Saratoga | Race 5 | Post Time 3:21 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

My primary opinion in this allowance marathon is that I want to play against #1 Shad Nation, who could go favored by default, going out for Christophe Clement with Irad Ortiz riding. Her recent form is not particularly compelling, and I don’t see any evidence that she’s crying out for more ground. Horses like #10 Hail To and #5 Rheaume make some sense after running well over a marathon distance at Belmont. However, I was more interested in some alternatives. 

My top pick is #8 MY SWEET STORY. This grey filly has slowly but surely been coming along. She achieved her maiden victory with a late rush from last-to-first at Colonial last summer, but still seemed like a work in progress. She returned from a lengthy layoff recently with a pair of improved efforts to kick off her 4-year-old campaign. Flown, the winner of her last, is a talented multiple stakes-placed performer. This stretch-out in distance shouldn’t be an issue for her, since she’s a full-sister to My Afleet, who won going this distance and was second in the 1 5/8 miles John’s Call over this course. 

The other runner I want to use is #7 Good Measure. She’s only made one turf start during her career, coming last fall at Laurel. She actually ran better than the result might indicate that day, as she was never in a comfortable spot to rally, altering course in traffic while attempting to make up ground. Since then she’s shown some improvement on dirt, and has responded well to elongated distances in her last couple of starts. Clearly the stamina is there, and fondness for turf shouldn’t be an issue, as she’s a half-sister to two grass winners.

THE PLAY

WIN: #8 My Sweet Story, at 7-2 or greater

UPGRADE: #7 Good Measure, at 7-1 or greater