Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Sunday, February 16

RACE 5: GONGHEIFATCHOY (#2)

Implied Volatility may go favored here off the strength of his second-place finish at this level last time. However, he really had no excuse to lose that race after working out a perfect stalking trip. He had dead aim at leader Hudson Overpass in upper stretch and just didn’t want to go by a horse who himself has had issues winning races in the past. Perhaps a similar performance will be good enough this time, but I strongly prefer his main rival Gongheifatchoy. This horse has been in solid from since returning from a layoff last fall. He had trouble at the break when overmatched against tougher rivals in early November, but he improved significantly once dropped down to this $25,000 claiming level. Some will say that he improved on a muddy track two back, but his 85 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance wasn’t that much higher than the 83 he earned when finishing third last time. Gary Richards may have sent him a little too aggressively in the early stages of that Jan. 11 affair, as he faded through the stretch. Now he gets a subtle but considerable rider upgrade to promising apprentice Luis Cardenas, who seems to have a knack for placing horses well from a pace standpoint. He’s drawn outside of his main rival Implied Volatility so he can play the break and see how to react to that runner’s tactics. I believe Gongheifatchoy is the superior horse and I think he’s finally found the right field to allow him to break out of the maiden ranks.

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RACE 7: HIGH AMPLITUDE (#9)

This is a perplexing N1X allowance affair in which you have contenders coming in from a variety of directions and class levels. You can make a case for many different runners, so perhaps it seems counterintuitive that I’m defaulting to the likely favorite High Amplitude. I just think this Chad Brown trainee is probably better than this group and may sail through this allowance condition following a visually impressive score against maidens last time. While his two best results have come over sloppy, sealed tracks I don’t think there’s significant evidence that he’s better on such going. His lone fast dirt race was actually better than it appears, as he was put in a pocket early, got shuffled back, and had to rally again into a slow pace. His return from the layoff last time was dazzling and he earned an impressive 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the performance. That number has since been validated as third-place finisher Fast Master and fourth-place finisher One Eyed Jack both returned to win their subsequent starts with solid figures. I’m not trying to beat this favorite, particularly because I’m not enamored with the logical alternatives. I Love Jaxson seems like the biggest threat, but he’s now been off for nearly two months, which isn’t a great sign considering that Linda Rice prefers to strike while the iron is hot during the winter months. Notably he’s been a vet scratch on two occasions since his last victory. I’m even less confident in the chances of House Limit, who had everything go his way last time against a far weaker field. I believe he’d have to improve to defeat this crew. I’d prefer to entertain some larger-priced options underneath. The longshot who I find most intriguing is Hip Hip Jorge. I know he wasn’t beating much in that maiden win last time, but it was a fast race. It seems like he’s just turned the corner for Mark Casse, who is having a stellar meet at Aqueduct. It’s fair to be concerned about the stretch-out but he’s bred to relish added distance as a son of graded stakes winning router Andujar.

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RACE 8: BOURBON BAY (#6)

Scilly Cay may go off as the slight favorite after impressively winning the Rego Park by open lengths, putting away his main rival Dream Bigger while holding off the closers. He was primed for a top effort that day, but he arguably ran just as well two back when running through kickback to finish a strong second in the Notebook. He’s clearly coming into this race in great form for Linda Rice, but he will be stretching out for the first time. I think you have to be a little concerned about the added ground since he hails from more of a sprinting family, as a half-brother to the talented sprinters Midnight Transfer and Long Haul Bay. His talent may allow him to get the mile, but I think he’s going to have to be at his best to defeat the rival just to his inside. Bourbon Bay was no match for Kentucky Derby prospect Independence Hall in the Jerome last time, but I thought he stayed on well for second after taking a shot at the winner at the quarter pole. Unlike his two main rivals, he’s proven that he can get the mile and he’s bred to go even further than that. There appears to be enough speed in this race to set up his late run and it seems like he’s finally getting over the gate issues that once plagued him. He’s my top pick, but I also wouldn’t totally discount Bank On Shea. He was a little lucky to win that lucrative stakes last time, but it is interesting that Jose Lezcano, the regular rider of all three of these favorites, has chosen to stick with this Servis trainee.

