She’s Not Bluffing (#8) is likely to go off as the favorite in this spot. A pair of turf experiments didn’t work out, but now she gets back on her preferred surface. She was facing tougher maiden special weight fields in her first two starts and was hardly disgraced on either occasion. The drop in for a $25,000 tag is somewhat of a concern, but if she brings her maiden special weight form to this cheaper race, she’s going to be awfully tough to beat.
Some may view Too Many Tales (#7) as her main rival. This filly returns from a 2 1/2-month layoff after running twice within a week at Aqueduct in March. She was steadily improving over the winter, picking up checks in 4 of her 5 starts despite never running a particularly fast speed figure. She fits well at this level but may need to improve to beat a few of these. She does, however, get a major rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz for the return.
I’m using both, but I want to take a shot with PEGGY SUE (#1), who figures to be a slightly better price. This filly has obviously improved in recent starts, and her upward trajectory is noteworthy in a race where others may be going off form. She faded in the late stages and was passed by today’s rival Crick last time out, but that filly was riding the rail whereas Peggy sue was 3 to 4 wide throughout on a day that featured a strong rail bias. That last effort is a lot better than it seems, and the 87 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned for that performance is already higher than the best numbers posted by the favorite. Peggy Sue had hinted that she might be improving in her start prior to that, and if she takes another small step forward here, she’s going to be awfully tough to beat.
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,7,8
Trifecta: 1,8 with 1,8 with 3,4,5,7