Welcome to the TimeformUS Blog

Hello and welcome to the TimeformUS blog!

The purpose of this blog is to explain features of TimeformUS Past Performances, a new horse racing product which is optimized for tablets and the web. Currently, you can purchase TimeformUS Past Performances at TimeformUS.com or in the the TVG Handicapping Store.

This blog is also a great place to ask questions and provide feedback about our new product. Use the links below to get started, and if you have questions, email us at  Support@TimeformUS.com

Visit TimeformUS.com

More TimeformUS How-To Videos

How to use TimeformUS Past Performances
TimeformUS Help Legend (PDF)
The Preview Page
The Fast PPs
• Result Charts
• The Race Finder Tool

How TimeformUS is Different
TimeformUS Speed Figures
TimeformUS Spotlight Speed Figures
TimeformUS Pace Projector
• TimeformUS Running Lines
TimeformUS Pace Figures
• TimeformUS Bias Indicators
Full Result Charts
Trainer Ratings
• Pedigree Ratings
• Race Ratings
Enhanced Foreign Running Lines
• Running Style and Early/Late Ratings

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How TimeformUS is Different

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TimeformUS
 is a new kind of horse racing Past Performances, optimized for tablets and PCs. At TimeformUS, we’re focused on helping you understand races faster. We’re perpetually refining the site and PPs: New features will be introduced regularly.  To start: here’s a top 10 list on how we’re making it easier to play the game; click the links next to each item for a deeper description or a video on how it works.

First thing’s first: if you’re looking for a PDF legend labeling all of our features, click here

1) How we make our Speed Figures
Our state-of-the-art, single-number measure of all-around performance.
Watch The Video>>
Learn More >>

2) Our Pace Projector
The breakthrough timesaver that tells you where they’re gonna be early in a race, and more.
Watch The Video>>
Learn More >>

3) Race Ratings
The TimeformUS Race Ratings help you quickly understand the quality of any race.
Watch The Video>>
Learn More >>

4) TimeformUS Pace Figures
Based on the fractional times run by each horse at each point of call in a race, TimeformUS Pace Figures give you a clear sense of the pace scenarios that a horse has faced in prior races.
Learn More >>

5) TimeformUS Color-Coded Bias Indicators
When we see a surface that favored frontrunners or closers in a horse’s previous race, we flag that running line with red or blue coloring.
Learn More >>

6) Timeform Foreign Running Lines for shippers
TimeformUS PPs offer unparalleled info on horses who previously ran overseas.
Learn More >>

7) TimeformUS Result Charts
One-click access from the 1-2-3 section of every running line,  TimeformUS Result Charts are color-coded  and fully customizable.
Learn More >>

8)  Simplified but smart TimeformUS Trainer Ratings
Our Trainer Ratings show you instantly how a trainer performs overall and in specific situations.
Watch The Video>>
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9) TimeformUS Race Finder
Use our Race Finder to quickly and easily find the types of races you like to play.
Watch The Video>>
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10) TimeformUS Pedigree Ratings based on today’s surface/distance
On a 100-point scale and based on the surface/distance of today’s race, factoring in the TimeformUS speed figures assigned to the horses in the family of today’s runner.
Learn More >>

Visit TimeformUS.com, or see below for even MORE ways in which TimeformUS is different:

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TimeformUS Horses in Focus and Top Plays for Sunday March 29th

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Hand-selected by The TimeformUS team, Horses in Focus stand out on our feature sets, such as pace projector, TimeformUS speed figures, spotlight ratings, trainer ratings, pedigree ratings, etc. We offer expanded analysis on one of the Horses in Focus, as well as designating which horse is our Top Play on the day. Expect to see TimeformUS Horses in Focus on this blog typically every Wednesday-Sunday. If Horses in Focus are available for tracks with a later post-time, they will be added to this post throughout the day.


Horses in Focus at Gulfstream

Race 6:

Huasca, the 4 horse:

Pace Projector puts her on clear early lead in race projected to favor speed.

Ran strong speed figure of 87 at longer distance two races back.

Trainer gets 95 rating off similar spacing betwen starts.

