Welcome to the TimeformUS Blog

Hello and welcome to the TimeformUS blog!

The purpose of this blog is to explain features of TimeformUS Past Performances, a new horse racing product which is optimized for tablets and the web. Currently, you can purchase TimeformUS Past Performances at TimeformUS.com or in the the TVG Handicapping Store.

This blog is also a great place to ask questions and provide feedback about our new product. Use the links below to get started, and if you have questions, email us at  Support@TimeformUS.com

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More TimeformUS How-To Videos

How to use TimeformUS Past Performances
TimeformUS Help Legend (PDF)
The Fast PPs
• Result Charts
• The Race Finder Tool

How TimeformUS is Different
TimeformUS Speed Figures
TimeformUS Spotlight Speed Figures
TimeformUS Pace Projector
• TimeformUS Running Lines
TimeformUS Pace Figures
• TimeformUS Bias Indicators
Full Result Charts
Trainer Ratings
• Pedigree Ratings
• Race Ratings
Enhanced Foreign Running Lines
• Running Style and Early/Late Ratings

 

 

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How TimeformUS is Different

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TimeformUS
 is a new kind of horse racing Past Performances, optimized for tablets and PCs. At TimeformUS, we’re focused on helping you understand races faster. We’re perpetually refining the site and PPs: New features will be introduced regularly.  To start: here’s a top 10 list on how we’re making it easier to play the game; click the links next to each item for a deeper description or a video on how it works.

First thing’s first: if you’re looking for a PDF legend labeling all of our features, click here

1) How we make our Speed Figures
Our state-of-the-art, single-number measure of all-around performance.
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2) Our Pace Projector
The breakthrough timesaver that tells you where they’re gonna be early in a race, and more.
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3) Race Ratings
The TimeformUS Race Ratings help you quickly understand the quality of any race.
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4) TimeformUS Pace Figures
Based on the fractional times run by each horse at each point of call in a race, TimeformUS Pace Figures give you a clear sense of the pace scenarios that a horse has faced in prior races.
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5) TimeformUS Color-Coded Bias Indicators
When we see a surface that favored frontrunners or closers in a horse’s previous race, we flag that running line with red or blue coloring.
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6) Timeform Foreign Running Lines for shippers
TimeformUS PPs offer unparalleled info on horses who previously ran overseas.
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7) TimeformUS Result Charts
One-click access from the 1-2-3 section of every running line,  TimeformUS Result Charts are color-coded  and fully customizable.
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8)  Simplified but smart TimeformUS Trainer Ratings
Our Trainer Ratings show you instantly how a trainer performs overall and in specific situations.
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9) TimeformUS Race Finder
Use our Race Finder to quickly and easily find the types of races you like to play.
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10) TimeformUS Pedigree Ratings based on today’s surface/distance
On a 100-point scale and based on the surface/distance of today’s race, factoring in the TimeformUS speed figures assigned to the horses in the family of today’s runner.
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Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Swift One can step forward second off the layoff

Belmont Park | Race 8 | Post Time 5:38 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
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The horse to beat in this spot is Appealing Henry (#7), who gets some necessary class relief after failing to measure up against tougher starter allowance foes last time. He had run reasonably well in two prior starts against New York-breds, and his early speed makes him a wire-to-wire threat here. I’m certainly using him, but I think there are some other options to consider at better prices.

Conquest Expresso (#5) deserves another chance after blowing the break last time. The early pace of that race was extremely slow, which basically cost him any chance of getting back into contention. He had previously run speed figures that make him a player here.

I’m definitely using both, but my top pick is SWIFT ONE (#3). This horse was given some time on the shelf after going off form for his current connections last summer. He returned on Apr. 27 at Belmont with an effort that is better than it seems at first glance. He was away somewhat awkwardly, placing him near the back of the pack. However, rather than sitting back to make one run, his rider sent him to make a premature wide move around the far turn. He actually got up into third at the top of the stretch before flattening out late. He figures to benefit from that return effort, and I think he can make some noise at price if he steps forward in his second start off the layoff.

