Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Dawn’s Early Light can step forward in first try against NY-breds

Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 1:45 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 
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The $2 million two-year-old purchase Chestertown (#7) was bet down to 6-5 odds in his debut and just ran like a horse who needed that race. He was a little sluggish in the early going and steadily advanced on the turn, but ultimately hit his best stride too late. If he takes any kind of step forward he’s going to beat this group. However, you’re probably going to be forced to take another very short price and there are other intriguing options in this field.

True Grace (#3) would be a serious rival for Chestertown if he merely repeats his last race. He’s hard to love off his form prior to that, but sometimes these youngsters can improve quite a bit from start to start at the end of their 2-year-old seasons. It’s a good sign that Rosario stays with this runner instead of Hellbender, and Christophe Clement does well with maidens getting Lasix for the first time. I’m using him, but my top pick figures to be an even larger price.

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DAWN’S EARLY LIGHT (#4) ships in from Kentucky for Danny Gargan, who claimed Tax out of a maiden event at Keeneland last fall before that runner went onto achieve Grade 2 success this year. This colt has a long way to come to match that feat but this could very well turn out to be another astute claim for this barn. He is a $285,000 yearling who was oddly dropped in for a tag without ever taking advantage of his New York-bred status. He now makes his first start against statebreds off a pair of decent TimeformUS Speed Figures and he’s got the pedigree to be a nice horse as a half-brother to multiple Grade 1-placed My Happy Face ($583,000). Furthermore, Gargan does exceptional work in this situation. Over the past year alone, he is a remarkable 9 for 17 (53%, $4.02 ROI) first off the claim, and he’s won with six of his last eight of those.

THE PLAY

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,7
Trifecta: 4 with 3,7 with 3,6,7,9

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Sunday, December 1

Race 1: Its a Ford (#2)

  • Had previously earned some competitive speed figures on other circuits before coming into Rob Atras’s barn.
  • Ran better than it appears last time, when she closed well over a racetrack that was favoring front-runners.
  • Is likely to be an overlay due to the presence of turf horse Shannon’s Girl.

7-2 on ML

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Race 4: Dawn’s Early Light (#4)

  • Is bred to be a nice horse as a half-brother to Grade 1-placed My Happy Face.
  • Comes in with some competitive TimeformUS Speed Figures from Kentucky.
  • DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past year, Danny Gargan is 9 for 17 (53%, $4.02 ROI) first off the claim.

6-1 on ML

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Race 8: Stan the Man (#5)

  • Appears to be working very well for his return to the races.
  • Is capable of earning competitive speed figures going this distance despite achieving most of his success going longer.
  • Has done some of his best work over wet tracks, and there’s plenty of rain in the forecast for Sunday.

5-1 on ML

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Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Take Ten gets a more favorable setup second off the layoff

Aqueduct | Race 3 | Post Time 12:48 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 
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There are many contenders to consider in this spot, and they’re exiting two key races. Ava Malone (#9) may go favored after getting the better of In Front and Coilean Bawn at Belmont last time. Some things went right for her as the race was falling apart late, but she nevertheless ran an improved race and will be tough here if she continues her forward progression.

However, the horse that is perhaps most intriguing out of that spot is Coilean Bawn (#8), since she did have some trouble in the stretch. She had worked out a good trip up until the quarter pole, at which point she got locked inside behind a tiring In Front (#2) and never was fully clear to unleash a rally in the lane. She’s generally been better going longer distances than this, but her last race is a bit better than it seems.

Ocean Fire (#4) exits a different race, the second on Nov. 9, in which she chased eventual winner Balon Rose around the track and hung on for second. She’s now run well in two consecutive turf starts and she has the tactical speed to work out a good trip here. However, she also was with the track last time and there’s another filly coming out of that race who may have run just as well.

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TAKE TEN (#1A) did not get the right trip last time, as she broke towards the back of the pack and was never really on the rail while rating well off the pace. The early fractions were quite slow, and the race was dominated on the front end. Therefore, she did quite well to rally for fourth despite having to swing extremely wide for the stretch drive. Horses were routinely having trouble making up ground in the center of the track that week, so she deserves additional credit for her performance. She had shown some quality as a younger horse, and she has a right to improve now second off the layoff.

THE PLAY

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,8,9
Trifecta: 1 with 8,9 with 2,4,7,8,9

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, November 30

Race 1: Henni Penny (#3)

  • Was green first time out, pausing at the three-sixteenths pole when put in tight quarters before finishing well.
  • Should be more professional in her second career start for a barn whose runners tend to improve with experience.
  • Is bred for these conditions since her female family is mainly composed of turf sprinters.

