Two new features have been added to TimeformUS Past Performances: Running Style, and Early/Late Ratings.
Here’s more information on each:
Possible Classifications for each horse:
Leader (A one-dimensional front-running horse)
Speed (A horse who races on or near the early lead)
Tracker (Generally a stalking type of horse, or one with a very tractable running style)
Midpack (A horse who generally races in the middle of the pack)
Closer (A stretch-running horse who comes from the back of the pack)
Plodder (A one-dimensional horse who languishes at the back of the pack)
The Running Style is each horse’s recent, historical running style, based on his last several performances. The Running Style is not race-specific. If all the horses in a race are “closers,” they will all be listed as closers. We will not make one of the closers a “leader” simply because it’s a race full of closers. If the horse’s “personality” is that of a closer, he will be described as a closer today, even if the unique circumstances of today’s race make it likely that he will find himself more forwardly placed than usual.
You’ll often see these running styles represented visually in our Pace Projector, and since we’ve added them to each horse’s past performances, you’ll have an even clearer understanding of where a horse is usually positioned during a race.
The Early/Late Ratings are created by looking at a horse’s last four races, and factoring in Running Style with early/late velocity to come up with a rating to predict the early/late ability of each horse.
Factors like distance and surface are also considered. For example, a horse that closes in 23 seconds on dirt will usually get a higher late rating than one that closes in 23 seconds on turf. A horse that closes in 23 seconds at one mile would get a much better late rating than a horse finishing in 23 seconds at 6f.
How to use Early Ratings
“Early ratings” are especially useful in races lacking a Pace Projector. In races where not enough pace data exists to create a Pace Projector, looking at each horse’s “early rating” will help you identify the potential early leader.
How to use Late Ratings
“Late ratings” are especially useful when it seems a race will favor closers, and you want to know which closer will be coming home fastest. If a track is favoring closers, or if the pace setup of a given race will favor closers, using the “late rating” can help you identify the strongest closer.
So Saturday upcoming. August 25th. Ellis the 9th race. Horse is Marquee Moment. Last four races the horse has finished races with highh 70,s mid 80,s and 90,s for his pace figures and you show his late speed as a 59. I don’t get it……
This explains it far better than I could with a short reply here on the blog:
Hope that helps. Let me know if you have further questions.
Do TimeformUS figures have a late pace figure (after pace call to finish) in each line like Brisnet? If not, is there a plan to do so?
We do not show it specifically, we give one late pace figure that is based on the last five races, or less if that is all that is available. What you mention can be calculated and may be something we add as an option for pace figures—incremental rather than just accrued.
Here is a quick example of how to do it.
6f race, horse runs—
That is what we show now, accrued. The 1/2 figure of 90 is for the entire first half mile, and the 100 finish is for the whole 6f.
Incremental would look like this
The formula is this—
(Pace2Figure x Pace2Furlongs – Pace1Figure x Pace1Furlongs ) / (Pace2Furlongs – Pace1Furlongs)
where Pace 2 is the longest of the fractions.
1/2 = (90 x 4 – 80 x 2) / (4 – 2) = 100
1/2 to Fin = (100 x 6 – 90 x 4) / (6 – 4) = 120
1/4 to Fin = (100 x 6 – 80 x 4) / (6 – 2) = 140
Hi – where do I find articles on your past performances. I am looking for the info regarding color coding of pace figures likr “Red”, is very fast, “Blue” low pace etc.
And I’m sure others have suggested this but it would be great to put the Early # – Running Style – Late # on the PREVIEW page under the Spotlight # – or at least give folks an option to click a button and have them appear for all the horses on that page. Thanks.
what are pts per length for early and late?
Are the numbers tied to a scale of 0-100 like the other time form #s?
While numbers are numbers and we can always make relative comparisons, have you determined what is a “good” early number and what is a good late # ? That is, while they will be relative to each other in a race, if they are all weak (or under a certain meaningful cutoff) then they have less significance.
Also is there any comparison that we can see or use with regard to the early/late numbers and the pace numbers? I realize there has to be some correlation in the making of the numbers but am trying to get a handle on how to look at the numbers together to see if that boosts the analysis and returns. Thanks in advance for your time on this.
The numbers attempt to rate which are the fastest early speed horses, and which are the fastest late. They are not tied to running style.
The early rating is 55 and late rating is 78. Is it a closer because of higher late rating? Is there any “guideline” like from 100-110 early rating it is a leader, for 90-100 speed etc?
I find it funny that you show new upgrades by using a horse named “Upgrade” 🙂 Appreciate the continual introduction of new tools. Happy New Year