Welcome to the TimeformUS Blog

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Hello and welcome to the TimeformUS blog!

The purpose of this blog is to explain features of TimeformUS Past Performances, a new horse racing product which is optimized for tablets and the web. Currently, you can purchase TimeformUS Past Performances at TimeformUS.com or in the the TVG Handicapping Store.

This blog is also a great place to ask questions and provide feedback about our new product. Use the links below to get started, and if you have questions, email us at  Support@TimeformUS.com

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More TimeformUS How-To Videos

How to use TimeformUS Past Performances
TimeformUS Help Legend (PDF)
The Preview Page
The Fast PPs
• Result Charts
• The Race Finder Tool

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How TimeformUS is Different
TimeformUS Speed Figures
TimeformUS Spotlight Speed Figures
TimeformUS Pace Projector
• TimeformUS Running Lines
TimeformUS Pace Figures
• TimeformUS Bias Indicators
Full Result Charts
Trainer Ratings
• Pedigree Ratings
• Race Ratings
Enhanced Foreign Running Lines
• Running Style and Early/Late Ratings

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How TimeformUS is Different

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TimeformUS
 is a new kind of horse racing Past Performances, optimized for tablets and PCs. At TimeformUS, we’re focused on helping you understand races faster. We’re perpetually refining the site and PPs: New features will be introduced regularly.  To start: here’s a top 10 list on how we’re making it easier to play the game; click the links next to each item for a deeper description or a video on how it works.

First thing’s first: if you’re looking for a PDF legend labeling all of our features, click here

1) How we make our Speed Figures
Our state-of-the-art, single-number measure of all-around performance.
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2) Our Pace Projector
The breakthrough timesaver that tells you where they’re gonna be early in a race, and more.
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3) Race Ratings
The TimeformUS Race Ratings help you quickly understand the quality of any race.
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4) TimeformUS Pace Figures
Based on the fractional times run by each horse at each point of call in a race, TimeformUS Pace Figures give you a clear sense of the pace scenarios that a horse has faced in prior races.
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5) TimeformUS Color-Coded Bias Indicators
When we see a surface that favored frontrunners or closers in a horse’s previous race, we flag that running line with red or blue coloring.
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6) Timeform Foreign Running Lines for shippers
TimeformUS PPs offer unparalleled info on horses who previously ran overseas.
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7) TimeformUS Result Charts
One-click access from the 1-2-3 section of every running line,  TimeformUS Result Charts are color-coded  and fully customizable.
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8)  Simplified but smart TimeformUS Trainer Ratings
Our Trainer Ratings show you instantly how a trainer performs overall and in specific situations.
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9) TimeformUS Race Finder
Use our Race Finder to quickly and easily find the types of races you like to play.
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10) TimeformUS Pedigree Ratings based on today’s surface/distance
On a 100-point scale and based on the surface/distance of today’s race, factoring in the TimeformUS speed figures assigned to the horses in the family of today’s runner.
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Visit TimeformUS.com, or see below for even MORE ways in which TimeformUS is different:

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Aqueduct Monday Highlight Horse: Lady Luciano is back at the right level

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Aqueduct | Race 2 | Post Time 1:20 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 

Picture Day was made the favorite on the morning line, but the Pace Projector is predicting that this race will feature a pace that favors horses on or near the lead, and she is a confirmed closer. For that reason, I want to focus on the two runners most likely to be forwardly placed in the early going. They are Ducasa and Lady Luciano.

Ducasa is coming off a win against slightly weaker foes. While she did successfully negotiate two turns that day, she is more of a sprinter and should be suited by this turnback in distance. She makes sense, but I prefer the other speed, LADY LUCIANO (#4).

ladyluciano_pp

This mare was simply overmatched last time and was also involved in a pace that ultimately collapsed. In her start before that, she got a terrible trip. After breaking slowly, she was never able to get over toward the inside and ended up making a four-wide premature move around the far turn. I think she’s in better form than it appears and figures to work out a good trip.

THE PLAY 

Win: 4

Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,7

Trifecta: 4 with 1,2,7 with 1,2,3,7

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Monday February 20th

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Race 2:

Lady Luciano (#4)

Is projected to be stalking a slow early pace.

Was overmatched last time when contesting a pace that collapsed.

Ran much better than it appears two back when she made a four-wide premature move around the turn.

4-1 on ML

Race 5:

Kohlhase (#6)

The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he’ll be on the lead in a situation favoring the frontrunner.

Ran well at Laurel last time and the winner came back to win in a tougher spot.

