Welcome to the TimeformUS Blog

Hello and welcome to the TimeformUS blog!

The purpose of this blog is to explain features of TimeformUS Past Performances, a new horse racing product which is optimized for tablets and the web. Currently, you can purchase TimeformUS Past Performances at TimeformUS.com or in the the TVG Handicapping Store.

This blog is also a great place to ask questions and provide feedback about our new product. Use the links below to get started, and if you have questions, email us at  Support@TimeformUS.com

Visit TimeformUS.com

More TimeformUS How-To Videos

How to use TimeformUS Past Performances
TimeformUS Help Legend (PDF)
The Preview Page
The Fast PPs
• Result Charts
• The Race Finder Tool

How TimeformUS is Different
TimeformUS Speed Figures
TimeformUS Spotlight Speed Figures
TimeformUS Pace Projector
• TimeformUS Running Lines
TimeformUS Pace Figures
• TimeformUS Bias Indicators
Full Result Charts
Trainer Ratings
• Pedigree Ratings
• Race Ratings
Enhanced Foreign Running Lines
• Running Style and Early/Late Ratings

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How TimeformUS is Different

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TimeformUS
 is a new kind of horse racing Past Performances, optimized for tablets and PCs. At TimeformUS, we’re focused on helping you understand races faster. We’re perpetually refining the site and PPs: New features will be introduced regularly.  To start: here’s a top 10 list on how we’re making it easier to play the game; click the links next to each item for a deeper description or a video on how it works.

First thing’s first: if you’re looking for a PDF legend labeling all of our features, click here

1) How we make our Speed Figures
Our state-of-the-art, single-number measure of all-around performance.
Watch The Video>>
Learn More >>

2) Our Pace Projector
The breakthrough timesaver that tells you where they’re gonna be early in a race, and more.
Watch The Video>>
Learn More >>

3) Race Ratings
The TimeformUS Race Ratings help you quickly understand the quality of any race.
Watch The Video>>
Learn More >>

4) TimeformUS Pace Figures
Based on the fractional times run by each horse at each point of call in a race, TimeformUS Pace Figures give you a clear sense of the pace scenarios that a horse has faced in prior races.
Learn More >>

5) TimeformUS Color-Coded Bias Indicators
When we see a surface that favored frontrunners or closers in a horse’s previous race, we flag that running line with red or blue coloring.
Learn More >>

6) Timeform Foreign Running Lines for shippers
TimeformUS PPs offer unparalleled info on horses who previously ran overseas.
Learn More >>

7) TimeformUS Result Charts
One-click access from the 1-2-3 section of every running line,  TimeformUS Result Charts are color-coded  and fully customizable.
Learn More >>

8)  Simplified but smart TimeformUS Trainer Ratings
Our Trainer Ratings show you instantly how a trainer performs overall and in specific situations.
Watch The Video>>
Learn More >>

9) TimeformUS Race Finder
Use our Race Finder to quickly and easily find the types of races you like to play.
Watch The Video>>
Learn More >>

10) TimeformUS Pedigree Ratings based on today’s surface/distance
On a 100-point scale and based on the surface/distance of today’s race, factoring in the TimeformUS speed figures assigned to the horses in the family of today’s runner.
Learn More >>

Visit TimeformUS.com, or see below for even MORE ways in which TimeformUS is different:

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Aqueduct’s Friday Highlight Horse: Fiona’s Hero (5-1ML) has excuses that pop in our PPs

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>Aqueduct / October 31  / Race 5  / 3:12 EDT 

Today’s 5th race is for $20k claimers sprinting on the dirt. Drawn toward the outside of the field is #1A Fiona’s Hero, a Michelle Nevin-trained runner who has much going for him in this race.

Fiona’s Hero has made his last 10 starts for Nevin, since a trainer change at the end of last year. During that run of races, he has posted nine TFUS Speed Figures between 91 and 99. The only time he didn’t run up to that level was in his last start, when he finished last in an open-company allowance race over a sloppy sealed track. That also happened to be a day when speed was dominating the main-track races at Belmont Park (note Race Rating box shaded dark red). Not only was speed an advantage, but the inside seemed to be the worst part of the track, with talented runners floundering down there all day long. Fiona’s Hero was down inside all the way, as our expanded chart comments make clear: “solo rail hugger”.