5-2 on ML.
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Race 8:

Rejoiceful, the 2 horse:

Pace Projector shows her receiving friendly inside stalking trip.

Ran competitive speed figure of 89 in last start.

Race Ratings show the supposed rise in class to be minimal.

12-1 on ML.

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Horses in Focus at Santa Anita:

Race 4:

Silent Ruler, the 5 horse:

Trainer gets 93 rating with this rider.

Dirt speed figures on upgrade.

Deep closer is up against it from pace standpoint, but useful for underneath in exotics at a price.

8-1 on ML.
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Race 5:

Birthday Song, the 8 horse:

Terribly overmatched on paper, way up in class with lousy speed figures and should be a big price.

Choked by absurd fractions on synthetic in a Golden Gate maiden claimer that was run over a speed-favoring surface.

Won race anyway and gets interesting barn switch for this.

Draws the ideal post position for this hill and has some grass breeding.

12-1 on ML.
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Race 6:

Sweet Silver, the 2 horse:

Pace Projector shows her stalking the pace early even though her pace figures are much the best.

This is generally a strong situation for a stalker to be in.

Eurton gets 96 rating with this rider.

3-1 on ML.
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Race 7:

Only Josie Knows, the 5 horse:

Back on grass for this.

Ran decent speed figure of 92 down the hill.

Can handle route.

Pace Projector shows her coming from well off projected fast pace.

Chance to hit superfecta at huge odds.

20-1 on ML.

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Horse in Focus at Golden Gate:

Race 8:

Cats Ego, the 4 horse:

Lifetime-best speed figure came in a sprint.

Trainer gets relatively strong rating when bringing horses back on short rest (72).

Lack of closers in here could allow this gelding to race in the clear early.

Shot to get into trifecta at a big price.

20-1 on ML.
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TimeformUS Horses in Focus and Top Plays for Saturday March 28th

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Hand-selected by The TimeformUS team, Horses in Focus stand out on our feature sets, such as pace projector, TimeformUS speed figures, spotlight ratings, trainer ratings, pedigree ratings, etc. We offer expanded analysis on one of the Horses in Focus, as well as designating which horse is our Top Play on the day. Expect to see TimeformUS Horses in Focus on this blog typically every Wednesday-Sunday. If Horses in Focus are available for tracks with a later post-time, they will be added to this post throughout the day.


Today’s Top Play at Aqueduct

Race 6:

#8 True Bet

Finished gamely in second career start from behind a slow pace over a speed-favoring track.

Came back with an even better race last time despite a tough trip.

Should be more forwardly placed in this race if able to get away from the gate cleanly.

4/1 on ML.

Win bet on #8 True Bet. Exactas with #1 Organic Gemini and #4 Candid Desire.

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Other Horses in Focus
Gulfstream Park:

Race 10:

Baffle Me, the 6 horse:

Has earned three speed figures of 110.

Has learned to come from off the pace.

Trainer gets rating of 81 off layoffs of similar length and rating of 90 with this rider.

10-1 on ML.
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Race 12:

Sweet Swingin, the 2 horse:

Broke slowly on speed-favoring track in most recent start.

Went on to race wide. Should benefit from fast track.

Trainer gets 82 rating with second-time routers.

6-1 on ML.
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Race 14:

Materiality, the 7 horse:

Improved speed figure by 7 points in second start.

Trainer gets 95 rating with third-time starters.

Trainer gets 98 rating with second-time routers.

7-2 on ML.
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Fair Grounds:

Race 11:

War Story, the 6 horse:

Has improved his speed figure in every start.

May have more room for short-term improvement than the favorite does.

Received a difficult trip in the Risen Star.

Trainer gets rating of 100 out of 100 with similar spacing between starts.

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Santa Anita Race 3:

Momma Tried, the 1 horse:

Been a long time since this gelding got a decent trip.

Speed figure 2 races back, a 67, is competitive.

Kathy Walsh gets 83 rating when dropping claimers in class.

Think this horse can get into trifecta or superfecta at a big price.

