Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:31 p.m. (ET)
Clever Forever (#2) goes off at a short price each time he’s led to the post, even though he has a tendency to settle for minor awards rather than get the job done. It took him 6 attempts to break his maiden, finally doing so in workmanlike fashion as the 3-5 favorite on Jan. 5. Since then, he has tried this N1X condition twice, producing solid if underwhelming performances. While he was wide against a rail bias on Feb. 4, he didn’t really have a tougher trip than the runner-up in that spot. Then last time he had no excuse not to get the job done after a good trip. He stretches back out to 9 furlongs, which seems fine for him. Yet he figures to take money again despite the fact that others have produced better recent form.
Main rival Aula (#6) should appreciate getting back out to this distance. If taken at face value, it’s easy to view his 9-furlong results as indicators that he’s just a better horse around two turns. However, he did take advantage of some favorable circumstances in those victories. That was particularly true on Feb. 4 when he got to the lead and the rail over a track that featured an inside bias. He took money at this level last time and was pretty disappointing, lacking the speed to keep up early. He should able to attain better early position here, but that won’t necessarily put him in the winner’s circle.
My top pick is Horse Be With You (#4). The distance should be to this gelding’s benefit, as he’s generally been most effective in two-turn races. He produced some of his best efforts going 1 1/4 miles at Finger Lakes last year, so stamina is no concern. Since coming to Aqueduct this winter he’s run better than his bare results suggest on a couple of occasions. He was compromised by racing inside on Jan. 11, when the rail path was a disadvantage. He then encountered a rail bias on Feb. 4, but despite setting the pace was kept off the inside throughout, failing to take advantage of the bias. He set honest fractions over a slow track, and was run down by a horse who rode the rail path. Last time he cut back to a one-turn mile and put in another solid effort, but he should be capable of better on the stretch-out.
One other horse to consider, potentially underneath, at a bigger price is Provision (#3). He’s been in decent form against weaker competition this winter and actually ran better than it might appear when stepped up to this level off the claim last time. The rail wasn’t the best place to be on Feb. 29 and he was inside throughout while chasing Clever Forever home. He’s gone two turns in the past, so distance shouldn’t be a major hurdle. He could pick up some pieces at a generous price.
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