight stretch-out to 1 1/16 miles than stablemate Regal Glory.

5-2 on ML

———

Race 10: Street Band (#5)

  • The 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned in the Indiana Oaks puts her nearly on par with the two favorites.
  • Got a terrible trip in the Kentucky Oaks, when rank early and wide every step of the way.
  • Has the tactical speed to work out a good trip in a field that is primarily composed of plodders.

10-1 on ML

Posted in Race Previews | Leave a comment

Saratoga Horses in Focus for Friday, August 16

Interested in the full Saratoga Strategies package, which includes exclusive access to David Aragona’s Betting Strategies and Highlight Horse every day of the meet? Learn more ›

Race 3: Shennan (#6)

  • May not have appreciated boggy going in his U.S. debut last time, which was run during a rainstorm.
  • Was compromised by a slow break last time.
  • Showed real promise in Ireland prior to the layoff.

7-2 on ML

———

Race 5: Fuel the Bern (#6)

  • Has been in the best form of his career ever since he was turned back to be a dirt sprinter.
  • Was hardly disgraced at this level when last seen in May, as he understandably faded after chasing a fast pace.
  • Danny Gargan’s horses have been running extremely well at this meet.

5-1 on ML

———

Race 7: Up the Ante (#1)

  • The Pace Projector is predicting a No Speed situation with this horse clearly in front, a position that he prefers.
  • Ran well over this course in the Saranac last year, proving that he can run well outside of Belmont.
  • Gets needed class relief after facing much tougher company in the Monmouth Stakes last time.

5-2 on ML

———

Race 9: Another Miracle (#3)

  • Will be very difficult to beat if he transfers that 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure to turf.
  • Is bred to handle turf as a son of turf influence American Pharoah from a turf/synth female family.
  • The Pace Projector is predicting that he may just be too fast for these in the early going.

7-5 on ML

 

Posted in Race Previews | Leave a comment

Saratoga Horses in Focus for Thursday, August 15

Interested in the full Saratoga Strategies package, which includes exclusive access to David Aragona’s Betting Strategies and Highlight Horse every day of the meet? Learn more ›

Race 3: Tale of Silence (#4)

  • Is finally dropping into a realistic spot off a steady diet of graded stakes races that may have been too tough.
  • Was compromised by a wide trip in the Met Mile last time and a slow pace in the Gulfstream Park Mile the time before that.
  • Ran one of the best races of his career going this distance at Saratoga when fourth in the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens.

5-2 on ML

———

Race 7: Tzipi (#5)

  • Took to turf well in her maiden win, getting the victory despite racing greenly.
  • Lost all chance when she got away awkwardly from the gate last time.
  • Linda Rice gets a 100 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with the Blinkers On move.

10-1 on ML

———

Race 8: Bonita Bianca (#2)

  • Has arguably run some of her best races over sprint distances.
  • The last time she raced in a sprint was when she won this race last year.
  • Should get an honest pace to close into with speeds Baby Boss, Fair Regis, and Carrera Cat signed on.

9-2 on ML

 

Posted in Race Previews | Leave a comment

Saratoga Horses in Focus for Wednesday, August 14

Interested in the full Saratoga Strategies package, which includes exclusive access to David Aragona’s Betting Strategies and Highlight Horse every day of the meet? Learn more ›

Race 5: Katama Moonlight (#2)

  • Was green in her debut when closing belatedly for third.
  • Is bred to relish any added ground she can get as a full-sister to dirt route stakes winner Noble Moon.
  • Has reportedly been working very well for this return to the races.

4-1 on ML

———

Race 9: Yes I See (#9)

  • Seems to be rounding back into top form for Robertino Diodoro, who is having a strong meet.
  • Curious that he’s only run on dirt recently, since he was always best as a turf horse in past seasons.
  • Has shown improved tactical speed recently, which should be an asset in a largely paceless affair.

6-1 on ML

———

Race 10: Subsidiary (#12)

  • Displayed the ability to handle turf in that fourth-place finish in June.
  • Deserves a chance to sprint on turf since she’s bred to sprint and has been most effective in shorter races on dirt and synthetic.
  • Joel Rosario should be able to work out a good stalking trip from this outside post.

