Belmont Horses in Focus for Thursday June 22nd

Race 3:
Magsamelia (#6)

May have needed her first start back off the layoff.
Linda Rice gets a 98 Trainer Rating first off the claim.
Six furlongs is her best distance.
5-2 on ML

Race 6:
Whatstotalkabout (#2)

Should get an honest pace to close into.
Will appreciate getting back to his shorter distance.
DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Jason Servis is 8 for 18 (44 percent, $3.43 ROI) with runners coming off maiden wins in turf sprints (five to seven furlongs).
4-1 on ML

Race 8:
Browse (#8)

Is a half-sister to three turf winners, including Grade 1 winner Imagining.
The Pace Projector is predicting she will be on or near the lead in a situation that favors the front-runners.
Shug McGaughey gets a 95 Trainer Rating with horses switching from dirt to turf.
8-1 on ML

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Belmont Highlight Horse for Wednesday: Bellamy Way can rebound on the drop in class

Belmont | Race 3 | Post Time 2:32 p.m. (ET) | Go to the FREE TimeformUS PPs 

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The Jimmy Jerkens-trained entry of Adulator (#1) and Securitiz (#1A) is likely to go favored in this spot, but they are an unreliable duo. Adulator just has not been the same horse since returning as a 4-year-old, while Securitiz may need a race off the layoff and prefers longer distances. The runner whom they will all have to catch is Wake Up in Malibu (#2), who the Pace Projector is predicting will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. Charlton Baker runners are certainly capable of winning off layoffs, but he finds himself in a tough spot.

I’m going to try to beat these horses with BELLAMY WAY (#3).

This New York-bred was overmatched in the Excelsior most recently, but he had previously run an encouraging race in his return at Aqueduct. The 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for that effort would certainly be good enough to beat a field at this level. Bellamy Way possesses the tactical speed to stay within striking range of Wake Up in Malibu early, so he won’t be compromised by a slow pace. David Cannizzo is having a fantastic meet, and he gets an 88 TimeformUS Trainer Rating when pairing up with Joel Rosario.

THE PLAY

Win: 3

Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4

Trifecta: 3 with 1,2 with 1,2,4,5

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Belmont Horses in Focus for Wednesday June 21st

Race 3

Bellamy Way (#3)

Was overmatched last time in the Excelsior.

Ran a competitive TimeformUS Speed Figure (121) in his return race two back.

Dave Cannizzo is having a great meet and gets an 88 Trainer Rating when teamed up with Joel Rosario.

5-1 on ML

 

Race 6

Acoustic (#4)

Should get an honest pace to close into.

Ran better than it appears last time after getting shuffled back in traffic coming to the top of the stretch.

Has subtly improved in recent starts.

8-1 on ML

 

Race 7

Benny Big Boy (#4)

His last race, which came on dirt, signals that he may have significantly improved since the winter.

He is bred for turf and deserves another chance racing over that surface now that he’s matured.

Possesses the tactical speed to be close to the pace in a situation predicted to favor the leaders.

8-1 on ML

 

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Belmont Highlight Horse for Sunday: Catapult has a chance to wire the field in the Poker

Belmont | Race 8 | Post Time 5:13 p.m. (ET) | Go to the FREE TimeformUS PPs

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Projected (#2) probably is the most talented runner in this race, and he may win at a short price. He confirmed his quality when finishing just ahead of Divisdero two back at Keeneland. Projected then worked out a perfect trip in the Dixie last time, beating his stablemate Catapult. I’m not really against Projected in this spot, who does deserve to be favored, but I do think that his stablemate will narrow the margin today.

It looks like CATAPULT (#6) will finally find himself in a situation where his rider can just let him set the pace in the early going. This horse tends to get very rank in his races, as he did in the Dixie, and often it’s better to just let these horses run off and get comfortable. Catapult does have serious ability, but his unwillingness to settle in his races often detracts from his finishing kick. If Jose Ortiz can get him to relax in this new running style today, I expect him to be tough to hold off. Indeed, the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors horses on or near the lead. Furthermore, the turf course should still be good or yielding, and Catapult has shown he handles grass courses that have taken some rain.

THE PLAY

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 1,3,4,7

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Belmont Horses in Focus for Sunday June 18th

Race ­­5: Appealing Briefs (#5)

Had been facing tougher company at Gulfstream this winter.

Ran better than it seems in his last turf race in New York.

May be a square price due to the number of dirt horses that will take money in this race.

5-1 on ML

Race 7: Battlement (#3)

Excelled in sprint races when she was racing in Europe last year.

She was off slowly in her only turf start in this country.

DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Bill Mott is 13 for 49 (27 percent, $2.80 ROI) with horses going from routes to sprints on the turf.

10-1 on ML

Race 9: Life in Shambles (#1)

His last race signals that he’s back in top form.

Runs his best races at Belmont Park.

Figures to sit a good trip stalking the pace in a situation predicted to favor the leaders.

6-1 on ML

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Belmont Highlight Horse for Saturday: Pop By will appreciate getting back on firm turf

Belmont | Race 8 | Post Time 5:13 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

 

 

There are many ways to go in this race. The most intriguing contender is Squeeze (#4), who returns from a lengthy layoff for Christophe Clement, who has decent numbers with this move. This filly was extremely impressive in her two starts last year, winning with much greater ease than the final margins would suggest. However, she’s facing the toughest field of her career off the break, and you never know how these precocious runners will return as older horses.

 

Clement’s other runner, Gioia Stella (#6), is a major contender and probably the horse to beat. She never had a chance on dirt last time, but her form toward the end of 2016 was strong, and her tactical speed should have her placed close to what figures to be a moderate pace.

 

I’ll certainly use those two, but the runner who intrigues me most from a value perspective is POP BY (#5).

 

 

Graham Motion typically does very well with his European imports, and Pop By has a right to take a major step forward in this country. You can ignore her U.S. debut, in which she didn’t handle dirt in the same race that Gioia Stella exits. She showed in France that she runs her best races over firm turf, and she figures to get that kind of going on Saturday. She has the pedigree to be a nice horse given that her dam is a full-sister to the dam of Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Karakontie. This is a bit of an educated guess in a confusing race, but she figures to be an enticing price.

 

THE PLAY
 

 

Win/Place: 5

 

Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,6,7

 

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Belmont Horses in Focus for Saturday June 17th

Race 1: Gypsy Jo (#3)
None of the runners with experience have run particularly well.
Dam is a half-sister to multiple sprint stakes winner First Passage.
DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Rick Violette is 14 for 44 (32 percent, $3.28 ROI) with NY-bred first time starters in dirt sprints.
8-1 on ML
Race 3: Court Dancer (#6)
The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner.
Her best races are fast enough to beat favored Clipthecouponannie.
Has been in great form for Jason Servis.
3-1 on ML
Race 8: Pop By (#5)
Ignore her only race in the U.S. since it was rained off the turf.
Showed a clear preference for firm turf in her races in France, and she figures to get that here.
Graham Motion typically does very well with his European shippers.
8-1 on ML
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