Get The 2019 TimeformUS Kentucky Derby Weekend Package: All the details are here

Once you’ve bought it, get the Contender PPs and Preliminary Pace Projector here.

Frequently Asked Questions about the 2019 TimeformUS Kentucky Derby Package:

Q: How do I get your Experts’ selections, betting strategies, and analysis for all of the stakes races on Kentucky Derby and the 4 stakes races ending in the Kentucky Oaks?

A: Race Analysis and Betting Strategies from our experts David Aragona, Justin Finch, and Craig Milkowski will be available via the Strategies link at the top of the Churchill Downs PPs for Saturday May 5th for all Package Buyers. We’ll post the Oaks Day Stakes analysis by noon on Thursday May 2nd, and the Derby Day analysis by 2pm on Friday May 3rd. The only way to get all of the TimeformUS Experts’ selections and analysis for all Kentucky Derby stakes and the four stakes ending in the KY Oaks is to buy this package.

Q: What about TimeformUS Past Performances, Pace Projectors, Speed Figures for Derby Day?

A: This package includes UNLIMITED ACCESS to PPs  for ALL races at ALL tracks running on Saturday May 4th, from Churchill Downs to Belmont Park, from Evangeline Downs to Santa Anita, etc. Oaks Day PPs must be purchased separately.

Q: Other than the selections and betting strategies (yes–actual tickets!), what exactly comes in the expert analysis?

From TimeformUS Chief Figure Maker Craig Milkowski:
Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks Pace Projector Preview: Craig will offer expansive commentary on the Pace Projector’s interpretation of the 2019 Derby and Oaks Fields. Craig will evaluate both races and assess which horses’ chances should be upgraded based on the pace scenario for each race, plus the impact of pace on the contenders’ performances in their prep races.

Q: And just to be sure, can you list all of the Stakes Previews & Selections that I will get if I buy this package?

From our analysts David Aragona, Justin Finch, and David Aragona:

Churchill Downs Friday Stakes Analysis and Strategies to be available at the top of the PPs by Thursday May 2nd at noon EDT, and will include write-ups of the four stakes ending with the Kentucky Oaks.

Churchill Downs Saturday Stakes Analysis and Strategies to be available at the top of the PPs by Friday May 3rd at 2pm:

American Turf presented by Ram Trucks (GIIT)

$400k g

8.5f

Turf

Churchill Downs S (GI)

$500k g

7f

Dirt

Humana Distaff (GI)

$500k g

7f

Dirt

Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (GI)

$3,000k g

10f

Dirt

Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (GIIT)

$400k g

8f

Turf

Old Forester Turf Classic (GIT)

$1,000k g

9f

Turf

Pat Day Mile presented by LG&E and KU (GIII)

$400k g

8f

Dirt

Q: I’m already an Unlimited Access PPs Subscriber for $74.95 a month. Will I get the Kentucky Derby Weekend Package as part of this subscription?

A: If you’re on our Unlimited Monthly PP Plan, you’ll get access to all the PPs, but you’ll need to separately buy the Derby Weekend Package to gain access to the Betting Strategies from our experts. Please note: Unlimited Annual Subscribers ($699 a year, email us at tfussupport@drf.com if interested) have access to all Betting Strategy Content.

Other questions? Email us and we’ll help you out.

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Wednesday, April 17

Race 3: Americano (#2)

  • Was facing a significantly tougher field in his only prior turf start.
  • Is bred to handle this surface as a son of the classy turf/synthetic-specialist Moment of Majesty.
  • The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the early lead in a situation favoring the front-runner.

6-1 on ML

———

Race 7: Catch a Cab (#4)

  • Assuming favored Dowse’s Beach’s form continues to decline, this is the fastest horse in this field.
  • Briefly lost momentum while trying to split horses in the stretch last time.
  • Is likely to be an overlay as he returns from the layoff.

6-1 on ML

———

Race 9: Annette’s Humor (#4)

  • Has raced competitively in her recent starts, which is more than the others can claim.
  • Is bred to handle this surface switch, since there is significant turf pedigree on her dam’s side.
  • Could play out as the controlling speed in a race that lacks any confirmed front-runners.