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In his two prior starts, Fiona’s Hero was caught up contesting fast paces (note pace figures/fractions shaded red) over longer distances in races that fell apart late.

We like the turn-back for him today. We like the drop in class that he takes today. And we like the dirtied-up form he brings into this race today.

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TimeformUS Horses in Focus and Top Plays for Friday October 31

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Hand-selected by The TimeformUS team, Horses in Focus stand out on our feature sets, such as pace projector, TimeformUS speed figures, spotlight ratings, trainer ratings, pedigree ratings, etc. We offer expanded analysis on one of the Horses in Focus, as well as designating which horse is our Top Play on the day. Expect to see TimeformUS Horses in Focus on this blog typically every Wednesday-Sunday. If Horses in Focus are available for tracks with a later post-time, they will be added to this post throughout the day.

Today’s Top Play at Aqueduct

Race 6:

#6 Stay in Front

Did well to win in return from an extended layoff last month.

Makes first start for a dangerous trainer (97 rating first off the claim) who has had great success with turf horses off the claim.

Projects to be in a perfect pace-tracking position as she stretches out for the first time.

8/1 on ML.

Win bet on #6 Stay in Front. Exactas with #5 Wine Burglar, #9 Winner’s Legacy, and #10 My One and Only.

Additional Horse in Focus at Aqueduct

Race 4:

#7 Twist ‘n Bake

Outran her odds in debut vs. a solid field.

Had good speed that day, which she wasn’t able to display on the cut-back last time.

Trainer gets strong 90 rating going MSW to MCL.

8/1 on ML.

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Race 5:

#1A Fiona’s Hero

Takes big drop in class for this while turning back in distance.

Was involved in back-to-back fast paces going longer 2-and-3 starts back, and was stuck on a dead rail last time.

Trainer gets 99 rating dropping horses from ALW to CLM races, and a 91 going route to sprint.

5/1 on ML.

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Horse in Focus at Santa Anita

Race 8 (Juvenile Filly Turf):

Lady Zuzu, the 9 horse:

Breeding Rating of 100 out of 100 for turf.

May prove capable of rating in this spot.

Improved her top speed figure in first try in turf route.

15-1 on ML.

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Race 9 (BC Distaff):

Close Hatches, the 11 horse:

Pace Projector shows her on a clear early lead.

Her best speed figure is best in here.

Fried on the pace in last start.

Mott gets strong 86 rating off similar spacing between starts.

3-1 on ML.

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Stakes Preview – Saturday’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf

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Note: This is an excerpt from the TimeformUS analysis of ALL 13 Breeders’ Cup races. Each race is evaluated horse-by-horse, and we designate the most likely winner and a possible wagering strategy to pursue. To get the full analysis e-mailed to you tonight, buy the TimeformUS Breeders’ Cup Package:

>Details on the Breeders’ Cup Package

>Or just buy it right now

>Santa Anita/ November 1 / Race 9 / 3:22 PDT

Most Likely Winner: Flintshire

Euro-power seems likely to rule the day in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, with a pair of well-connected and talented colts in Telescope and Flintshire arriving to challenge an average-looking group of stateside runners. With the late defection of defending champ Magician, the pair of Imagining and Hardest Core could have the early advantage, but the strong duo of Telescope and Flintshire, while not included in our Pace Projector (due to a lack of data) are handy types who don’t figure to be terribly compromised.

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Here’s the field, in post position order and with the ML odds in parentheses.

#1 is Telescope (4/1). Capable of huge performances (if you haven’t already, check out his comprehensive dismantling of the Hardwicke Stakes back in June), he is not yet successful at the Group 1 level. He has given his very best in tough spots in his last two efforts, but was left wanting at the end. Sporting a Timeform Master Rating of 129, he is the more fancied of the two top European contenders by Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch, who has made him a top play for the weekend–an endorsement to take very seriously. With his tactical speed and stalking style, he does figure to adapt to American racing, and his world-class trainer knows something about which horses can do well here, having already won this race four times. Projects for the right trip from this post under Ryan Moore. and that may make all the difference. Also note: He adds Lasix.

