The TimeformUS Pace Projector previously had three options for describing the likely early pace of a race: ‘Fast Pace’, ‘Favors Horses On/Near the Early Lead’, and choosing not to display any label, which is the most common occurrence. All of these options are derived from an algorithm that considers horses’ running styles, their Adjusted Fractions, and other factors. We’ve just added a new option for describing the early pace: ‘No Speed’.
We have chosen to use this new designation for races that don’t have any horses with a running style of ‘Leader’, ‘Speed’, or ‘Tracker’. While early speed is almost always an advantage to some extent, studies of our Pace Projector have shown that the advantage is noticeably less when none of the horses has shown a fondness for running on or near the lead. Further, in the ‘No Speed’ scenario, it is more difficult to forecast which horses will lead and be close to the pace. These races tend to be more tactical and the jockeys’ decisions can have a significant, unpredictable influence.
As a horseplayer, what does it mean when you see the ‘No Speed’ label?
The ‘No Speed’ flag will alert you to the fact that speed might not be the advantage that the visual image paints in the Pace Projector, and that the predicted early running order is less reliable.
Further, in races with the ‘Favors Horses On/Near the Early Lead’ flag we award extra credit to horses displayed near the front of the Pace Projector when determining the TimeformUS Power Picks and the number of ‘Check Marks’ each horse is assigned. That influence is algorithmically downplayed when this new label is displayed.
>>How the TimeformUS Pace Projector Works
Craig, What is the general adjustment from a TimeForm figure for Euro Breeders Cup entrants to a Beyer figure? I was thinking 13-15 numerical points.
can we then handicap prior races?201 Belmont would be an interesting race to review