His loss two back looks better in retrospect as the two runners that beat him have returned to run very well.

2-1 on ML

Race 7:

Midnight Champagne (#3)

The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that she’ll be in front in a situation favoring the early leader.

Chris Englehart gets a 91 Trainer Rating with runners coming off layoffs of this type.

Has run plenty of competitive speed figures.

3-1 on ML

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Aqueduct Sunday Highlight Horse: Matrooh faces a tough foe in his return to the races

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Aqueduct | Race 5 | Post Time 2:50 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 

Matrooh (#1A) is the best horse running on this card. This runner was in spectacular form at the end of 2015, winning the Bold Ruler before finishing a game third behind the almighty Tonalist in the Cigar Mile. If he runs back to either of those efforts, he is probably going to win this race. And there’s reason to expect that he could be ready to fire a good effort off the layoff given how well he ran when returning from a similar break in March 2015. However, he’s now a 7-year-old gelding, and his price won’t be helped by the presence of his coupled stablemate, who is not without a chance himself. I think there’s at least one interesting alternative if Matrooh underperforms.

doyouknowsomething_pp

DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING (#2) ran extremely well to win two back. I know that the rail was yielding an advantage that day, but he still set a strong pace and really had to dig in to hold off an in-form Send It In. While it appears that he regressed last time, I’m not sure that he actually did. He was racing two- to three-wide against the gold rail Jan. 14 and did well to hang with winner Sunny Ridge until the late stages. Today he figures to be the main speed again and has routinely run his best races when he’s sent to the front. The Pace Projector is forecasting a scenario that favors the leader, so Angel Arroyo has no reason to be aggressive.

THE PLAY 

Win: 2
Trifecta:
1,2 with 1,2 with ALL

 

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Kentucky Derby Prep Analysis: Highlighting some pricier alternatives to Uncontested in the Southwest

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>Go to the FREE PPs for Southwest at Oaklawn | Post Time 5:09 CST Monday

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Oaklawn’s path to the Kentucky Derby officially kicked off last month with the Smarty Jones, but things get more serious on Monday as 13 3-year-olds meet in Arkansas for a fantastic edition of the $500,000, Grade 3 Southwest Stakes. The two most respected Kentucky Derby contenders coming into this race, Uncontested and Lookin at Lee, are drawn alongside each other in the starting gate.

southwest_paceprojector

There is a fair amount of speed signed on for this race in addition to Uncontested. The TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts that the Smarty Jones winner will be clearly in front early, but that the pace will be fast. Speed types such as Cool Arrow, Petrov, and One Liner should all be applying pressure through the early stages of this race.

Let’s go through the entire field:

#1, COOL ARROW (12-1): It’s hard to fault a runner who’s been out of the exacta only once in six career starts and comes into this race having won three of his last four. That said, this colt will face a much more difficult task today. His dominant win in the Springboard Mile was largely attributable to the crawling early pace (indicated by the blue color-coded fractions in TimeformUS PPs) that he was allowed to set. He had previously lost to Warrior’s Club at Churchill Downs and that one was no match for Uncontested in the Smarty Jones. Given the likelihood of a fast pace in this spot, I prefer others.

#2, SILVER DUST (10-1): Of those coming into this race off maiden wins, I find this runner to be most intriguing. He ran like a horse that had no idea what was going on in his debut as he broke slowly and then was drifting in while on his wrong lead for half of the stretch drive. Once he finally did switch leads, he leveled off nicely and finished well. He clearly benefited from that experience in his next start, in which he was much more professional. That day he rated kindly in behind horses and displayed an effective turn of foot once switched out in the stretch.

silverdust_ppSilver Dust hasn’t been seen for three months now, but his trainer, Randy Morse, has spectacular numbers with runners coming off layoffs of this type. It’s easy to see in TimeformUS PPs that he gets a 100 Trainer Rating with this move. When digging deeper using DRF Formulator, it’s revealed that he is 19 for 83 (23 percent) with horses coming off layoffs of 75 to 150 days, yielding a healthy ROI of $3.19. This horse has the pedigree to keep improving with age and distance, and I believe he’s one of the live longshots in this field. 

#3, UNCONTESTED (5-2): The Smarty Jones winner is obviously the horse to beat in this race. He earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure for his win in the Smarty Jones, which is some eight points faster than the next-best speed figure in the field. He also enjoys an advantage when looking at TimeformUS figures.

uncontested_pp

The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but this horse has proven his ability to lay down some taxing early fractions and keep on going. I believe that he’s the most likely winner of this race, but he’s not going to offer any value at a relatively short price – and I imagine he’ll drift lower than his 5-2 morning line odds. He’ll be prominently featured in my play, but there are other runners at better prices that I want to focus on getting into the exotics.