#2 is Twilight Eclipse (12/1). Tactically inclined gelding has been so very close to taking down three straight Grade 1 races this year. As it stands, he has come up just short each time, and done so without excuse. Capable of pulling the right trip from a good draw, but he is a slight cut below the ones he’s been facing over here, and a decided cut below the Europeans.

#3 is Imagining (12/1). Typical runner from the Phipps/Shug mold, he has improved with age and experience to become a Grade 1 winner at the age of six. He has the speed to be a forward factor throughout, and the more modest the early fractions, the more dangerous he becomes. He has been bested by Main Sequence in each of his last two starts, but he was forced to do all the heavy lifting going fast early in those races. That may not be the case today, but Main Sequence isn’t the horse to beat today, either.

#4 is Brown Panther (8/1). Forced to scratch from the Canadian International after running off pre-race, he has been re-routed to this much tougher spot. Has been better than ever (Timeform Master Rating of 123) over marathon distances this season, while putting his stamina to good use. Jamie Lynch believes he may be ridden aggressively  in this “shorter” race, which makes sense to us and could give him his best chance.

#5 is Hangover Kid (30/1). Likable NY-bred has made the most of what he has, but he is not close to more than a few of these on ability.

#6 is Finnegans Wake (30/1). Got in a spin over this turf course when second most recently in a Grade 2 event, which is all well and good, but he is in over his head vs. this kind of competition.

#7 is Flintshire (7/2). Slight ML choice over Telescope, based mostly on his runner-up effort to the amazing Treve four weeks ago. Not much to choose from between him and Telescope, though Flintshire has tasted Group 1 success in the past. He clearly does not run to his best over soft ground, so his overall record of 3 wins in 10 tries is a bit misleading. All three runner-up efforts this year, to Treve, to Ruler of the World, and to Cirrus des Aigles, were excellent efforts, and if he runs back to that Arc placing here, he will likely be too much for this group. We’ll give him slight preference over his main rival, and will be unsurprised if he goes off a bit longer than his morning line odds.

#8 is Magician (SCR). Defending champ was withdrawn after coming up lame on Wednesday.

#9 is Hardest Core (10/1). No better story going on in North American racing than the one surrounding this horse, who is now 3-3 on the year after posting a surprising upset of, among others, Magician in the Grade 1 Arlington Million. He projects to be part of the pace in this race, but even a repeat of his greatest success in Chicago is unlikely to be enough.

#10 is Starspangled Heat (30/1). All are welcome at the Breeders’ Cup, but this Cal-bred has been entered into the wrong race.

#11 is Chicquita (8/1). If you haven’t purchased the TimeformUS Breeders’ Cup package, then you don’t have Jamie Lynch’s evaluation of the European shippers, and you are missing out, never more so than with the look at this filly. Master Rating of 117, with the “rogue’s badge” denoting a temperamental horse. Lasix goes on, but her antics are clearly exhibited in her running lines, and she can afford no such mistakes in this race.

#12 is Main Sequence (6/1). Has made some serious hay since arriving stateside, taking down a trio of Grade 1s, while taking the number of Twilight Eclipse repeatedly. A chronic slow starter, he has displayed an electrifying late kick in posting those wins, though he has had the right pace set-up each time, and he comes up a little slow in the face of the classier Euros. Up against it from a pace perspective, he is unlikely to be kicking down runners like Telescope and Flintshire through the stretch on Saturday.

#13 is Big John B (20/1). Added a nice Grade 2 win to his resume after arriving in California, but could subsequently do no better than 3rd as the favorite in his prep for this. Doesn’t figure to struggle with the distance, but he will with the competition.

The Play: It going to be interesting to see how things play out between Telescope and Flintshire, a pair of supremely talented colts. We’re siding with Flintshire but will cover both in multi-race wagers.

