Saratoga | Race 10 | Post Time 6:13 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

#7 Miss Domina is the obvious dropdown in this race, but I’m reluctant to just default to her at a short price. She ran her best race on the dirt winning up here last summer. She did subsequently put in a good effort to be third on grass at the allowance level, but her form hasn’t been as strong since then. She tried an ambitious spot off the layoff last time and now is placed more realistically at this starter allowance level. She’s the one to beat, but I was more interested in some others. 

I think #1 Stuck On Kitten could run better this time after just looking like she might have needed a race coming off the layoff at Belmont. Her form prior to that had been strong, but she just seemed to get a little outrun in the early stages of that July 8 event and was unable to recover. They both make sense, but my top pick is another horse from that July 8 affair. 

#4 FREEDOMOFTHEPRESS put in a huge effort that day, as she was the one pressing that incredibly fast early pace. She took over with an eighth of a mile to go, but was unable to hold off the closers in a race that fell apart late. She strikes me as one that should be suited by this slight turnback in distance. She has tactical speed, but doesn’t need to be in front, so I’m expecting her to sit a stalking trip. That 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure from last time arguably makes her the one to beat, and she won’t be favored.

THE PLAY

WIN: #4 Freedomofthepress, at 2-1 or greater

USE: 1