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Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Aristocratic’s speed makes him a gate-to-wire threat

Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 3:25 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 
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Potential favorite Hawaiian Noises (#4) was no match for Grade 1 winner Complexity two back but rebounded to easily defeat an overmatched field as the odds-on choice last time. While he earned a respectable speed figure, he got a perfect trip. I won’t put anything past this barn, but this runner is facing a much sterner test here and seems a little dicey at what figures to be a short price.

I’m similarly skeptical of his former stablemate Life In Shambles (#3), who was claimed away from Servis by Mertkan Kantarmaci last time. He’d be tough if able to repeat that recent performance, but a lot of things went his way that day and he’s meeting a tougher field this time.

I prefer others, and one of the more trustworthy contenders appears to be Win With Pride (#6). This gelding is probably no longer capable of delivering the kind of performances we saw from him last winter, but his two recent efforts since returning from a layoff are actually better than they seem.

Pace-Projector

I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is the likely speed ARISTOCRATIC (#7). The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runner, and that is going to make this horse awfully dangerous. He found himself dueling for the lead through quick fractions last time and was swallowed up late by a couple of deep closers. Nevertheless he was extremely game that day and will be tough here with a similar effort. This is the kind of horse who can relax on the lead when allowed to do so, and he usually runs his best speed figures under those circumstances, as he did when winning by over 6 lengths on Nov. 3. If Eric Cancel is aggressive and secures the front, I believe he’ll be difficult to reel in.

THE PLAY

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,6,8
Trifecta: 7 with 4,6 with 2,3,4,6,8

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, February 15

RACE 2: SPLIT VERDICT (#8)

Only one half of this Mertkan Kantarmaci entry will participate in this race since Silvestre Gonzalez is named on both runners. Neither one is particularly appealing, as Inclunation has had his chances at this level and Dr. Devera’s Way appears to be in declining form. That said, if either of them merely repeats their last effort he’s likely to be around at the finish due to a lack of serious competition. I suppose a horse like Bronxville is a threat to wire the field, but he seems like a dicey proposition going this one-mile distance. He’s run some competitive speed figures going route distances in the past, but he’s been much more of a one-dimensional speedball recently. Kendrick Carmouche has his work cut out for him trying to ration out his stamina over this trip. I’d rather take a shot with Split Verdict second off the layoff. Some may dismiss this horse as a ‘has been’ following his disappointing effort first off the layoff for this barn last time. He’s clearly not capable of producing the speed figures that he posted early in his career, but I think it’s premature to give up on him at this claiming level. While he wasn’t competitive last time, 6 furlongs is just too short for him, and he never had a chance to close over a surface that was favoring horses on the lead throughout the day. He didn’t make much of an impression late, but he was finding his best stride across the wire. This time he should be able to sit closer to the pace from this outside post position and the added distance will allow him to make better use of his stamina. He’s not fully trustworthy, but he seems like the best choice out of many flawed options.

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RACE 4: SHARP STARR (#4)

If not for that baffling effort on New Year’s Day, Bankers Daughter would be the undeniable favorite in this spot. That 83 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned two back would likely be good enough to beat this field, and she even ran well in her career debut when overcoming a wide trip to be a solid fourth. So what happened last time? The only major difference from her other races was that she was forced to race inside of rivals for the first time, but she’s drawn inside again today. She was also glued to the rail in the stretch while most of the best running was done in outside paths, though I didn’t get the sense there was a severe bias. If you think those excuses are legitimate, she’s the one you want here, but I’m a little skeptical. There are a couple of intriguing second time starters to consider. Linda Rice’s Stonezapper will attract support due to her superb record with this move, and I have no problem with that horse. Yet my top pick is Sharp Starr. This filly ran like one who just needed more ground in her debut and she gets slightly more distance here. She broke with the field but was slow into stride and dropped back while wide on the turn. She only found her best stride in the stretch and was quickly making up ground, doing so while still racing on her wrong lead. Sharp Starr only earned a 60 TimeformUS Speed Figure, but runner-up Nicky Scissors did return to win improving her figure by 12 points and the winner improved by 20 points next time out. All three of her siblings to race have been best routing, topped by half-a-million dollar earner Papa Shot. Furthermore, Horacio DePaz is an excellent 8 for 22 (36%, $4.41 ROI) with maiden second time starters on dirt over the past five years.