3-1 on ML

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Race 3: Take Ten (#1A)

  • Showed ability as a younger horse, and has a right to do better now.
  • Her return was better than it appears, since she closed into a slow pace and was on the worst part of the turf course.
  • Should relish the give in the ground right now, since she ran so well in her debut over a yielding course.

8-1 on ML

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Race 7: Gidu (#1)

  • The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner.
  • Has been unfortunate to find himself in a number of fast-paced races this year.
  • Was once a very good turf sprinter before his connections decided to focus on longer races.

3-1 on ML

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Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Am Impazible can build upon encouraging debut

Aqueduct | Race 1 | Post Time 11:50 a.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 
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Doll (#5), the likely favorite, disappointed at 3-5 odds last time, getting cooked in an early duel before fading late. She has to stretch out an extra half-furlong here and that could work against her, as she was unable to see out this distance in her second start in May. This fast-breaking filly should be in front once again here and she may show a bit more staying power now in her second start off the layoff. Though, how short of a price do you really want to take on a filly who has already burned quite a bit of money?

One of her main rivals, Anydayisherday (#2), has outrun her odds in both appearances since returning from the layoff this fall. She got the better of Doll last time, outdueling her in deep stretch before they both got overhauled by the late-running winner. She needs to run a little faster if she’s to break through at the level this time, but she figures to be a better price than her main rival once again.

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I want a different horse out of that race. My top pick is second-time starter AM IMPAZIBLE (#6). Little went right for this filly in her debut four weeks ago. She broke with the field, but was steadily shuffled back down the backstretch as she appeared to react badly to the kickback. She eventually found herself back in last rounding the turn while racing very greenly. All things considered, she actually did well to come back to get fourth after her eventful trip, running on best of all in the stretch. Kelly Breen typically sends live runners to NYRA and this one figures to be more professional with blinkers added second time out.

THE PLAY

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 6 with 2,5 with 2,3,4,5,7

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Thursday, November 28

Race 2: Danny California (#8)

  • Was compromised by a slow pace and kickback that was hindering closers last time.
  • Ran deceptively well, albeit against cheaper company, in his two prior turf starts for Jorge Abreu.
  • Has improved significantly in recent months and can better his prior turf form.

8-1 on ML

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Race 3: Fabulous Fun (#1)

  • Was touted prior to his Saratoga debut and has trained well for his return this year.
  • Ran better than it appears last time, making a brief middle move after breaking slowly.
  • Should be fitter for his second start off the layoff.

9-2 on ML

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Race 8: Tuned (#5)

  • The 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned in her U.S. debut at Keeneland makes her a good fit for this race.
  • Is bred to be a high quality runner as a daughter of multiple Grade 1 winner Zagora.
  • Showed potential going back to her debut in France, beating eventual Group 1-placed filly Platane.

4-1 on ML

 

 

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Wednesday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Jimmy Jazz’s last effort is better than it appears

Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 2:47 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 
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The likely favorite, Crazy Life (#3), comes in with decent form, but he’s had his chances and hasn’t exactly impressed in either of his turf starts this year. He was only beaten a length by Waynes Footsteps last time, and that runner did come back to win at the same level next time. This gelding hasn’t been seen for three months since that most recent start, but this barn does great off layoffs. If he merely maintains his form he’ll be a major player once again.

In searching for an alternative, many are likely to gravitate towards the new face, Kingfish (#4). This second time starter ran like a horse who badly needed his debut first time out, only hitting his best stride late after a sluggish start, and that’s not atypical for this barn. However, Linda Rice is just 2 for 19 (11%, $0.78 ROI) with maiden second time starters in turf routes over 5 years. This colt does have pedigree to handle the surface, but has quite a bit of ground to make up.

Jimmy-Jazz

I prefer one of the rivals with proven turf form, and I think JIMMY JAZZ (#6) makes a lot of sense in this spot. His connections are probably making the right move by giving him one more chance at this maiden special weight level, since he’s actually good fit for this race. His overall turf form is some of the best in this field, and he only did so poorly last time because his rider didn’t make use of his tactical speed. He actually did better than the result would indicate in that appearance after getting shuffled back on the far turn. The connections have toyed with the idea of running for a tag since then, but Jimmy Jazz still has a chance to break through this level if he merely maintains his form.

THE PLAY

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4,7
Trifecta: 6 with 3,4,7 with 2,3,4,7

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