6-1 on ML

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Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: The Right Path can use speed to his advantage on class drop

Aqueduct | Race 5 | Post Time 3:36 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 
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Standard Deviation (#1) seems like the horse to beat as he makes his second start off the layoff. He actually ran quite well in his return race at Gulfstream, chasing the highly regarded colt Global Campaign to the finish. That rival returned to run fairly well in the Fountain of Youth next time out. Standard Deviation seems like the type of runner who will continue to improve with experience. He generated some buzz when he finished a late-running third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, but he was biting off more than he could chew in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his subsequent outing. Chad Brown is taking it slower with this son of Curlin as a 3-year-old, and he figures to be formidable in this spot. However, he’s facing another colt who is dropping out of a Derby prep.

Pace-Projector.png

THE RIGHT PATH (#4) has run just as fast as Standard Deviation and will also benefit from the class relief. The Right Path’s early speed could make him especially dangerous as he cuts back to a one-turn mile. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. He never got to show that speed last time when he was cut off at the start of the Tampa Bay Derby. I thought his prior effort against allowance company was quite good, as he battled on gamely through the lane despite getting shut off at the eighth pole. If Jose Lezcano puts him on the lead, it may be difficult for Standard Deviation to reel him in.

The other horse to consider is Pulsate (#2). He’s run some competitive speed figures in his recent starts against maidens, but he must prove that he can handle the stretch-out in distance. I’ll use him underneath.

THE PLAY

Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,2
Trifecta: 4 with 1 with 2,3,6

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Sunday, April 14

Race 4: Duncastle (#6)

  • His two best efforts have come on turf and he finally gets back on that surface.
  • Gets a positive trainer and rider switch off the claim.
  • Ran better than it appears in his most recent turf effort last September, making a premature wide move.

6-1 on ML

———

Race 5: The Right Path (#4)

  • The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the leader and he is predicted to be in front early.
  • Was always out of position after breaking a bit slowly in the Tampa Bay Derby.
  • Ran better than it seems two back when he got shut off at the eighth pole at Gulfstream.

2-1 on ML

———

Race 8: Queen of Bermuda (#9)

  • The Pace Projector is predicting that she will get a fast pace to close into.
  • Proved her class against tough competition in Europe last fall.
  • Ran a remarkable race in the Breeders’ Cup, overcome trouble at the half-mile pole and a very wide trip to be a good fourth.

5-2 on ML

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Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Two turns should suit Midnight Disguise in the Top Flight

Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 5:21 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 
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It’s difficult to eliminate any of the entrants in this six-horse Top Flight Invitational. I suppose the horse to beat is Forever Liesl (#6), who won the Ladies Handicap quite impressively over this course and distance back in January. She appears to be at her best over a wet track, and she may get the kind of going on Saturday with rain in the forecast on Friday night. She should also appreciate the outside post position after not responding when driven along in the inside path going one turn last time. I believe she’s a strong contender, but she’s unlikely to offer much value as the potential favorite.

She and the rest of this field will have to run down Frostie Anne (#4), who stretches out and steps up in class as she seeks her 16th career victory. She’s earned some of the fastest speed figures in the field, but she’s also benefited from favorable circumstances and will have to deal with the speed of rival Jump Ruler (#3) this time. I prefer some of the longer prices.

Midnight-Disguise.png

My top pick is MIDNIGHT DISGUISE (#1). This filly is admittedly a favorite of mine, but I believe she’s finally landing in the right spot now in her third start off the layoff. She actually ran deceptively well in her 4-year-old debut in the Biogio’s Rose two back. Whereas Frostie Anne was riding a gold rail that day, Midnight Disguise rallied to be second despite going four wide on the far turn. She didn’t handle a wet track last time, and that may be a concern yet again with the track rated sloppy early in the day. On the other hand, she is likely to benefit from the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles. She won going this distance in the Busanda last year and she gives every impression that the farther she goes, the more dangerous she will be.

The other horse that I want to use at a bigger price is Another Broad (#2). She never had a chance going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream last time, and this stretch-out to 9 furlongs should really suit her. She’s bred to run all day as a daughter of Include out of a dam who was second in the 10-furlong Delaware Handicap. A wet track would only help her chances.