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RACE 6: ARISTOCRATIC (#7)

Potential favorite Hawaiian Noises was no match for Grade 1 winner Complexity two back but rebounded to easily defeat an overmatched field as the odds-on choice last time. While he earned a respectable speed figure for that effort, he got a perfect trip in doing so. I won’t put anything past this barn, but this runner is facing a much sterner test here and seems a little dicey at what figures to be a short price. I’m similarly skeptical of his former stablemate Life In Shambles, who was claimed away from Servis by Mertkan Kantarmaci last time. He’d be tough if able to repeat that recent performance, but a lot of things went his way that day and he’s meeting a tougher field this time. I prefer others, and one of the more trustworthy contenders appears to be Win With Pride. This gelding is probably no longer capable of delivering the kind of performances we saw from him last winter, but his two recent efforts since returning from a layoff are actually better than they seem. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is the likely speed Aristocratic. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runner, and that is going to make this horse awfully dangerous. He found himself dueling for the lead through quick fractions last time and was swallowed up late by a couple of deep closers. Nevertheless he was extremely game that day and will be tough here with a similar effort. This is the kind of horse who can relax on the lead when allowed to do so, and he usually runs his best speed figures under those circumstances, as he did when winning by over 6 lengths on Nov. 3. If Eric Cancel is aggressive and secures the front, I believe he’ll be difficult to reel in.

 

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Friday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Keep Your Distance is back at the right class level

Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 3:25 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 
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Stay Fond (#5) figures to attract some support in this spot given that she’s coming off two consecutive victories in which she earned speed figures that are faster than those of her rivals. However, both of those wins were earned going a mile for prior trainer Linda Rice. Jeffrey Englehart wins at a decent percentage off the claim, but his ROI is quite low and the choice to turn this mare back to a sprint distance seems questionable. She’s never been one to show much speed and often requires plenty of encouragement to even stay engaged in races going route distances. If she’s among the favorites, I would look elsewhere.

Keep-Your-Distance

I strongly prefer main rival KEEP YOUR DISTANCE (#6). Some may be deterred by this mare’s poor effort against $25,000 claimers first off the claim for Gary Gullo last time. Yet she actually ran fairly well within the context of that event, as she rushed up to challenge the speedy Malibu Mischief for the lead down the backstretch. She then put that rival away and only succumbed to late runs by closers in a race that fell apart in deep stretch. The winner got a surprisingly high speed figure, but she came back to validate by beating N1X allowance company in her subsequent start. Prior to that, Keep Your Distance had easily handled cheaper claimers and now she’s back in the right kind of spot here. Furthermore, Gullo is 9 for 30 (30%, $2.07 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50% or more over the past 5 years. Her rider was very aggressive last time, but this mare showed in prior starts that she’s just as comfortable rallying from off the pace.

I also wouldn’t completely discount the improved Zecha (#2), but I think she looked more formidable going a mile on last Friday’s canceled card. This turnback in distance may not suit her, though I still prefer her to Stay Fond at a better price.

THE PLAY

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5,9
Trifecta: 6 with 2,5 with 1,2,5,8,9

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TimeformUS Derby Prep Analysis: Excession offers value as alternative to Anneau d’Or in second division of Risen Star

Fair Grounds | Race 13 | Post Time 6:12 p.m. (CT) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 
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The second division of the Grade 2 Risen Star on Saturday at Fair Grounds attracted a field of 12 runners with a standout in the lineup. Anneau d’Or looms as a prohibitive favorite, coming in with a résumé that is considerably stronger than any horse entered to participate in either division of this race. Looking beyond him, despite the large field of challengers, there is not as much depth to this group as in the first division. This division lacks a clear alternative to the favorite, opening the door to some longshot possibilities if you think this favorite is vulnerable.

