Belmont Horses in Focus for Thursday, October 12th

Race 4: Golden Seal (#9)

Was running on late against a decent field of maidens in his Saratoga debut.

Brad Cox gets a 100 Trainer Rating with horses trying turf for the first time.

Is a half-brother to 4 turf winners, including multiple stakes-placed Ack Naughty.

3-1 on ML

 

Race 7: Clever Royal (#2)

The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and he should be stalking the pace.

Robertino Diodoro gets a 93 Trainer Rating first off the claim.

Was facing graded stakes-caliber runners like Collected, Accelerate, and Danzing Candy in his last two starts at this distance.

12-1 on ML

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Monday’s TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Gift Box may be vulnerable to Doyouknowsomething

Belmont | Race 7 | Post Time 4:13 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs: https://timeformus.com/preview/226854

Can you trust Gift Box (#6) as the favorite in this race? Sure, 6 1/2 furlongs may have been a little too short for him last time, but I really didn’t like what I saw from him. He was a lukewarm favorite, at best, for the duration of the wagering and then didn’t pick up his feet at any point during the running. I know he likely will step forward with the stretch-out, and his races from last year would beat this field, but I’m still a little skeptical.

I think this race is a bit more wide-open than it seems at first glance, so I’m taking a shot with DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING (#2).

This horse’s last race is not as bad as it seems since he was chasing a fast pace and broke open the race around the turn. That event was dominated by closers late, and Doyouknowsomething hung in gamely until the late stages. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead. Becker’s Galaxy figures to take early command, but Doyouknowsomething should be his closest early pursuer. This horse has run plenty of races that would give him a big chance here, and his price is likely to drift up given the likelihood of Gift Box going off as an overwhelming favorite.

THE PLAY

Win: 2
Exacta box: 2, 6
Trifecta: 2 with 3, 5, 6 with 1, 3, 5, 6

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Belmont Horses in Focus for Monday, October 9th

Race 1: Special Dividend (#6)

Ran competitive races on this circuit over the winter at Aqueduct.

Would appreciate any rain that comes, since she is 2-for-2 on off tracks.

DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Chris Englehart is 23 for 83 (28%, $2.68 ROI) with horses going from turf to dirt sprints.

5-2 on ML

 

Race 7: Doyouknowsomething (#2)

Got involved chasing a fast pace last time, and put away the other speed.

That last race was dominated by closers, and the track is color-coded as favoring late runners in TimeformUS PPs.

Will offer value in a race where I don’t totally trust Gift Box to regain his three-year-old form.

6-1 on ML

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Sunday’s TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Ultimate Cause will relish the class relief

Belmont | Race 2 | Post Time 1:28 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
 
Fancy Kitten (#1) is likely to go off as the favorite here, since she’s dropping in class and going out for the Chad Brown barn. However, not only did she not take a step forward for the new barn last time, but she really didn’t do any significant running in that race. I know it came against tougher competition, but she’s not the kind of horse I want to bet at a short price off that kind of effort.
 
Tisbury (#5) seems more reliable, since she’s run reasonably well in her races, and just didn’t get the right trip last time at Saratoga. This drop in class should agree with her and I’m not sure that she isn’t actually better going shorter.
 
 
I’ll use the aforementioned pair, but my top pick is ULTIMATE CAUSE (#6). If this filly runs back to her race two back off the layoff at Monmouth, she can certainly win this. I know that her last race looks disappointing at first glance, but she did not get the savviest of rides that day. She was hustled along early in the race, and was always out of position before getting shuffled back around the turn. I believe she’s better than that effort. Now she gets some realistic class relief, and adds Lasix for the first time.
 
I also want to use some of the likely speeds underneath, particularly Wish Upon (#3). The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the runners on or near the lead, and she has a chance to control this race on the front end.
 
THE PLAY
 
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 6 with 1,5 with 1,2,3,5
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Belmont Horses in Focus for Sunday, October 8th

Race 1: Silver Fern (#6)
Figures to offer value since likely favorite Radiant Beauty will be an underlay.
Is bred to handle turf, since her dam has produced two turf stakes winners and is a full-sister to a Group 1 winner on grass.
DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Bill Mott is 5 for 21 (24%, $4.55 ROI) with second-time starters going from dirt sprints to turf routes in maiden special weight races.
5-1 on ML

Race 3: War Eagle’s Return (#1A)
Improved in his first start for Greg DiPrima last time.
Figures to get a solid pace to close into with three key speeds signed on.
DRF Formulator Fact: Over the past five years, Greg DiPrima is 10 for 43 (23%, $4.71 ROI) horses making their second off the claim.
5-1 on ML

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Saturday’s TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Aveenu Malcainu looks ready to step up in the Champagne

Belmont | Race 8 | Post Time 4:13 p.m. (ET) | Go to the FREE TimeformUS PPs
 
There are many runners to consider in this wide-open Champagne. Honorable Treasure (#9) is probably the horse to beat given the strength of his maiden win relative to the rest of this field. He earned the highest speed figures (90 Beyer, 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure) in the field in that score, and the number was validated by runner-up Ezmosh returning to improve while winning next time out. He must avoid getting caught up in what is predicted to be a fast pace by the Pace Projector, but I think he’s one that you can reasonably trust.
 
Of the pair coming out of the Saratoga maiden race on Aug. 26, I prefer maiden Good Magic (#6) to the winner – and morning line favorite in this race – Hazit. The latter was on the rail for much of the way setting a very slow pace, whereas Good Magic had to sit outside and stayed on well through the stretch. Good Magic is bred to stretch out in distance and I think it’s a good sign that Chad Brown is placing him so aggressively..
 
Enticed (#4) is another runner that has a right to improve in his second start, but he will really need to do so given how slow his debut came back. However, Kiaran McLaughlin does have solid numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 4 for 8 (50%, $5.13 ROI) with two-year-old debut winners coming back in graded stakes on the dirt. Another runner that figures to be a decent price and is one that I want to include somewhere is Kowboy Karma (#1), who may find this one-turn mile more to his liking after showing promise sprinting earlier in his career.
 
I’ll use all of these, but my top pick is the New York-bred AVEENU MALCAINU (#8).
 
 
In a race where experience will almost definitely come into play, I want Aveenu Malcainu. He has been a professional sort right from the start, making eye-catching wide runs to victory at Saratoga in both of his starts. It’s not as if the Saratoga main track was strongly favoring inside speed on the days that he ran, but it’s still somewhat atypical to see two-year-olds handle themselves the way he did in his pair of runs up at the Spa. I know he wasn’t facing quality fields in those races, but he ran competitive speed figures, and he doesn’t figure to have any trouble stretching out to this one-turn mile. Furthermore, his versatile running style should enable Luis Saez to work out a favorable trip.
 
THE PLAY
 
Win: 8
Exacta Box: 6,8,9
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,4,10
Trifecta: 8 with 1,4,6,9 with 1,4,6,7,9,10,11
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Belmont Horses in Focus for Saturday, October 7th

Race 7: Helooksthepart (#6)

Still closed well despite getting a slow pace ahead of him last time.

The main track was favoring inside runners on August 16, and he was wide for most of his trip.

Robertino Diodoro gets a 100 Trainer Rating with claimers dropping in class.

4-1 on ML

Race 8: Aveenu Malcainu (#8)

Has been very professional in his two starts, which should be an advantage against this inexperienced field.

Should have no problem handling this one-mile distance given his pedigree and running style.

Jeremiah Englehart gets a 100 Trainer Rating when teaming up with jockey Luis Saez.

6-1 on ML

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