Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 4:00 p.m. (ET)

Colonel Vargo (#8) is the enigmatic likely favorite in this $12,500 claimer. He looked like a horse that was on his way up the class ladder last fall, on the cusp of competing against tougher allowance optional claiming types. However, after winning 4 dirt races in a row culminating with that N1X victory on Nov. 24, things started to go awry. He disappointed when shipped to Oaklawn in December, and then lost at a short price at Parx. Jacobson was seemingly ready to give up last time, as he dropped him sharply in class down to the $10k level. He got the job done, but he was inside early in that race on Jan. 18, which featured an extremely strong rail bias. He did drift off the inside in the stretch and started tiring in an underwhelming victory. He was a voided claim that day and now is back at a similarly cheap price tag. He’s the horse to beat, but I’m skeptical he can maintain this form.

There is also other speed to make the favorite work early. Striking Speed, Charlie Five O, and Mr Phil all want to be forwardly placed along with him. Dynamite Karma (#9) is another who could be part of the pace, but at least he’s drawn well outside of those rivals. While this gelding’s recent form might lead some to believe he doesn’t want to sprint, he didn’t get a great trip when he tried 6 furlongs recently at Laurel. He ran much better going a mile last time at Penn National against a decent field, only to get leg weary late. I don’t mind the turnback for him, and he appears to fit based on class.

If this race comes apart, there are some closer to consider. First Deputy (#5) owns the best recent race of those, having won at this level last time on Feb. 25. That was probably the right day to have him, as he went off at generous 5-1 odds off an against-the-bias trip two back in that Jan. 18 race own by Colonel Vargo.

Another horse coming out of that same race is F F Rocket (#4), who actually ran better than First Deputy in defeat. Like that runner, he was also race 3 to 4-wide in that Jan. 18 event, run on a day that featured one of the strongest rail biases of the meet. Yet unlike First Deputy, F F Rocket never gave up despite that trip, passing horses through the stretch to finish a very respectable fourth. This horse has always been dangerous whenever he’s entered at the appropriate class level in races that feature some pace. I also like that he’s claimed back by Lolita Shivmangal, who is one of the most underrated trainers on the NYRA circuit from a value standpoint. She had success with him in 2023, and I find it encouraging that she’s keeping him at a level at which he can win.