Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:31 p.m. (ET)

Venti Valentine (#7) has to be viewed as the horse to beat based on her overall body of work in races like this. A mile is her best distance and this time she’s not facing anyone as talented as Fingal’s Cave or Dr B, who defeated her in her last couple of starts going this far. She’s unfortunately brought the rain with her recently, as she’s caught a series of wet tracks and is likely to encounter another on Sunday with all the rain predicted on Saturday. Yet she seems to be just fine regardless of going, She was beaten by today’s rival Security Code last time, but was finishing best of all going a distance that is a bit short for her. She can easily rebound against a group like this, but doesn’t figure to be much of a price.

Security Code (#1) got the better of that rival last time in the Broadway, but that was going 7 furlongs. This filly hasn’t gone as far as a mile since her two-year-old season, when she was unsuccessful stretching out. She is in better form now, as she displayed last time when she transferred her consistent allowance performances to the stakes level. However, she was nearly 6-1 that day and figures to be a shorter price as she goes for the repeat against what appears to be a slightly tougher field.

One alternative to consider is Lady Mine (#5), as she steps back up into stakes company after winning 4 of her last 5 starts. She’s been in great form since the claim by Jeremiah Englehart, and probably would be undefeated for this barn if not for breaking slowly and racing wide against a rail bias on Jan. 19. The big question for her is the stretch-out in distance, she’s never gone this far before. She also has to get out of the gate cleanly, since she does tend to break slowly.

My top pick is Bustin Bay (#4). This mare returns on relatively short rest, having won here just 10 days ago for Adam Rice, who was deputizing for the suspended Linda during that time. Bustin Bay has generally been consistent over the past two seasons, so it was surprising to see her finishing off the board a couple of times late last year. However, she seemed to bounce back to her best form last time, regaining her early speed en route to a front-running victory against a solid open company field. That performance earned her a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which compares up quite favorably to her main rivals here. Linda Rice is 5 for 14 (36%, $2.80 ROI) with horses running back in 13 days or less in dirt stakes over 5 years, and she’s 2 for 4 with last-out winners in that sample.