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I’m hardly against Anneau d’Or (#8). He has proven he’s a quality runner, backing up his surprising runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with another strong effort in the Los Alamitos Futurity behind the undefeated top Derby prospect Thousand Words. He’s handled a variety of surfaces in his first three starts and possesses a versatile running style that should allow him to adapt to any kind of pace scenario. While this will be his first start outside of California, he’s shipped to new venues for each of his last two starts without issue. I do find it somewhat curious that his connections are adding blinkers for this race given how well he’s run in each of his last two starts, though it is a decent move for this barn. If he shows up, he’s probably going to win. However, he does need to work out a trip in this large field, and I’m reticent to accept a very short price on him when there are so many rivals with upside potential.

I’m not particularly fond of a few of the runners likely to attract public support in this spot. Liam’s Lucky Charm (#5) wasn’t able to handle two turns as a 2-year-old, having done all of his best work over sprint distances. While he did put forth an improved effort in his sophomore debut at Tampa last time, he benefited from a moderate pace and speed-favoring surface. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which seems likely to develop given the fact that primary speed Ny Traffic (#12) has drawn the outside post position. If these two runners hook up in the early going, it could set the race up for a closer.

Pace-Projector-Div2

Mailman Money (#11) is another who should attract his fair share of support as he enters his stakes debut with an undefeated record. He beat a solid field in his sprint debut at Churchill Downs, and he did well to handle his first two-turn test with style last time. However, that optional claiming race was an off-the-turf event which did not feature the strongest competition, so this son of Goldencents still has to prove himself in a true route test.

Lynn’s Map (#9) is difficult to gauge. After showing so much promise in his two victories at the end of 2019, he put forth a very disappointing effort in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn, unable to capitalize on a perfect trip stalking a slow pace. The allowance race he won two back was flattered when Mr. Monomoy returned to run so well in the Lecomte last month, so there is hope that Lynn’s Map can rebound here. However, it’s unclear if the added distance will work in his favor and he still needs to get a bit faster from a speed-figure standpoint.

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If I’m taking a shot against this favorite, I want to get a little more creative. While most of the horses who were successful in the Lecomte wound up in the first division of this race, one of the Lecomte participants in this division interests me. EXCESSION (#6) was a well-beaten seventh in that local prep, but I don’t think his performance was quite as dismal as the result would indicate. This colt got into a good ground-saving position heading into the first turn, but he was a little too keen and reluctant to settle. He eventually relaxed into a mid-pack journey down the backstretch, but his rider seemed to get a little impatient passing the half-mile pole. He motivated Excession to make an early move after the leaders, launching his rally even before the eventual winner Enforceable started to pick up his stride. Excession had to lose ground in making that move and was basically spent by the time they got to upper stretch. He may not have even cracked the trifecta with a more patient ride, but there are some aspects to this Risen Star that could work in his favor. He figures to get a well measured ride as he’s reunited with regular jockey Ricardo Santana, and they should get a bit more pace to close into this time. Furthermore, he should relish the slight stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles given that he’s by Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags out of a dirt-routing dam who wanted to run all day. I acknowledge he’s hardly the most likely upsetter, but he’s going to be a generous price in this spot and I think he’s a strong candidate to outrun his odds.

The other horse I’d want to throw onto my tickets is recent maiden winner Major Fed (#7). This horse benefited from the stretch-out to two turns last time, unleashing an eye-catching turn of foot to put away a field of maidens. This is a significant step up in class, but he does own the highest TimeformUS Late Pace Rating (102) in the field. Typically those horses are dangerous in situations where the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. I’ll primarily use him in exotics.

THE PLAY

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 7,8,9,11
Trifecta: 6,8 with 6,8 with 1,3,7,9,10,11
Trifecta: 6,8 with 1,7,9,11 with 6,8

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TimeformUS Derby Prep Analysis: Blackberry Wine is faster than stakes-tested rivals in first division of Risen Star

Fair Grounds | Race 12 | Post Time 5:38 p.m. (CT) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 
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The first division of the Grade 2 Risen Star on Saturday at Fair Grounds has drawn a field of 11 runners, including most of the horses advancing out of the local prep, the Lecomte. The likely favorite is that race’s winner Enforceable, but he’s again meeting four rivals who finished directly behind him that day, along with a slew of viable challengers from other races and venues. From a wagering standpoint, this appears to be the more wide-open of the two divisions given the lack of separation among the top contenders.

