Aqueduct | Race 3 | Post Time 2:20 p.m. (ET)

Chad Brown sends out a pair of runners in this maiden special weight event, of which Clare Quilty (#1) is likely to go favored. This son of Into Mischief took plenty of money on debut, going favored in a race where a few rivals had already run well. He put in a pretty professional effort, taking up a stalking position soon after the start and briefly forging to the lead in deep stretch before getting overhauled late by the deep closing Hero’s Medal. It was a solid if belated start to this 4-year-old’s career, and he certainly has a right to take a step forward second time out. Chad Brown is a solid 32 for 93 (34%, $1.90 ROI) with 3-year-old and older maiden second time starters in dirt routes over 5 years. However, this colt figures to be a very short price and he does have to overcome the rail draw this time.

I actually prefer Brown’s other horse, Pricing Power (#6). This 5-year-old gelding has had trouble staying on the racetrack. He made his debut late in his 3-year-old season at Keeneland, showing speed and fading, and then wasn’t seen again until last month at Aqueduct. Competing in the same race as Clare Quilty, he was aggressively ridden to overcome a mildly tardy start, rushing up to set the pace. Notably, he was guided over to the inside on Feb. 9, when the rail seemed to be a significant disadvantage in the second half of the day. We have already seen horses who rode the rail on that card in surrounding races come back to win at nice prices. Pricing Power might have run better than his stablemate given his positioning on the track, and he also has a license to move forward second off the long layoff. It’s a good sign that Chad Brown is still running him in maiden special weight races after all this time. He drew a better post position than last time, and is bred to handle the added ground.