THE PLAY

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,6
Trifecta: 1 with 2,6 with ALL

 

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TimeformUS Kentucky Derby Prep Analysis: Sueno looks tough to beat in the Lexington

Keeneland | Race 9 | Post Time 5:43 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 
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The major Kentucky Derby prep race on Saturday is the Arkansas Derby, but Keeneland’s Grade 3 Lexington could also produce a starter or two for the big race this year. Both Anothertwistafate and Sueno enter this penultimate Derby qualifying event seeking the requisite points to guarantee a place in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

Lexington-Pace-Projector

Like the Arkansas Derby, this Lexington attracted a field that is loaded with early speed types. It is no surprise that the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace given the presence of Knicks Go (#7), Zenden (#4), and Hawaiian Noises (#2). Even likely favorite Anothertwistafate (#4) has run his best races on the front end and will be seeking to attain a forward early position. This race features a pair of capable closers, Harvey Wallbanger (#5) and Roiland (#10), whose Late Pace Ratings of 107 and 109, respectively, are the highest in the field.

Let’s go through the field:

#1, SHANG (10-1): This Louisiana-bred moved through his state-bred maiden and allowance conditions with ease prior to taking down a pair of stakes. The most recent of those victories – an 8 3/4-length triumph at the Fair Grounds on the Louisiana Derby undercard – earned him a chance in graded stakes company. While he dominated that group, he was sent off at 1-5 odds for a reason. There was no serious competition for him and he was ridden out through the lane to achieve his modest winning speed figure. He has not yet run fast enough to be considered a serious contender against a field of this caliber. Pass.

#2, HAWAIIAN NOISES (10-1): He’s done well at Turfway Park this winter, winning an allowance race and a minor stakes over sprint distances. Yet this Lexington represents a significant step up in class, as well as his first attempt around two turns. His pedigree is unquestionably sprint-oriented, as his three best siblings – Conquest Panthera, Maniacal, and Happy Like a Fool – were all best going shorter distances. He figures to contest the pace, but is unlikely to be around at the end. Pass.

Sueno

#3, SUENO (5-1): He’s obviously the main threat to the favorite, Anothertwistafate, so we should immediately let go of any illusions that his 5-1 morning line will be actualized on the tote board. A price around 5-2 would be more than fair on a horse who has already proven his quality against some of the top 3-year-old dirt horses in the country. While he didn’t experience nearly as much trouble as Long Range Toddy in the Southwest, he also lost some momentum approaching the quarter pole and rallied on well to be second. His Louisiana Derby was disappointing, but he may not have appreciated having to inherit the role of pace-presser in a field that lacked early speed. This time Corey Lanerie can let him settle in mid-pack and launch one run. The slight turnback to 1 1/16 miles should also work in his favor. I know many racing fans are quite taken with Anothertwistafate, but I believe this Keith Desormeaux trainee is a more likely winner of this race. The selection.

Anothertwistafate

#4, ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (2-1): Your opinion of this horse probably hinges on your assessment of the Sunland Park Derby. I wasn’t thrilled with that race from a class perspective and was surprised that it was assigned a Beyer Speed Figure as high as 94. It was difficult to make accurate numbers for that Sunland Park card given that the track changed late in the day. In my opinion, the 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure is better aligned with the quality of the horses in that field, and that number hardly makes him a more likely winner than Sueno. I’ll be interested to see if this son of Scat Daddy can transfer his form to the dirt course at Keeneland. I still believe that this colt is far more turf-inclined, as his pedigree would suggest, and horses with turf preferences are sometimes able to handle very tight, hard dirt courses, which is what he encountered at Sunland Park. I’m not totally convinced that he will be at his best over a deeper dirt surface at Keeneland. Furthermore, the prospect of a fast pace could force him to exert too much energy in the early portion of the race. A vulnerable favorite.

#5, HARVEY WALLBANGER (7-2): There are only two true closers in this field and this colt is the one that is likely to attract more support. He never had a chance in a slow-paced edition of the Florida Derby last time, so I won’t hold that 8th place finish against him. Unfortunately, I wasn’t thrilled with his Holy Bull either. The paltry 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for that victory is significantly slower than the best numbers earned by his main rivals. My feeling is that this horse took advantage of a favorable set of circumstances when he earned that Grade 2 triumph, but he’s unlikely to recapture that glory anytime soon. Using underneath.