Pace-Projector-Div1

The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with Shashashakemeup (#6) on the lead over Ready to Roll (#3) and Blackberry Wine (#7). While I understand why the Pace Projector is characterizing the pace scenario as such, I tend to think we will see a more moderate early tempo in this division. While Shashashakemeup is likely to head out towards the front, those chasing him are not particularly fast and all of the horses in behind those speeds seem unlikely to press the pace. If a fast pace does not develop, that could work against a horse like Enforceable.

Of the many runners exiting the Lecomte, it would be fair to say that Enforceable (#8) ran the best race. His margin of victory was decisive and had to lose some ground while rallying wide on the far turn. Yet it would also be fair to point out that he avoided many of the issues encountered by his main rivals. In launching his run leaving the three-eighths pole, Julien Leparoux enabled Enforceable to avoid the traffic jam at the quarter pole and get the jump on the other closers. He may work out a similar trip on Saturday, and the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles should only help his cause. Yet I didn’t walk away from the Lecomte with the sense that he had asserted superiority over that group – rather everything had come together for him to be successful that day and he seized the opportunity. If he is indeed the favorite this time, I’d rather look elsewhere for better value.

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The Lecomte runner-up Silver State (#2) seems like a viable option. While he saved more ground on the turns than Enforceable, Ricardo Santana may have waited a bit too long to launch his rally, as he lost a bit of momentum behind tiring runners at the quarter pole and had to bull his way outside for running room in the lane. All things considered, he finished well enough without really threatening the winner. He also shouldn’t be hindered by a little added ground, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make better use of his tactical speed on this occasion. I view him as a logical win candidate.

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Mr. Monomoy (#9) was hindered by pace dynamics in the Lecomte, as he was in close attendance to the honest pace and had to wait for room in upper stretch as the leaders began to back up in his face. For such an inexperienced runner, he showed plenty of grit and determination to rally through a small opening inside and regain momentum to finish in a photo for second. I would use him prominently, and I also wouldn’t totally discount Scabbard (#11), who may have had the most trouble of all in the Lecomte. He was following Mr. Monomoy into the lane but unlike that rival got caught up in the traffic jam of tiring runners and had to slam on the brakes and alter course multiple times through the lane. Normally I’d consider a horse like him to be one to bet back based on the trip alone, but his pedigree is geared more toward one-turn races and I’m a little concerned about him handling the added distance of this nine-furlong test.

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I want to explore some other options beyond the runners exiting the Lecomte. The most appealing of those appears to be BLACKBERRY WINE (#7). This son of Oxbow was initially cut out to be a turf horse, which is no surprise given that he’s a half-brother to the longwinded Neoclassic, a plodding turf horse who won going distances as far as 1 1/4 miles. Yet it seems that Blackberry Wine has proven that he’s far more comfortable racing on dirt. He first served notice of that in an impressive maiden win on the Kentucky Jockey Club undercard at Churchill Downs last fall, running a faster final time than the main event over the same distance. He then repeated that feat on Lecomte day, stopping the clock one tick faster than the feature race in winning an optional claimer earlier on the card. He faced a stern test from today’s rival Digital in that victory, and was game to re-rally up the rail after getting passed in the lane. This colt has a steadiness to him and strikes me as one who should relish this 1 1/8-mile trip. He’s drawn well outside of his two main pace foes, so he should be able to settle into a comfortable stalking trip. If he can transfer that last-out 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure into stakes company, he’s the horse to beat.

The other runner that I would want to consider at a price is Florida shipper Moon Over Miami (#5). This Bill Mott trainee impressively won a loaded maiden event on Cigar Mile day last year. He was subsequently bet down to favoritism in his first start against winners at Gulfstream, but disappointed with a dull fifth-place effort. Things didn’t work out for him that day, as he had to break from the outside post position going that tricky 1 1/16-mile distance and was wide throughout. It’s a sign of confidence that they’re pressing on to a Derby prep immediately thereafter, and he wouldn’t have to improve that much on his New York victory to compete here.