 

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TimeformUS Horses in Focus and Top Plays for Thursday October 30th

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Hand-selected by The TimeformUS team, Horses in Focus stand out on our feature sets, such as pace projector, TimeformUS speed figures, spotlight ratings, trainer ratings, pedigree ratings, etc. We offer expanded analysis on one of the Horses in Focus, as well as designating which horse is our Top Play on the day. Expect to see TimeformUS Horses in Focus on this blog typically every Wednesday-Sunday. If Horses in Focus are available for tracks with a later post-time, they will be added to this post throughout the day.

Today’s Top Play at Aqueduct

Race 5:

#4 Pura Vida Zen

Was under the gun and forced to contest the pace from the inside in last dirt start.

Projects for more comfortable trip this time tracking in behind the pace.

Trainer gets strong 98 rating going turf to dirt.

6/1 on ML.

Win bet on #4 Pure Vida Zen.

Additional Horse in Focus at Aqueduct

Race 2:

#8 False Positive

Steadied out at the break behind the talented Ostrolenka in debut.

Figures to appreciate getting back to dirt and dropping in class.

Trainer has done well from limited attempts wheeling back on short
rest with maiden claimers (93 rating).

6/1 on ML.

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Horses in Focus at Santa Anita

Race 1:

Cat Meeting, the 4 horse:

Has strong speed figures on turf.

Previous dirt starts are ancient and were for a different trainer.

Training well over this surface.

4-1 on ML.
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Race 10:

Powerful Girl, the 13 horse:

Troubled trip in last start.

Trainer does a solid job with third-time starters.

May have more early speed than was able to show in first two starts.

12-1 on ML.

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Santa Anita’s Thursday Highlight Horse: Powerful Girl at 12/1, after a subtle move last out

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>Santa Anita / October 30  / Race 10  / 5:42 PDT 

Big field of two-year-old maiden claimers going 5.5F on the dirt, and we think Powerful Girl has a chance to get involved in this thing at a big price.

Powerful Girl took some money in her debut this summer, on Del Mar Poly, but broke slowly and did little running at all. Her speed figure reflected this. It was only a 26.

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Then she was off for 72 days, but she trained well, and when she was entered back on real dirt, she again took some money. And this time she had problems at the start that were not her fault. The chart comments suggest she had trouble (“squeezed start”), and the head-on replay shows that she was indeed pinballed. Any chance for her to show more early speed was eliminated.

She recovered from this start, however. She gathered herself. Then she made up ground on the backstretch against a pace that earned the leader pace figures of 88 to the quarter and 76 to the half. (Note that the adjusted fractions and pace figures are color-coded in red, denoting a fast pace.)

Powerful Girl continued on to make a decent wide run around the turn before flattening out in the stretch. She will be making her third start today, and her trainer, veteran Hector Palma, gets a Trainer Rating of 67 with third-time starters, as opposed to an overall rating of 61. Palma is decidedly not a trainer who cranks up two-year-olds for their first two starts.

At morning line odds of 12-1, Powerful Girl looks like good value to win or at least get into the trifecta.

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Aqueduct’s Thursday Highlight Horse: Pura Vida Zen looks good going turf to dirt. Here’s why–

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>Aqueduct / October 30  / Race 5 / 3:00 EDT 

#4 Pura Vida Zen arrived at Saratoga this summer in improved form, having just posted a new TFUS Speed Figure top of 88 when blowing away a field at Finger Lakes. She backed that race up very well vs. tougher horses at Saratoga. She finished gamely that day, going after a winner who had gotten the jump on her, and earned a speed figure of 87.

She didn’t fare as well when defeated by Bobby Jo in her next start, but she was under the gun from the rail that day, and she was forced to contest the pace throughout, while Bobby Jo sat a perfect trip in behind her. She projects for a more comfortable trip in today’s race, with Pace Projector placing her in perfect position in behind the lead.