#6, CHASE THE GHOST (30-1): He was no match for stakes company in either the LeComte or Risen Star and has just failed to step forward since exiting the maiden ranks. Pass.

#7, KNICKS GO (15-1): The connections of this Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up are pressing on after a crushing fall from grace during the Derby prep season. At this point, his two Grade 1 performances last fall in Kentucky seem like distant memories. None of his surrounding efforts make him remotely competitive agains graded stakes company and I seen no reason why he should rebound. Pass.

#8, OWENDALE (12-1): He didn’t work out the best trip in the Risen Star, as he failed to attain his preferred forward position and was forced to race wide around both turns. I’m willing to throw out that race, but it’s not as if his prior form makes him all that appealing. He has yet to break a triple-digit TimeformUS Speed Figure and the allowance race he won two back has not been flattered in subsequent months. Pass.

Zenden

#9, ZENDEN (6-1): The 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned in the Tampa Bay Derby is easily the highest number in this field. That race featured a fast and contested early pace, and Zenden did well to hang on for fourth after leading the field into the stretch. The form of that prep was validated when Tacitus returned to take the Wood Memorial and Win Win Win finished a troubled second in the Blue Grass last weekend. The major question for Zenden is certainly not his ability, but rather his projected trip. He’s drawn a difficult outside post position with all of his main pace rivals breaking inside of him. He was hard-ridden to make the lead from an outside slot at Tampa, but he paid the price in the stretch. I have doubts that he can last for the entire 1 1/16 miles with a similar trip. On the other hand, this horse would be very dangerous if one of his expected pace rivals decides to rate, or if Tyler Gaffalione is able to slot him into a stalking position heading into the clubhouse turn. I won’t be shocked if Zenden turns for home with a clear advantage and he just might be able to last in the short stretch. The main threat.

#10, ROILAND (15-1): Harvey Wallbanger is the closer that many horseplayers will gravitate toward, but I prefer this Tom Amoss trainee. His 109 TimeformUS Late Pace Rating is the highest in the field, 2 points better than that of Harvey Wallbanger. While he hasn’t threatened to win any of the prep races in which he’s participated, it’s not as if he’s been disgraced in those races. The LeComte and Louisiana Derby just did not set up for him from a race flow standpoint. Yet he showed that he could capitalize on a more favorable setup when he closed to be third in the Risen Star, and this race figures to feature a similar pace scenario. James Graham just has to drop back soon after the start and launch one late run. As long as he avoids significant ground loss, I won’t be shocked if he passes most of the field. Using underneath.

 

THE PLAY

The two main players are Anothertwistafate (#4) and Sueno (#3), and I strongly prefer the latter runner. This Keith Desormeaux trainee has run well in all of his preps to date while facing stiff competition. This slight turnback should work in his favor and he projects to work out a great trip. I don’t trust Anothertwistafate, so I will try to get Zenden (#9) and Roiland (#10) into the exotics to add some value.

Win: 3

Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,9,10

Trifecta: 3 with 4,5,9,10 with 4,5,9,10

 

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, April 13

Race 1: Driven to Compete (#4)

  • Earned a respectable 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his return at Parx despite losing at odds of 2-1.
  • The two horses who dueled with him last time lost by margins of 16 and 19 lengths.
  • Should appreciate stretching back out to the one-mile distance, at which he’s won both prior starts.

3-1 on ML

———

Race 3: Wonder Stone (#2)

  • Showed promise as a 2-year-old before heading to the sidelines.
  • Is bred to improve on grass as a half-sister to a turf winner, and being out of a dam who is a half-sister to Bricks and Mortar.
  • DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past 5 years, Wesley Ward is 12 for 37 (32 percent, $2.94 ROI) with horses switching from synthetic to turf sprints.

7-2 on ML

———

Race 8: Midnight Disguise (#1)

  • Ran deceptively well in her return in the Biogio’s Rose, closing wide against a rail bias.
  • Should relish the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles, given her size and the fact that she won going this far in her fourth career start.
  • Would benefit from a fast track, so be wary of rain in the forecast.

6-1 on ML

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