#4, LOOKIN AT LEE (8-1): Uncontested has run the fastest speed figures, but this Steve Asmussen trainee has kept the best company, having run well against champion Classic Empire in the Breeders’ Futurity before picking up the pieces to be fourth behind that foe in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s been installed as the fourth choice on the morning line, but this colt is very much the other main player in this race.

lookinatlee_pp

Like all deep closers, Lookin at Lee is reliant on the pace. If the fast pace that is predicted does indeed develop, it will greatly enhance his chances. Like many of Lookin at Lucky’s progeny, he improved with distance and racing as a 2-year-old, and that continued forward progression will give him a real shot to defeat the favorite here. I highly doubt he’ll go off at his 8-1 morning line, but you should bet him at that price if he does.

 #5, ROWDY THE WARRIOR (20-1): He picked up the pieces after Uncontested ran the others off their feet in the Smarty Jones, while earning career-best Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figures. However, he still needs to run faster if he’s going to be a major player in this race and I’m more inclined to look at those with more upside.

#6, CU RAHY (50-1): He’s never run a particularly fast race and was drowned by Uncontested in the Smarty Jones. Pass. 

#7, WARRIOR’S CLUB (12-1): I wonder if this horse would prefer to be fighting it out on the front end early in his races, because he seemed to lose interest when taken farther back off the pace in the Smarty Jones. I don’t want to be too hard on him for that poor effort over a sloppy track because he had previously run so well over dry going in the Kentucky Jockey Club, finishing ahead of Uncontested. Prior to that he easily defeated today’s rival Cool Arrow, also over a fast track. He feels like one of a few horses that could get ignored in the wagering, but he’s one of the main players in my view. 

#8, PETROV (5-1): This grey colt was assigned the difficult task of chasing down Uncontested last time. While he couldn’t stay with that runner around the far turn of the Smarty Jones, he nevertheless was game to hang on to second through the stretch while well clear of the rest of the field. He’s shown talent from the start of his career and has not put forth a bad effort in three starts. Given the amount of speed in this race, I wonder if Jose Ortiz will be instructed to take this son of Flatter farther off the pace, as they did two back at Aqueduct. Despite being so lightly raced, he’s shown great professionalism in his races and should be able to accommodate a change in tactics. On the other hand, I’m not totally convinced that he really wants to go much farther than a mile and stamina could become an issue.

#9, DILETTANTE (15-1): Like most of D. Wayne Lukas’s young runners, this colt took a while to figure the game out. However, ever since he was finally stretched out in distance, things have started to click. He was a good second to Silver Dust three races back after waiting for room and coming through a tight hole along the rail. You can throw out his race two back when he got an impossibly wide trip. Then last time, he finally put it all together and broke out of the maiden ranks with a commanding win. He earned a lofty Beyer Speed Figure for that effort (the TimeformUS number was lower), but regardless of how fast he ran, he’s going to have to handle a significant step up in class today. He’s certainly bred to be a nice horse, by top sire Unbridled’s Song out of a full sister to Grade 1 winner Awesome Humor. I won’t be surprised if he’s competitive in stakes at some point, but I’m not sure he’s quite there yet.

#10, HENCE (20-1): Here’s another Calumet Farm-owned runner, though this one is trained by Steve Asmussen. This Street Boss colt ran well to finish just over two lengths behind eventual Lecomte winner Guest Suit in his second start as a 2-year-old and followed that up with a game second-place finish in a salty maiden race in November. Hence’s last race is worth viewing because he ran much better than the three-quarter-length margin of victory would suggest. He took a clear lead coming off the far turn and looked poised to run on to a decisive victory before he ducked in sharply at the eighth pole. He completely lost his action after just barely avoiding a collision with the rail, and gave away all of his margin to the eventual runner-up. However, he quickly composed himself and battled back gamely to get the win. If he had kept a straight course, he obviously would have run a speed figure that was some 6 to 8 points higher, if not more. That kind of number would put him in the mix and his versatile running style should allow him to work out a decent trip.