THE PLAY

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,5,8,9,11
Trifecta: 7 with 2,5,9 with 1,2,5,8,9,10,11
Trifecta: 7 with 1,8,11 with 2,5,9

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Friday, February 14

RACE 4: BLACK KETTLE (#2)

Figure It Out will probably win this race if she merely maintains her current form. However, the only reason that she’s likely to go to post as an odds-on favorite in this N1X allowance is due to a lack of serious competition. She’s not your typical prohibitive favorite in these types of races and was overmatched in similar spots not that long ago. While she was visually impressive winning two back, she regressed off that effort in her first start off the claim for Michelle Nevin, as the previously vanquished Jennemily turned the tables on her. Figure It Out appeared to have the victory all sewn up coming to the eighth pole, but she got leg weary in the last sixteenth, allowing the winner to pass her. Perhaps a repeat of that performance will be good enough, but there is at least one new face in this bunch that intrigues me as an alternative. Black Kettle did not run particularly fast when she broke her maiden in her career debut at Laurel last time. That 75 TimeformUS Speed Figure will not get it done against a field of this caliber. However, that performance may have been stronger than it appears. The three runners who finished directly behind her that day have all returned to win and the four horses to run back out of that race all improved their TimeformUS Speed Figures in their subsequent starts by anywhere from 8 to 33 points. Black Kettle wasn’t capable of achieving a fast final time that day due to a pedestrian early tempo over a rain-soaked surface that was slow and tiring. She nevertheless finished with good energy and she figures to only do better with added ground. She’s by route influence Take Charge Indy out of a Dunkirk mare who is a half-sister to Indiana Derby winner Star Dabbler.

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RACE 6: KEEP YOUR DISTANCE (#6)

Stay Fond figures to attract some support in this spot given that she’s coming off two consecutive victories in which she earned speed figures that are faster than those of her rivals. However, both of those wins were earned going a mile for prior trainer Linda Rice. Jeffrey Englehart wins at a decent percentage off the claim, but his ROI is quite low and the choice to turn this mare back to a sprint distance seems questionable. She’s never been one to show much speed and often requires plenty of encouragement to even stay engaged in races going route distances. If she’s among the favorites, I would look elsewhere. I strongly prefer main rival Keep Your Distance. Some may be deterred by this mare’s poor effort against $25,000 claimers first off the claim for Gary Gullo last time. Yet she actually ran fairly well within the context of that event, as she rushed up to challenge the speedy Malibu Mischief for the lead down the backstretch. She then put that rival away and only succumbed to late runs by closers in a race that fell apart in deep stretch. The winner got a surprisingly high speed figure, but she came back to validate by beating N1X allowance company in her subsequent start. Prior to that, Keep Your Distance had easily handled cheaper claimers and now she’s back in the right kind of spot here. Furthermore, Gary Gullo is 9 for 30 (30%, $2.07 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50% or more over the past 5 years. Her rider was very aggressive last time, but this mare showed in prior starts that she’s just as comfortable rallying from off the pace.

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RACE 7: AM IMPAZIBLE (#7)

Lucky Move will win this race if she repeats her recent efforts at Aqueduct, both of which came against stakes company. She was unlucky to lose a very close decision two back in the Bay Ridge when she wound up on the wrong side of a head bob. Then last time she closed gamely after winner Bellera in the open company Ladies Handicap. Based on those efforts, she has a pretty significant class edge on this field. The problem is that both of those performances came around two turns at the 1 1/8 miles distance, and she clearly relishes that added ground. The turnback to a one-turn mile may negatively affect her, and I think that opens this race up to some seemingly slower contenders. The Pace Projector is predicting that Cartwheel should be up front in the early going in a situation favoring the leader. Unlike the favorite, Cartwheel wants no part of two turns, so she should appreciate the cutback in distance here. She’s been successful going this one-turn distance in the past and all of her efforts immediately prior to that Bay Ridge debacle make her pretty formidable. I’m using her prominently, but I’m interested in a filly stepping up in class. Am Impazible is seeking her third consecutive victory here and I believe she can continue her streak despite the rise in class. She ran her first two races like she needed more ground and that was confirmed last time when she steadily drew away from a solid N1X allowance field going a mile. Left in her wake that day was today’s rival The Great Johanna, who had been dominating her competition in her surrounding starts. Am Impazible does have to get a little faster to beat this group, but she’s one of the few in this lineup who still has upside and she figures to work out a good stalking trip.

 

 

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