THE PLAY

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 3 with 5,7 with 2,4,5,7,8​

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Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: An improved Mentality can upset the Soaring Softly

Belmont Park | Race 9 | Post Time 5:33 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
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Chad Brown holds a pretty strong hand in this stakes, as both of his fillies appear to be formidable. Brattata (#9) has to be respected on the cutback to seven furlongs. Chad Brown has excellent numbers with horses turning back in distance on the grass at NYRA tracks (17 for 55, 31 percent, $2.58 ROI) over the past five years. This filly actually ran much better than it appears in her two sprint starts as a 2-year-old. She had to overcome a wide trip against a bias at Saratoga and then encountered a ton of trouble when closing in her second start going this distance. She’s had trouble finishing off her two-turn races, so the return to sprinting makes sense.

A trio of fillies in this race exit the Mizdirection Stakes, and the Brown-trained Africa finished ahead of two of the rivals she will face again here. While all of the fillies coming out of that race got wide trips, I thought that Africa (#8) may have gotten the best trip of those three given her proximity to a moderate pace that held together.

The horse that I want to bet out of that race is MENTALITY (#2). She prefers to be placed a bit closer to the early pace, yet she was shuffled out of position moving down the backstretch, going from about sixth to last in the span of a quarter-mile. Despite losing all of that position, she actually made a strong late bid in the lane to nearly get up for third. I appreciate that she seemed to handle soft ground at Keeneland last year when she ran an excellent race in the Jessamine. Furthermore, based on her most recent effort, she may have really improved over the winter.

THE PLAY

Win: 2
Exacta key box: 2 with 1, 3, 8, 9
Trifecta: 2, 9 with 2, 9 with 1, 3, 4, 8

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Belmont Park Horses in Focus for Saturday, May 19th

Race 4: Cloud Control (#6)

Participated in an extremely fast early pace last time (indicated by red color-coding in PPs) that fell apart late.

Has run better than it appears in both starts since the claim by Tom Morley.

Should appreciate the turnback to 7 furlongs.

5-1 on ML

 

Race 6: Shamrocked (#3)

Was always out of position after a poor start last time.

The addition of blinkers should make a difference since he has a propensity to drift late in his races.

DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past two years, Ray Handal is 8 for 39 (21 percent, $3.47 ROI) first off the claim.

6-1 on ML

 

Race 9: Mentality (#2)

Was shuffled back in the early going last time and had to rally from much farther back in the pack than she would have preferred.

Appears to be an improved filly as a three-year-old.

Handled soft turf fairly well when she ran better than it seems in last fall’s Jessamine at Keeneland.

8-1 on ML​

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Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Getoffmyback stretches out in distance first off the claim

Belmont Park | Race 4 | Post Time 3:09 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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If this race gets transferred to the dirt, I want to bet GETOFFMYBACK (#7). Trainer Ray Handal has done a fantastic job with his claims over the past two years (8 for 38, $3.47 ROI), and I like the confidence being displayed as he moves this horse up in class significantly. Most recently, he ran an excellent race against the classy Morning Buzz on Feb. 18 over a sloppy, sealed racetrack that should be similar to the one he encounters on Friday.

Getoffmyback did not perform as well for the John Toscano barn, but his last race was a step back in the right direction. The one-mile distance is a bit of a question mark, but he has run well going seven furlongs and has finished second going this far in the past. He possesses the tactical speed to get a good early position behind likely pacesetter Doyouknowsomething, and I’m hoping the track can carry him the rest of the way.

Obviously, his main danger is Old Upstart (#10), who also handles a wet track. However, Belmont typically gets somewhat speed-favoring with a lot of rain, and that could work against this closer. I can’t strongly endorse anyone else. Donji (#9) is unproven over a wet track, though he would have a chance were he to handle it. Doyouknowsomething’s (#6) recent form has fallen apart, so I’m skeptical about him leading these all the way. I would also throw in Poshsky (#12), who has run some decent dirt races in the past year and owns two wins over a wet track.