12-1 on ML.
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Santa Anita Race 5:

Codacious, the 8 horse:

Has the best Early Pace rating in the field by a mile.

Has the best speed figures in the field by a mile.

Appreciate cutback in distance and rider switch.

5-2 on ML.

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Saturday Stakes Preview: Will Upstart return to his best form in The Florida Derby?

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>Go to the PPs for the Florida Derby/ Post Time: 6:48 PM EDT

With its fat $1 million purse and coveted Grade 1 status, the Florida Derby is certainly a race worth winning in its own right. But its intended purpose is to be a stepping stone to the Kentucky Derby 35 days hence. It’s a prep. As such, it also offers up 170 Derby points, to be divided among the first four finishers (100-40-20-10).

This year’s running will close out a marathon 14-race card at Gulfstream Park on Saturday. It has drawn a field of nine. They will travel 9 furlongs, around two
turns, on the main track.

Screen Shot 2015-03-27 at 9.24.11 AMOur Pace Projector for the Florida Derby favors neither frontrunners nor closers, and it indicates that the longshot #2 Jack Tripp will be cutting the early pace. He will be closely tracked by ML favorite #9 Upstart, who will be just ahead of #4 Itsaknockout, the close second-choice on the line. Third choice #7 Materiality will fall in just behind those two, and to his inside will be #1 Ami’s Flatter, who is the only other entrant pegged at less than 10/1 on the ML.

>Watch a Video On How to Use Pace Projector

Here’s the field for the Florida Derby, in post position order:

#1 is Ami’s Flatter. Like ML favorite Upstart, he is by Flatter and from a dam sired by a Belmont Stakes winner. He got off to a late start, debuting in November of his 2yo year, but we like that he has improved his TFUS Speed Figures from start to start to this point (84-88-91-95). He put up that new career top while finishing 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby three weeks ago with the addition of blinkers and lasix. Still, he was no match for the talented Carpe Diem in that spot, and he is likely to have to improve again in order to win this race. We aren’t so sure he is going to be suited by taking on more distance in this race, but he has a good post on the inside and switches to a rider who knows how to take advantage of favorable circumstances.

#2 is Jack Tripp. He projects to be on the early lead in this race, but we aren’t so sure that will be to his advantage, as it ensures that he will have to race, among others, Upstart at some point. He does already own a front-running win around two turns, but he got away unchallenged in that spot, and his TFUS Speed Figure top of 85 simply won’t do in the Florida Derby.

#3 is Indianaughty. Team Valor-owned colt has never raced on dirt, but he sports a pedigree that suggests he may be able to adapt (Breeding Rating of 96 for dirt). He will be making his third start as a 3yo, and third off the layoff, while looking to take the requisite step forward in what will be his toughest test to date. He tried going to the lead in the El Camino Real last time, but he took on early pressure and did not have enough at crunch time. We liked his late-running win over turf prior to that quite a bit more, and we think his best chance to snag a big piece of this race would be to take back early and try to make one late run. If nothing else, he is one to follow back on grass down the line.

#4 is Itsaknockout. First of the Pletcher duo enters here 3-for-3 after being placed first at the expense of Upstart in the Fountain of Youth. Whether you thought that DQ was justified or not, there is no denying that this horse took a pretty big step forward in the FoY. He earned a new top figure of 99 for that effort, and it was encouraging to see him take a real run at Upstart in the stretch of that race. Perhaps he is a 3yo who is really heading the right way, and perhaps he will take another step forward today, but, to us, he had his chance to beat Upstart on the square last time, and, incident in the stretch or not, we didn’t think he was going to do it. The way we see it, he is an undefeated conqueror of Upstart on paper only, and it is his stablemate who poses the biggest obstacle to that rival today.

#5 is Quimet. He is trained by a man who knows a thing or two about developing young horses through the prep season, but this horse shows just 1 win from 5 career starts, and his career top speed figure is 79. Having a hard time envisioning him making up the 16+ lengths he has to find vs. Materiality, let alone whatever it is he has to gain on a horse like Upstart.

#6 is My Point Exactly. Stakes-winning 2yo makes his 3yo debut in the toughest of spots and has much improving to do.

