Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 5:02 p.m. (ET)

American Law (#6) might be a deserving favorite in this starter allowance as he comes off a victory at the N1X allowance level. However, it’s fair to question the quality of that affair given the close nature of the finish, with 5 horses crossing the wire within one and a half lengths of each other. American Law was lucky to find a split in upper stretch and fought gamely for the victory. He’s been in solid form recently and seems to fit well at this level. Though he was a generous price last time and now you have to accept much shorter odds on a horse who hasn’t exactly been a win machine.

I much prefer his main rival Gentleman Joe (#2), who figures to be a better price. This 8-year-old has serious back class, earning some big speed figures for prior connections in his past. He went off form between 2022 and 2023, but he seemed to get back on track when returning from a layoff for Rick Dutrow earlier this winter. That Dec. 10 effort is better than it might appear, as the second and third place finishers both returned to run well in subsequent starts, and Gentleman Joe soundly defeated them. He then delivered another good effort at the $40k level last time, just run down in the late stages by a longshot. Yet the 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned makes him every bit as fast as the favorite. He was claimed by David Jacobson and given some time between starts. Yet he’s been on a steady work pattern into this race and notably is moving into a protected spot. Jacobson is 7 for 25 (28%, $4.13 ROI) first off the claim in allowance dirt races over the past 5 years. He projects to get a good trip and I think he’s the most likely winner.

Another horse that I would use in vertical wagers with the top pick is Skylander (#4). He still has to prove that he can recapture the strong form that he found last fall, when he impressively won a starter allowance before outrunning his 44-1 odds in an N1X allowance. While the results have been poor since returning from a layoff, he’s been in some tough spots and might be getting mild class relief here. I would just demand a generous price given the low-profile connections.

Allaboutthemoney (#8) is another possible value option. He finished 5 lengths behind American Law last time, but he never looked totally comfortable racing behind the leading group, and had trouble angling into the clear through the stretch. He does seem to do his best running when he can get over to the rail, which might not happen from a wide draw. Yet drawing outside might give him an opportunity to attain better forward position, as he did when he won two back.