THE PLAY

Win: 7

Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,9,10,12

Trifecta: 7 with 9,10,12 with 4,6,9,10,12

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TimeformUS Analysis: Hard to build a case against Justify in Preakness

Grade 1 Preakness | 1 3/16 Miles, Dirt, 3-year-olds | Pimlico, Race 13, 6:48 p.m. (ET) | TimeformUS PPs
Most Likely Winner: Justify (#7)

Justify’s quest to become racing’s 13th Triple Crown winner takes him to Baltimore on Saturday for the Preakness Stakes. The conditions figure to be similar to those he encountered in the Kentucky Derby, as rain is predicted to continue throughout the week, intensifying in the 24 hours before the race.

The main difference between this race and the first jewel of the Triple Crown is the size of the field, as only seven rivals will line up to face the Derby winner. Half of the field is composed of so-called “new shooters,” who come into the race fresher than those exiting the Kentucky Derby. Among the septet of challengers, Justify’s only serious threat is expected to come from last year’s 2-year-old male champion, Good Magic. The Chad Brown trainee will be looking to erase the two-length deficit that separated the pair of blazed chestnut colts in Louisville.

Despite the smaller field size, there is no lack of speed signed on for this race. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace and shows Justify (#7) clearly in front early in the race. A similar scenario was predicted in the Kentucky Derby, where Mike Smith used Justify’s tactical speed to rate just outside of the leader for the first six furlongs before forging to the front. One would imagine the game plan would be the same here given his advantageous outside draw. Diamond King (#4) is widely regarded as the most likely leader given his sprint speed. He’s shown the ability to rate in recent starts, but he likely needs to secure the early lead to have his best chance against a field of this caliber. Others who figure to be attending the pace are Sporting Chance (#3) and Good Magic (#5). Quip (#1) and Tenfold (#6) also have run their best races when on or near the lead, but neither has encountered a pace scenario this taxing.

Let’s go through the field:

#1, QUIP (12-1): This colt goes out for the same owners as Justify. His connections decided to skip that race, feeling that the Preakness would be a more realistic goal at this stage of his development. He ran well to beat the gritty Flameaway in his seasonal debut at Tampa back in March, and he battled on willingly when second in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby last time. The form of the Oaklawn race was not flattered in the Kentucky Derby, as Magnum Moon, Solomini, and Combatant all put in dismal efforts. However, that may be partly due to the circumstances under which the Derby was run. Quip appears to be as talented as a few other challengers in this race, yet the expected dynamics of this Preakness are unlikely to suit him. He’s shown that he needs to be forwardly placed in order to run well, having performed poorly the one time he was forced to rate behind horses in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Given his grinding style, it’s hard to imagine him keeping up with horses like Justify, Diamond King, and Sporting Chance early in this race. In fact, TimeformUS assigns him the second-lowest Early Pace Rating in the field, only ahead of Lone Sailor. He’s going to take some money due to his strong recent record, yet I doubt he’s up to this challenge. Pass.

#2, LONE SAILOR (15-1): His trip in the Derby was not the worst, nor was it the best. Sent to the rail soon after the start, he stayed there for basically the entire race, saving ground while others had to go around tiring runners. The first six furlongs went perfectly, but he found himself in a difficult position once the field moved into the far turn. He had been racing side-by-side with eventual third-place finisher Audible on the backstretch. However, whereas that one was able to move up between horses, Lone Sailor got stymied in behind the tiring Free Drop Billy while pinned down on the rail. Jockey James Graham was unwavering in his determination to squeeze through a tight hole inside of that runner, but it took Lone Sailor about a sixteenth of a mile to cooperate. Once he did find a clear inside path, he burst through and quickly advanced into sixth. He tired somewhat in the last furlong, by which point almost all runners were laboring. All things considered, it was a solid effort for a colt who had put in his fair share of poor performances on the road to the Derby. I get the feeling that Lone Sailor is finally figuring the game out after a series of missteps. Furthermore, he’s made two starts over sloppy, sealed racetracks, and he handled both as well as could be expected. Since he’s the one true closer in a field filled with speed, new rider Irad Ortiz Jr. is likely to take him well back and just hope to pick up as many pieces as possible. Given the amount of dubious pace players in this field, don’t be surprised to see him flying past a lot of tiring runners in the lane. It would take a herculean effort to beat Justify, but Lone Sailor is a candidate for all of the slots underneath the favorite. An exacta threat.