#7 is Materiality. It’s going to be interesting to see what becomes of this horse, whether he breaks through in this race or not. He needs to improve from a speed figure standpoint in order to be a factor in this race, but he seems a cinch to come forward at some point. In winning his first two starts over this track for Pletcher, one sprint and one route, he looks very much like not only his stablemate in this race, Itsaknockout, but also Pletcher’s Florida Derby winner from last year, Constitution. Constitution won a sprint vs. maidens and a route vs. allowance/optional claiming company before heading straight to the 2014 Florida Derby, where he earned a new top figure to go 3-for-3. Materiality is a half-brother to the talented My Miss Sophia, who also improved in her 3rd career start for Pletcher, to win the Grade 2 Gazelle last year, and she would go on to run a big 2nd in the Kentucky Oaks in her very next start, with a TFUS Speed Figure of 110. Materiality has the pedigree and the connections, he has the looks, and he has been impressive in posting a pair of convincing wins to begin his career. Taking on a seasoned pro like Upstart in a race like this is a tall order, but if anyone is going to defeat that horse on Saturday, we think this is the guy.

#8 is Dekabrist. He began his career with back-to-back fast wins going short, but it has been all downhill from there, and he enters the Florida Derby long exposed vs. this kind of competition, and on an 11-race losing streak.

#9 is Upstart. An accomplished 2yo with a pair of Grade 1 placings, he has taken the expected step forward so far at 3. He was impressive in his 3yo debut over this track, sitting a perfect trip tracking up on the pace, and then finishing off the Grade 2 Holy Bull late en route to a new top figure of 107. It was somewhat disconcerting to find him working hard to fight off Itsaknockout in the stretch of the Fountain of Youth, though that pace was pretty solid, and Upstart did have to dispose of a talented rival in Frosted up there before taking on that late challenge. Ultimately, he was able to find enough to turn away Itsaknockout late, before being DQ’d for interference on a questionable call. We were looking for Upstart to continue going forward last time, which he clearly did not do. Still, he may have run a bit better than it looks, and he is a clear horse to beat in this race, whether he improves further or not.

The Play: We like what we’ve seen from #7 Materiality early on and think he holds the most upside in this race. If we are right in thinking that he has the potential to turn out to be a top 3yo, Saturday is the day to bet on him.

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Saturday Stakes Preview: War Story has upside in The Louisiana Derby

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>Go to the PPs for the Louisiana Derby/ Post Time: 5:24 PM CDT

On a grand day of racing in New Orleans, the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby goes as race 11 and has a field of nine three-year-old colts and geldings going a mile and 1/8 on the dirt. The field is led by International Star, who has already qualified for the Kentucky Derby and is going for his fourth graded stakes victory.

According to our Pace Projector, the pace of the Louisiana Derby will favor neither frontrunners nor closers. No surprise, the early leader is projected to be Mr. Z. St. Joe Bay is projected to be just to his outside at the opening half-mile. Defondo is shown stalking in the clear in third place.

This is the field in post position order:

Stanford (5-1): Pletcher colt has done his best work in Florida. This will be his first try at Fair Grounds. Pletcher gets a rating of 100 out of 100 at this racetrack and 98 with second-time routers. Stanford’s speed figures are a little soft relative to the fastest horses in here, but this colt is lightly raced and no prisoner to a frontrunning style. Gets a class test today. A contender.

Mr. Z (4-1): As a three-year-old, this talented lug-out artist has yet to get within 14 points of his two-year-old top. That is a distinct negative. Durable, for sure, and a good thing, too, because his durabilitfree membership ady gets put to the test at seemingly every opportunity. Blinkers come off today. There are no class questions with this horse, who finished in a three-way photo with Dortmund and Firing Line in December, nor are there talent questions with a horse who has run a speed figure of 106. But there are other questions, namely: Is he over the top? What does the lugging signify? This is a colt who can lug his way from one end of the track to the other. And in his last start, while he did not lug badly, he did get out a little bit, and he seemed to do some of it against a right-hand whip, which adds to our concerns. We can handle all of these negatives if we’re getting price, but 4-1 falls a little short of what we’d need to play him to win.

