Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:31 p.m. (ET)

I’m skeptical of both horses who could vie for favoritism in this N1X allowance affair. Timely Conquest (#5) figures to attract support as she steps up against open company for the first time after clearing her final New York-bred allowance condition. However, she had all the best of it from a trip standpoint on that occasion, setting the pace along the rail on a day that featured an inside bias. Her prior form had been inconsistent and I’m not quite convinced that she’s back in the form that we saw from her last summer. Frau Diablo (#7) is the other speedy type who seems likely to take money in this spot. She was also with the track profile in her last race when riding the inside path to finish second at this level behind Sweetest Princess, who also spent plenty of time inside. That was at least a better effort over a sloppy track than her prior attempt on wet going, and she’s likely to encounter a surface with moisture in it on Thursday. I just think both of these horses are vulnerable, especially with a front-running longshot drawn between them.

The horse with the best recent effort might be Dame Cinco (#2), who ran well to be second behind subsequent stakes winner Security Code at this level on Jan. 5. However, she failed to perform as well over a sloppy track last time behind Frau Diablo. Perhaps she just needs fast going, but she also was compromised by a wide trip in her last start. I think she can bounce back here, but would need a price given her wet track form.

Virtual Reality (#3) merits some consideration going out for the Chad Brown barn. She’s trying to find an identity after trying a variety of surfaces and distances so far in her brief career. She didn’t run that well turning back to a dirt sprint on Nov. 26, but that race was dominated towards the front end. She should catch some pace in here, and did win going this distance on debut.

My top pick is Mongolian Panther (#1), who also competed in that Nov. 26 race at this level and actually might have run the best race, closing well after getting squeezed out of position on the backstretch. Her form tailed off after that, and she was given a few weeks off after her Jan. 5 start. She returned 50 days later, a decent layoff by David Jacobson’s standards, and showed some mild improvement on Feb. 24. She had good early position but got mildly shuffled back inside on the turn before coming on again late. She hasn’t gone as far as 7 furlongs in a while, but I think she’s going to appreciate the added ground in her second start of the form cycle.