#3, SPORTING CHANCE (30-1): Little has gone according to plan this year for the 2017 Hopeful winner. He missed his chance to make it into the Kentucky Derby when he reverted to his juvenile antics in the Blue Grass, swerving wildly through the lane while hampering his foes. Entered in the Pat Day Mile as a consolation prize, he actually ran quite well to be fourth. He was shuffled out of position on the backstretch and did well to rally past many rivals in the lane despite racing wide. However, that effort came going one turn, and now he’s being asked to stretch out again. I believe that shorter distances are what Sporting Chance needs at this point, so it’s hard to envision him as more than a pace factor here. Pass.

#4, DIAMOND KING (30-1): While he didn’t run badly in the Federico Tesio, his winning performance was not nearly strong enough to suggest that he can compete against the top 3-year-olds in the nation going two turns. It’s a shame that he’s running here because Diamond King is actually a pretty talented sprinter who is missing opportunities to shine. He ran an amazing race to win the Heft Stakes back in December and was hindered by a poor start two back in the Swale. He’s probably going to play the role of Promises Fulfilled in this race, and that hasn’t been a successful strategy against a fast horse like Justify. Pass.

#5, GOOD MAGIC (3-1): He’s the one standing in the way of Justify’s Triple Crown bid. Whereas the others would all need to improve significantly to beat Justify, Good Magic has already shown himself to be a worthy challenger. His 3-year-old campaign began in unspectacular fashion, but he really matured into his role as defending champion leading up to the Run for the Roses. Justify did beat him soundly and fairly, but there is no doubt that Good Magic ran the second-best race. His performance was far superior to those of closers like Audible and Instilled Regard, who were merely picking up pieces at the end. The pace of the Kentucky Derby was extremely taxing, and Good Magic was always within a couple lengths of the lead. Aside from him and Justify, every other horse near the early lead lost by 23 lengths or more. Good Magic made a serious bid at the top of the stretch but could never quite get on even terms with the eventual winner. While it’s certainly possible that he could make up that two-length deficit in Baltimore, I wonder if the horse can mentally and physically rebound from his exertion in Louisville. After all, Kentucky Derby second-place finishers do not have a strong record in this race. Over the past 50 years, the top two finishers in the Derby have squared off in the Preakness 33 times, and Derby runners-up have only managed three wins to the Derby winners’ 16. Furthermore, as great of a trainer as Chad Brown is, wheeling back in two weeks is not something that he prepares his horses to handle. Nevertheless, I’m glad to see Good Magic in the race because he certainly deserves to take his shot. The second-likeliest winner.

#6, TENFOLD (20-1): In many ways, he’s just like Quip, except he’s probably going to be a better price. He’s run well under favorable circumstances and has never faced the taxing pace scenario he will encounter in this race. While he earned a respectable speed figure in the Arkansas Derby, I have lingering doubts about the overall quality of that race. He’s shown the ability to rate behind horses, so perhaps they will elect to place him farther off the pace this time. Yet, regardless of tactics, he hasn’t yet proven he’s up to the task of competing against elite 3-year-olds. Pass.

