Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday April 22nd

Race 5

Roll Tide Roll (#4)

Raced four wide on the turn last time before re-rallying to nearly get up for second.

Should get a more aggressive ride from Mike Luzzi in a race lacking much pace.

Chris Englehart gets a 94 TimeformUS Trainer Rating when running horses back in 8 to 14 days.

5-1 on ML

Race 8

Frosty Gal (#2)

Came through along a dead rail to break her maiden as a 2-year-old.

She is working strongly for her return to the races.

DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Barclay Tagg is 4 for 14 (29%) with last-out maiden winners in scheduled dirt races, for a $5.87 ROI.

12-1 on ML

Race 9

Radial Flyer (#9)

Got a ridiculous ride in his turf debut in Florida.

Was carried out on the first turn and raced three to four wide thereafter in his last turf race in New York.

Could be the controlling speed in a race lacking other confirmed front-runners.

30-1 on ML

 

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Aqueduct Friday Highlight Horse: Out of Trouble a threat to wire the field in her return to turf

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:44 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 

Addictive (#5) is going to be a very short price off her visually impressive score against open company at Tampa Bay Downs in her debut. However, she did not beat a strong field that day, and she’s going to have to show better early speed to be competitive in this spot after breaking very slowly in her first start. I feel that she’s going to be an underlay, so I want to consider some others.

There are a couple of interesting fillies shipping up from Gulfstream Park. Bonita Springs (#3) is taking the most significant class drop after racing against open company N1X allowance foes in two straight starts down south. While she couldn’t threaten for a major award in either of those races, she was beaten by some talented fillies, a few of  whom have moved on to stakes company. I also want to use Tiz a Kitten (#6), who appears to finally be putting it all together for the ever-dangerous Mike Maker. This Kitten’s Joy filly showed potential in her initial start in New York last year, but then took a while to find herself in subsequent races. She’s stepping up in class, but her last effort was quite good.

Both of the aforementioned fillies are intriguing, but if we’re going to upset the favorite, I think the best option is OUT OF TROUBLE (#4).

This Kiaran McLaughlin trainee is projected to control the pace up front in a race that is lacking other confirmed front-runners. Her turf races are actually better than they seem. She was cooked in a fast pace against much tougher company in the Chelsey Flower. Then she encountered traffic trouble in November at Aqueduct when trying to make a run up the rail in the stretch. Her recent dirt races – especially her troubled effort two back –  suggest that she may have improved since then, and the price figures to be inviting today.

THE PLAY 

Win/Place: 4

Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6

Trifecta: 4 with 3,5,6 with 1,3,5,6,9,10

 

 

 

 

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Friday April 21st

Race 4:

No Entiendo (#4)

The likely favorite, Condo King, looks especially vulnerable coming off a layoff for Rudy Rodriguez, who does not do well in these situations.

No Entiendo was unwisely rated last time and went extremely wide around the far turn.

Gets a positive rider switch to Hector Diaz.

8-1 on ML

 

Race 6:

Market Sentiment (#2)

Has run better than it appears in each of his last two starts.

Is coming off a deceptively strong effort against a tougher field than the one he meets today.

Should get a more aggressive ride from Manny Franco.

7-2 on ML

Race 7:

Out of Trouble (#4)

Is projected to be clearly leading the pack early in a race that lacks other confirmed front-runners.

Ran better than it appears in her last turf start over this course, when she found traffic trouble in the stretch.

Her subsequent dirt efforts suggest she’s in good form.

12-1 on ML

 

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Aqueduct Thursday Highlight Horse: In Race 7, Zealous Scholar can wire the field at a price

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:44 p.m. (ET) | Go to the FREE TimeformUS PPs 

Tiznow’s Smile (#4) is a deserving favorite, but she does have some questions to answer as she returns from a layoff. Her best effort probably would beat this field, but Charlton Baker has said that this is just a spot to get her started before stretching her out again. I’m against the other runner likely to take money, Overnegotiate. She has been disappointing in her recent races, and others have more room for improvement.

Instead, I’m most interested in the likely early leader, ZEALOUS SCHOLAR (#5).

There isn’t that much speed in this race, and the Pace Projector is predicting that this filly will be clearly in front early in a situation favoring the leader. Zealous Scholar has been involved in fast paces in each of her three starts. That was especially true last time, when she put away her early pace rival before getting swallowed up by the closers late. Not only was she against the race flow that day, but she was racing on a dead rail. This filly is in better form than it appears, and she has a clear TimeformUS Speed Figure edge on this field. If she can get the seven furlongs, she can win this race at a decent price.

THE PLAY 

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box:
5 with 2,4,6,7
Trifecta:
4,5 with 4,5 with 2,6,7,8

 

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Thursday April 20th

Race 5:

Nut Nut (#8)

Has faced tougher fields than the one he meets here.

Was racing on a dead rail last time.

Should appreciate the cutback to a one-turn mile.

6-1 on ML

 

Race 6:

St. Louie (#1)

According to the Pace Projector, his tactical speed gives him an advantage in a race lacking much early pace.

Was completely stymied in traffic last time and might have won had he ever gotten clear.

DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Mike Maker is 10-for-35 (29%) for a $4.36 ROI with non-maidens on turf at Aqueduct.

2-1 on ML

 

Race 7:

Zealous Scholar (#5)

The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be clearly in front early in a situation favoring the leader.

Holds a significant speed figure edge over this field.

Her last effort is better than it appears, considering the fast pace and that she was racing on a dead rail.

8-1 on ML

 

 

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Aqueduct Wednesday Highlight Horse: Well-bred Battlement finds right spot for her U.S. debut

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:44 p.m. (ET) | Go to the FREE TimeformUS PPs 

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There is quite a bit going on in this interesting featured race. Chad Brown sends out the likely favorite, but his runner has some questions to answer. Volatility Index (#1) was visually impressive when winning her maiden by nearly six lengths at Gulfstream, but she did so against a fairly weak field for the level and gets a major class test here.

Other Florida shippers to consider include Glory to Kitten (#5) and Realistic (#8), but they, too, are meeting tougher company in this spot. I would even throw in longshot Not Taken (#3), who ran deceptively well in a few local turf starts toward the end of her 2016 campaign.

These runners have their merits, but I’m ultimately trying to beat them with Bill Mott’s recent import BATTLEMENT (#7).

This Juddmonte homebred has a pedigree that suggests we have not yet seen the best of her. She is very nearly a full sister to Suffused, who has become a multiple graded stakes winner for these same connections since making the trip to the United States last year. (The two share a dam, and their sires are full brothers.) While Battlement’s British form does not look terribly inspiring, our Timeform foreign correspondents had nothing but positive things to say about her races last year, suggesting that her overall form is stronger than it appears at first glance. (Read more in the free TimeformUS PPs for this race.) This could be the start of a productive 4-year-old campaign for this filly.

THE PLAY 

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5,8
Trifecta: 7 with 1,3,5,8 with 1,3,5,8

 

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Wednesday April 19th

Race 6

Five Star Rampage (#4)

Has run better than it appears in a few of her recent starts.

Gets a positive rider switch to John Velazquez.

DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past 5 years, Jimmy Jerkens is 9 for 38 (24%) for a $2.24 ROI with dirt runners stretching out for the first time.

7-2 on ML

Race 7

Battlement (#7)

She is a three-quarter sister to multiple graded stakes winner Suffused.

Timeform foreign correspondents indicate that her British form is better than it appears.

Bill Mott gets a 100 Trainer Rating when teaming up with Kendrick Carmouche.

6-1 on ML

 

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