Defondo (12-1): Too slow, and just lost an entry-level allowance despite receiving a friendly trip.

Fusaichi Flame (20-1): Had to labor too hard to work his way up to a lifetime top of 81. Not interested.

A Day in Paradise (12-1): Too slow. But since he’s trained by Larry Jones, one is permitted to embrace the hope that a huge jump will come out of nowhere.

War Story (4-1):

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Lightly raced colt is 2 for 4 lifetime and may have more upside than the morning line favorite. Speed figures are improving handsomely. Trainer gets a perfect 100 rating at this racetrack. Rider Joe Talamo returns to his old stomping grounds. War Story is a poor gate horse. He has had self-caused trouble at the gate in three of his four races. This can be read in multiple ways. Minor gate problems have a way of becoming bigger gate problems, but they also have a way of becoming no gate problem. And so far in his career, this gelding has done just fine for himself despite the gate problem. Indeed, he came up just a length short against International Star in his last start, earning a speed figure of 89. War Story is our selection.

Keen Ice (5-1): No match for International Star in the Risen Star. The Pace Projector shows him a distant last early. Best chance is probably a heated speed duel, but even if he gets it, there are plenty of other horses in here who will benefit too. We don’t really like him at 5-1 ML.

St. Joe Bay (10-1): Was pestered early by a no-hope longshot in the Risen Star or he almost certainly would have hit the trifecta or even the exacta. Tough break. But that doesn’t mean he is owed any luck today. Figures to be contending with Mr. Z right out of the gate. No fun. Has a lifetime top speed figure of 90 and has never won a race above the maiden claiming level. Goes for a good trainer, Pete Miller, who loses a lot of stakes races (52 rating in 3YO stakes) because he believes that a prerequisite for winning big races is entering them.

International Star (3-1): Likely favorite is 4 for 8 lifetime. Enters off wins in Grade 3 LeComte and Grade 2 Risen Star. His speed figures have been improving, and his last number (92) ties for best last-out speed figure in the field. Have a hard time thinking the extra half-furlong will bother him in the least. Has a pleasing running style and a nice turn of foot. Trainer Michael Maker gets a 95 rating at this racetrack, a 97 rating with this spacing, and a 93 rating with this rider. There are a lot of positives here, and we would not quarrel with anyone for thinking this colt the most like winner of this race.

The play:

Win bet on War Story.

Use War Story and a little bit of Stanford in multi-race bets and protect under International Star in vertical exotics (exactas, trifectas, and superfectas).

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Dubai World Cup PPs are now available

Get started on the card by clicking here.

 

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Saturday Stakes Preview: A mysterious 8/1 shot in The New Orleans Handicap at The Fair Grounds

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>Go to the PPs for the New Orleans Handicap/ Post Time: 4:54 PM CDT

The Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap has a field of 9 horses going a mile and 1/8 on the dirt. It goes as race 10 on the card. The field is led by Moreno, who is the highweight and 9-5 on the morning line in his first start since he finished a distant second to Shared Belief in the Santa Anita Handicap.

According to our Pace Projector, the New Orleans Handicap will be run at a fast pace, and the early leader will be Mystery Train, followed closely by Go Go Rocket and Moreno.

From a betting perspective, our favorite horse in the New Orleans Handicap is One King’s Man, but something gives us pause. A trainer with this kind of record? Ratings of 98, 99, and 100 in all the categories? A winning percentage that makes it look as if he found a track that cards nothing but match races? We would like to see a couple of decent graded stakes performances from his horses before endorsing one in a Grade 2 on a big day. Graded stakes can be a little bit different, and, no matter how talented the trainer is, no matter how brilliantly he might handle a barn full of inexpensive horses, you don’t know until you know.

We wouldn’t need to see a lot of decent graded stakes performances. We’d even be content with what Prince once called “something close to nothing.” But right now we have nothing. And that gives us pause.