#11, ONE LINER (7-2): He was laid up for many months after his encouraging debut, in which he beat two horses that would come back to finish second and third in the Grade 1 Hopeful. His return to the races this past month at Gulfstream was encouraging. He earned a strong speed figure and finished well while being asked to gallop-out through the wire. However, an easy win as the odds-on favorite going six furlongs at Gulfstream is a completely separate task from making your graded stakes debut while stretching out to two turns. Can he overcome what is projected to be a fast pace while testing his stamina at this route distance?

oneliner_pp

Todd Pletcher’s statistics with 3-year-olds stretching out for the first time in graded stakes on the dirt suggest that we should be optimistic. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years Pletcher is 5 for 15 in this situation, yielding an ROI of $7.06. Now, that ROI is so large due to the presence of one gigantic price in the sample (Danza winning the Arkansas Derby), but 12 of those 15 have finished in the money, so his horses do typically run well. Despite those strong numbers, I still think this is a tough spot for this horse.

#12, P C COWBOY (30-1): He’s never run fast enough and is now moving from a trainer who gets a 98 TimeformUS Trainer Rating into the barn of a conditioner who gets just a 49 Trainer Rating.

#13, CHIEF KNOW IT ALL (12-1): I respect almost everything that Brad Cox sends out because his runners just routinely put in solid performances no matter the circumstances. However, this is a tough post position to overcome for a horse that would prefer to be forwardly placed. He beat a weak allowance field last time and is probably in over his head here.

THE PLAY

I think the proper wagering strategy in this race is to use the logical contenders – Uncontested (#3) and Lookin at Lee (#4) – with some larger prices in the exotics. The longshots that interest me most are Silver Dust (#2), Warrior’s Club (#7), and Hence (#10). I’ll focus on using them in exactas and trifectas.

Exacta Key Box: 2,7,10 with 2,3,4,7,10

Trifecta: 3,4 with 2,3,4,7,10 with 2,3,4,7,10

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Sunday February 19th

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Race 4:

No Hayne No Gayne (#5)

Was hindered by a wide trip against an inside speed bias on Jan. 14.

Hung in well after forcing a fast pace last time in her first route attempt.

May be able to control this race on the front end under an aggressive ride from Kendrick Carmouche.

3-1 on ML

 

Race 5:

Doyouknowsomething (#2)

Beat the talented Send It In when he won over this strip on Dec. 9.

Was racing wide throughout against a strong rail bias on Jan. 14.

The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the frontrunner.

7-2 on ML

 

Race 8:

Backsideofthemoon (#4)

Was shuffled back around the far turn when attempting to commence his rally last time.

Possesses the tactical speed to stay relatively close to the pace in a situation favoring the leaders.

Is in the best form of his career right now.

8-1 on ML

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Aqueduct Saturday Highlight Horse: Three Eighty Eight finds her true calling as a dirt router

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Aqueduct | Race 3 | Post Time 1:50 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 

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Even though a few of today’s rivals finished ahead of her last time, I am very interested in betting THREE EIGHTY EIGHT (#4) in this spot. This filly had raced around two turns before but had done so on turf, which is clearly not her preferred surface. She handled the switch to dirt without issue three races ago despite her connections electing to cut her back in distance to one-turn races.

threeeightyeight_pp

 

Last time, Three Eighty Eight tried a dirt route for the first time and undoubtedly ran the best race of her career. That event was dominated by speed horses, and runners trying to make runs from the back of the pack seemed to have difficulty making up ground. Not only was Three Eighty Eight ridden as one of the closers in that race, but she went wide around the far turn while attempting to make her move. Jose Ortiz waited a long time before really setting her down for the drive, but she finished strongly through the stretch once he got into her. I don’t mind the rider switch to this up-and-coming apprentice and believe this filly would offer value at anything around her morning-line price.

I’ll primarily use her with Storm Cell (#7), who finished second in the race that Three Eighty Eight is exiting, and Fire Key (#3), who could be dangerous on the front end now after the scratch of her main pace rival.

THE PLAY

Win: 4

Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,7

Trifecta: 4 with 3,7 with 3,5,7

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday February 18th

DontLetTheGamePassYouByfortfus

Race 3:
Three Eighty Eight (#4)

Closed well in a race that was dominated by speed horses last time.
Overcame a wide run around the far turn in that most recent start.
Should get a fair pace to close into with a few speeds signed on.
4-1 on ML.

Race 4:
Valiant Man (#6)

Closed well in debut after getting bumped at the start.
Michelle Nevin typically does better with second-time starters than debut runners.
His dam is a half-sister to millionaire Summer Colony, so this colt is bred to have a future.
10-1 on ML

 

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