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Pura Vida Zen was claimed out of that last dirt race by the very sharp Steve Klesaris and has made her first two starts on grass. That hasn’t worked out, but she is now third off of a short layoff, and she figures to benefit from the switch back to dirt (Klesaris gets a strong 98 trainer rating going from turf to dirt).

 

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Stakes Preview: Shared Belief horse to beat in Breeders’ Cup Classic

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Note: This is an excerpt from the TimeformUS analysis of ALL 13 Breeders’ Cup races. Each race is evaluated horse-by-horse, and we designate the most likely winner and a possible wagering strategy to pursue. To get the full analysis e-mailed to you tonight, buy the TimeformUS Breeders’ Cup Package:

>Details on the Breeders’ Cup Package

>Or just buy it right now

>Santa Anita/ November 1 / Race 12 / 5:35 PDT

You have to hand it to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. No other race in North America is as sadistically efficient at the art of taking solid, workmanlike Grade 1 credentials and suddenly making them look woefully inadequate to the task at hand.

This year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, like so many before it, is a fascinating puzzle that lends itself to many plausible answers. Alas, only one of them will be proven right, which will leave a lot of great horses as “losers” at the end of this 10-furlong battle.

According to the TimeformUS Pace Projector, the early leader in the Breeders’ Cup Classic will be Bayern. Moreno will be a tight, stalking second. Then there’s a gap back to Cigar Street, who is projected to be racing on the rail. Shared Belief is in fourth place, just to his outside. California Chrome is in fifth, just outside Shared Belief. The others should be looked at as either mid-packers or closers.

The Pace Projector designates the pace of the race as favoring neither frontrunners nor closers. However, our Chief Figure Maker, Craig Milkowski, has dissected the probable pace and concluded that it will be very fast, with Moreno and Bayern compromising each other’s chances greatly.

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Now let’s look at the field in post position order, with morning line odds in parentheses:

Prayer for Relief (30-1): Consistent six-year-old finds himself in the same position as a lot of other horses in this race: He is not quite fast enough to win it. So he needs a jump. But there is little reason to expect a jump. That leaves him hoping that a perfect trip allows him to run over his head today. In Prayer for Relief’s case, a perfect trip would mean his saving all the ground behind a fast pace and finding running room late.

Cigar Street (12-1): His speed figures make him a player in here. He is fresh off a 113, earned in a minor stake at Churchill Downs. That constitutes a pair-up of his previous top in his second start back from a layoff. This is a strong pattern. It would be a lot stronger if he were a couple years younger, but he is relatively lightly raced, and he figures for a ground-saving stalking trip in here. The knock on Cigar Street is class. He has one graded stakes victory to his credit, a Grade 3 at Gulfstream last year. But Mott gets a rating of 89 third off the layoff and 96 when attempting a repeat victory. Cigar Street is a fat price on the morning line, and we consider him a very tempting play.

Imperative (30-1): If this gelding hits the board, we are going to be tearing up an awful lot of tickets.

Moreno (20-1): A tough call because the talent is plainly here. He has speed figures that fit beautifully and Grade 1 credentials. But the presence of Bayern does him no favors, and anyway, he has the look of a horse who could very well be over the top. It’s also worth noting that his trainer gets an abysmal rating of 12 at Santa Anita. Still, at a big price, Moreno is usable in exotics.

V. E. Day (20-1): Would need to bounce back to the level of his Travers victory to compete here. The problem is that his Travers figure, a 108, was a rather isolated, “ugly” number, meaning it is not the ideal target to get back to. And he got a great pace set-up in the Travers. (Note pace figures and adjusted fractions color-coded in red, signifying fast pace.) We are mildly negative on V. E. Day

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Shared Belief (9-5): So this is what a Jerry Hollendorfer horse looks like when it has foot problems? We have long admired Hollendorfer, who was buried for decades in beautiful Northern California, quietly and modestly training racehorses as well as racehorses can be trained.And now he has this gelding, who has seven wins in seven starts, three of them Grade 1s, the last one earned despite losing a tremendous amount of ground due to race riding from a competitor. The 114 speed figure that Shared Belief ran in the Awesome Again feels more like a 120 to us after the trip is accounted for, and a repeat of that effort is very likely going to give Hollendorfer the Breeders’ Cup Classic. But the odds will be short. The target on this gelding’s back will be big. And, plainly and simply, horses who run as well as Shared Belief did last time are prone to regress in their next start. So let’s call Shared Belief the most likely winner even as we steel ourselves to try to beat him.