Screen Shot 2015-03-27 at 4.34.04 PM

But we are going with One King’s Man anyway. He is 8-1 on the ML. The Pace Projector shows him getting a set-up that should flatter his closing style. His last two efforts were highly impressive visually. In his most recent start, against Louisiana-breds, he got hammered at the start, knocked sideways, and it goes unmentioned in the result chart. He has TimeformUS Speed Figures that fit with the recent figures of all of these except Moreno, who plays a different game at his best.

Moreno’s best effort makes any anti-Moreno analysis moot. But we see Moreno as a horse who can go in either direction second off the layoff. His odds will be short, and our feeling is that if he goes backwards even a little bit today, this, combined with an unpleasant pace scenario, might be enough to keep him out of the winner’s circle.

At 12-1 on the ML, and off an impressive effort that received a speed figure of 102, Afford is another horse we would want in our play.

And Red Rifle, the aptly named, tough-as-nails gelding who fires shot after shot after shot and wins on grass and wins on dirt and wins on synthetic and wins at 7F and 8.5F and 9F and 10F and 12F and has amassed $425,000 dollars in 14 starts, will be going in our play too.

The play:

Win bet on One King’s Man.

Use One King’s Man and, to a lesser degree, Afford in multi-race exotics.

Add Red Rifle in verticals and protect under Moreno.
 

 

 

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Saturday Stakes Preview: Fair Grounds’ G2 Mervin H. Muniz Jr. Handicap

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>Go to the PPs for the Mervin H. Muniz Jr. Handicap/ Post Time: 3:55 PM CDT

The Grade 2 Mervin H. Muniz Jr. Handicap goes as race 8 on the Saturday Fair Grounds card and will be run at “about” a mile and 1/8 on the grass.

The favorite on the morning line is Divine Oath, who exits a fifth-place finish in a top-loaded Gulfstream Park race that was a testament to the fact that all Grade 2s are not created equal.

According to our Pace Projector, this race will favor horses who race on or near the early lead, and the Grade 3 winner Coalport will be on a clear early lead. Chocolate Ride is projected to be alone in second place, receiving the so-called “watchdog” trip that some handicappers abhor and others mind not a bit. Paroled is shown in third place early. The others fall in line trotter-style behind him, and if Pace Projector is correct in its projection of a speed-friendly pace, these other horses will be at a disadvantage.

Our play in the Mervin H. Muniz will be built around Paroled, who has much going against him but enough in his favor for us to take a shot if his 6-1 morning line odds hold up or, better yet, drift higher.

Paroled is a six-year-old gelding who has never run in a stakes race, let alone a Grade 2. His lifetime top grass speed figure of 104 is no match for his opponents’ best numbers. He has lost too many claiming races for us to count. He is at an age where many horses are declining. We expect to get his morning line odds and more.

Screen Shot 2015-03-27 at 3.18.18 PM
 

 

 

 

 

 

In his favor we number the following factors: Pace Projector predicts a slow pace for this, and, given his post position and habitual placement in shorter races, it is not at all hard to imagine Paroled locked up (so to speak) on the rail, covered up and saving ground behind the two speed horses. This kind of “suck along” trip on the grass is often conducive to horses outrunning their odds. In addition, despite his having just run at a race rating level that is well below today’s preliminary race rating of 108, we just plain like the way he won last time. To us he looked every bit the part of a horse who is right now as sharp as he can get. He is stepped up optimistically into a Grade 2 today. Grass is a less demanding surface than dirt–more likely to tolerate powerful back-to-back efforts. The sharpness he just showed on the racetrack, combined with the optimism his connections are showing with this choice of spots, has us thinking there is a decent chance that Paroled will outrun his apparent class limitations today.

As far as the rest of this field is concerned: We are a little negative on Coalport, who we feel had little behind him as he earned a speed figure of 108 while wiring a Grade 3 field in Texas. We do not like Highball or Potomac River at all. We see Chocolate Ride and (to a lesser extent) Slumber as contenders. We feel that Divine Oath is the most likely winner, but we see him as likely to be a slight underlay in light of the likely pace.

The play:

Win bet on Paroled. Get Paroled underneath in exactas and trifectas.

 

 

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