Two new features have been added to TimeformUS Past Performances: Running Style, and Early/Late Ratings.
Here’s more information on each:
Possible Classifications for each horse:
Leader (A one-dimensional front-running horse)
Speed (A horse who races on or near the early lead)
Tracker (Generally a stalking type of horse, or one with a very tractable running style)
Midpack (A horse who generally races in the middle of the pack)
Closer (A stretch-running horse who comes from the back of the pack)
Plodder (A one-dimensional horse who languishes at the back of the pack)
The Running Style is each horse’s recent, historical running style, based on his last several performances. The Running Style is not race-specific. If all the horses in a race are “closers,” they will all be listed as closers. We will not make one of the closers a “leader” simply because it’s a race full of closers. If the horse’s “personality” is that of a closer, he will be described as a closer today, even if the unique circumstances of today’s race make it likely that he will find himself more forwardly placed than usual.
You’ll often see these running styles represented visually in our Pace Projector, and since we’ve added them to each horse’s past performances, you’ll have an even clearer understanding of where a horse is usually positioned during a race.
The Early/Late Ratings are created by looking at a horse’s last four races, and factoring in Running Style with early/late velocity to come up with a rating to predict the early/late ability of each horse.
Factors like distance and surface are also considered. For example, a horse that closes in 23 seconds on dirt will usually get a higher late rating than one that closes in 23 seconds on turf. A horse that closes in 23 seconds at one mile would get a much better late rating than a horse finishing in 23 seconds at 6f.
How to use Early Ratings
“Early ratings” are especially useful in races lacking a Pace Projector. In races where not enough pace data exists to create a Pace Projector, looking at each horse’s “early rating” will help you identify the potential early leader.
How to use Late Ratings
“Late ratings” are especially useful when it seems a race will favor closers, and you want to know which closer will be coming home fastest. If a track is favoring closers, or if the pace setup of a given race will favor closers, using the “late rating” can help you identify the strongest closer.