6-1 on ML

Posted in Race Previews | Leave a comment

Saratoga Horses in Focus for Sunday, August 11

Interested in the full Saratoga Strategies package, which includes exclusive access to David Aragona’s Betting Strategies and Highlight Horse every day of the meet? Learn more ›

Race 1: One Eyed Jack (#2)

  • Is bred to stretch out, being out of a dam who is a full-sister to turf router Doctor Mounty and a half to dirt router Dabster.
  • Was compromised by a slow pace in his debut when gamely chasing home the two early leaders.
  • That debut speed figure was validated when runner-up Free Enterprise came back to run a strong second at Saratoga.

5-2 on ML

———

Race 5: Mama Mary (#8)

  • Has been intended for turf in all 6 career starts, but has only gotten 2 chances to run over it.
  • A few horses have returned to run faster out of her last race, indicating that the speed figures could probably be higher.
  • Appears to be working very well since her last victory.

5-1 on ML

———

Race 8: Cookie Dough (#2)

  • Her last 4 TimeformUS Speed Figures are faster than all of her rivals have run yet this year.
  • Did well to hang on for second in the Victory Ride after setting a very fast pace, indicated by red color-coded pace figures.
  • Has the stamina to handle 7 furlongs, since she’s excelled going longer in prior starts.

9-5 on ML

———

Race 9: Sister Peacock (#3)

  • Is 4-for-4 sprinting, having only lost going a mile or farther.
  • May be better on turf than her form suggests, since 3 of her 4 turf efforts have come in route races.
  • Showed the ability to rate alongside another horse in each of her last two starts, so she may be able to adapt her running style in this speed-laden field.

8-1 on ML

Posted in Race Previews | Leave a comment

Saratoga Horses in Focus for Saturday, August 10

Interested in the full Saratoga Strategies package, which includes exclusive access to David Aragona’s Betting Strategies and Highlight Horse every day of the meet? Learn more ›

Race 3: My Sacred Place (#4)

  • Jason Servis gets an excellent 99 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with horses trying turf for the first time.
  • Was striding out in his first couple of starts like a horse that wants more ground and grass.
  • Should handle the surface as a son of good turf influence Temple City.

6-1 on ML

———

Race 8: Green Light Go (#3)

  • Was one of the most visually impressive 2-year-olds at Belmont, towering over his foes in victory.
  • Is bred to be a fast, precocious runner, since his dam was a Grade 1-placed sprinter.
  • Worked like a horse who is doing very well in his most recent drill on August 6.

2-1 on ML

———

Race 9: Uni (#3)

  • Her TimeformUS Late Pace Rating of 124 is the highest in this field, and the race should feature some pace for her to close into.
  • Has been unstoppable at this one-mile distance, winning 5 straight races over this trip.
  • Is not meeting the toughest group of males for a Grade 1 race.

5-2 on ML

———

Race 10: La Chancla (#4)

  • DRF Formulator Fact: Rodolphe Brisset is 7 for 11 (73%, $7.14 ROI) with last-out maiden winners on dirt.
  • Finished strongly in her maiden win last time, beating a solid field.
  • Has already run fast enough to beat these and arguably has the most upside.

5-2 on ML

Posted in Race Previews | Leave a comment

Saratoga Horses in Focus for Friday, August 9

Interested in the full Saratoga Strategies package, which includes exclusive access to David Aragona’s Betting Strategies and Highlight Horse every day of the meet? Learn more ›

Race 5: Spinoff (#2)

  • The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and he has tactical speed.
  • Was wide against a rail bias when only losing the Belmont Stakes by 3 lengths.
  • Worked very well in blinkers last week, so he may be ready for a step forward.

2-1 on ML

———

Race 8: Victorine (#10)

  • Showed real promise in France, finishing a close fourth in a tough Group 3 Prix de Psyche.
  • Encountered boggy going in both U.S. starts last season and she may prefer firmer ground.
  • Attracts the hot-riding Irad Ortiz for her 4-year-old debut.

5-2 on ML

———

Race 9: Killybegs Captain (#2)

  • Was badly compromised by a stumbling start and a slow pace last time.
  • Has been steadily improving throughout his 5-year-old season and is in career form now.
  • The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead and he should be forwardly placed from the inside.

5-2 on ML

Posted in Race Previews | 1 Comment