Bayern (6-1): We do not yet see any evidence to support the popular theory that this colt is distance-challenged. What he is, in our view, is consistency-challenged. His two worst performances just happened to occur in his two longest races. But those performances were clunkers, plain and simple. They would have been clunkers even if the races were run at six furlongs. Bayern is as talented as any horse in this race. And if he does not come under excessive duress on the lead, he has a legitimate puncher’s chance to win this race at a pretty good price. He also has a legitimate chance to finish last. But with speed figures of 115 117 and 119 in his arsenal, he is a colt who will get at least some of our money if his morning line odds hold up.
Zivo (15-1): Enters off a troubled second-place finish in the JCGC. Is in a tie for fastest Late Pace rating in the field (a 114), which is a good thing because Pace Projector has him coming from last-place today. Trainer Chad Brown gets a 95 rating with older stakes horses. Has a strong pattern of speed figures: 109 103 106 108 109. A trifle slow vs. the best in here, but in the ballpark and headed in the right direction. Has a Grade 2 victory to his credit, and if he gets a strong pace set-up today, one cannot rule out his winning his first Grade 1.

Toast of New York (12-1): Has run competitive speed figures on synthetic, but makes his dirt debut today off a Breeding Rating of 44 for dirt routes. That does not inspire a lot of confidence.

Footbridge (30-1): Would need the race of his life to hit the bottom of the board.

Tonalist (5-1): Has a beautiful pattern of speed figures coming into this race–as nice a pattern of development as one will ever see. He is not yet quite as fast as his fastest rivals, but he is slowly working on that. Has a masterful trainer who gets a strong rating of 93 off comparable rest between starts. Has two Grade 1 victories to his credit. Figures to lose some ground racing in mid-pack in this big field. Could find himself in the best spot of all should the pace prove hot. A strong, strong contender who figures to be a decent price. A must-use in every hole.

Candy Boy (20-1): Sadler colt keeps on banging out efforts that are solid but not quite up to the level of winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Probably deserved to finish second in the Pensylvania Derby dominated by Bayern. In a tie for best Late Pace rating in the field. Needs a pace meltdown.

California Chrome (4-1): The last Kentucky Derby winner to run well in that same year’s BC Classic was Unbridled in 1990. Is that a strong handicapping point to make about this year’s Classic? No. But we think it is a valid political point about the Breeders’ Cup, and something to contemplate on Sunday. At any rate, California Chrome has already proven that he has more than enough talent to win this race on his best day. The TimeformUS Speed Figure of 118 that he ran in the Preakness says that loud and clear–he’ll be tough in here if he runs back to that race. The handicapping question on the table with this splendidly talented colt is whether his disappointing-but-not-awful Pennsylvania Derby performance qualifies as a springboard back to his best form or a sign that his gruelling, heroic Triple Crown campaign stripped him to an extent that leaves him incapable of firing his best shot five months later. Our feeling on this is that California Chrome is not ready to rebound just yet. And that, coupled with the likelihood that he will get an intentionally wide trip in this race, leaves us inclined to play against him today at what figure to be relatively short odds.

Majestic Harbor (20-1):

Six-year-old always fires his shot. Threat to sit back and make a run that gets him on the board if there’s a pace meltdown. We see little reason to expect any more than that.

(A/E) Big Cazanova (30-1):

We see no reason to expect anything good to come out of this horse today.

The Play:

Use Tonalist and Bayern in multi-race exotics–to be clear here, that’s what we’re most interested in at this point. Let’s see the Double payoffs going into the Classic with these two.

Also: Exactas and trifectas using Tonalist and Bayern, while also mixing in Shared Belief.

 

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