#7, JUSTIFY (1-2): His Kentucky Derby victory deserves every bit of the praise it has elicited. The early pace was historically fast. The 170 TimeformUS Pace Rating for the half-mile split was the highest in the past 15 years. Furthermore, most of the Derbies that have featured extremely fast paces were won by horses who rallied from far off the pace, such as Orb, Street Sense, and I’ll Have Another. Justify’s 169 Pace Rating at the half-mile (1 point lower than that of leader Promises Fulfilled) is an astounding 19 points higher than any other Derby winner during that 15-year period. Some have misguidedly cited the slow closing fractions of this Derby as evidence that Justify may be vulnerable. However, closing fractions are relative in these situations, and Justify’s final quarter-mile was among the fastest of any of the 20 runners in the race. It’s not as if the closers were making up significant ground over the final quarter-mile, and many were actually losing ground to the winner. If Justify had a weakness, it would have been exposed in the Derby. As long as he breaks cleanly, he figures to work out the same outside stalking trip in this race. It’s unlikely that the fractions will be nearly as fast this time, yet he showed in the Santa Anita Derby that he’s perfectly capable of adapting to a less-frenzied early tempo. It’s hard to find any serious flaws in this horse. If he runs his race, he’s going to win.

#8, BRAVAZO (20-1): Considering that many believed he didn’t even belong in the Derby, he actually ran a pretty strong race to be sixth. He never got an opportunity to save ground, chasing four to five wide around both turns. Despite losing valuable position around the bends, he never stopped running, finishing just as strongly as Lone Sailor, who had taken a shorter path around the oval. He clearly relished the wet going, so rain in the forecast should aid his cause. He could get somewhat overlooked here, yet he has better credentials than many of the other challengers. An exotics player.

To see how we’re going to play the race, get our Betting Strategies as part of the TimeformUS Preakness Package.

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Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Sophie N drops in against New York-breds and stretches out

Belmont Park | Race 7 | Post Time 4:46 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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Pas de Deuce (#4) is the horse to beat off her respectable maiden effort. That April 28 field was actually pretty strong for this level, and the race featured a swift early pace that this filly was attending. She’s bred to stretch out as a daughter of Curlin, but her dam was primarily a sprinter. A mile should be within her scope, and her early speed should make her dangerous if we’re dealing with a wet track like Wednesday’s. I’m certainly using the favorite, but there are some others to consider.

I want to bet SOPHIE N (#5), who makes her second start for connections who know how to win with big prices. Over the past five years, Corby Caiazzo is 5 for 17 ($4.96 ROI) with maidens going from sprints to routes on dirt. While she wasn’t facing the strongest field at Parx last time, this is a drop from open maidens into New York-bred company. There isn’t obvious stamina pedigree on either side of her pedigree, but progeny of Yes It’s True actually can go longer. A mile should be appropriate. It’s also a good sign to see a live rider like Junior Alvarado take the mount.

I’ll user Sophie N with Pas de Deuce, as well as other logical contenders like Anne’s Song (#1) and A Song for Sue (#2). At a bigger price, I also want to throw in Mrs. Orb (#6), who deserves a second chance on the surface switch after racing greenly in her debut.

THE PLAY

Win: 5

Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,6​

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Belmont Park Horses in Focus for Thursday, May 17th

Race 5: Very Very Stella (#5)

Was hindered by an extremely slow pace last time (indicated by blue color-coded pace figures in PPs).
Gets a needed drop in class.
Has run well over wet tracks in the past and there’s rain in the forecast.
6-1 on ML

Race 7: Sophie N (#5)

Was slowly away from the gate and sluggish in her debut.
Drops out of an open maiden race into New York-bred company for her second start.
DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Corby Caiazzo is 5 for 17 ($4.96 ROI) with maidens going from sprints to routes on the dirt.
6-1 on ML

Race 8: Mo Flash (#9)

Had significant trouble in a few of her turf starts, including undocumented traffic in the stretch most recently on Nov. 24.
Has improved since she last had an opportunity to race on turf.
Figures to get an honest pace to close into given that a few of her key rivals possess early speed.
10-1 on ML​

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