Aqueduct | Race 1 | Post Time 11:55 a.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up

Likely favorite Check Engine Light (#1A) showed some promise in her career debut last summer at Saratoga, closing belatedly for fifth behind the highly-touted Prank. She returned from the layoff in December and just didn’t seem comfortable racing inside of horses on the far turn, appearing to get discouraged after getting put in tight quarters in the stretch. That might not be an issue on the stretch-out, but I am a little concerned that race she’s exiting might not be that strong. The winner and runner-up returned to regress in their subsequent starts by 10 and 33 TimeformUS Speed Figure points, respectively. She’s a contender, but perhaps not the most appealing option at a short price. 

Balpool (#5) is a horse that I was interested in when she was entered to make her second start sprinting back on January 15, but she was a vet scratch that day. I’m a little concerned about the stretch-out to a mile as she now targets this one-mile maiden event instead. Her debut was better than the result indicates, as she got off to a rough start, breaking slowly and getting bumped. She actually did well to make some progress through the lane after racing a bit greenly, since that race didn’t feature much pace. Rob Atras doesn’t have the best statistics with second time starters, so I’m inclined to explore other options. 

My top pick is TRYINMYHEARTOUT (#3). She actually took some money on debut, going off at 7-2 in a race that featured plenty of interesting first time starters. She maintained contact with the leaders on the backstretch, but couldn’t keep up on the turn, dropping out of contention by the quarter pole. However, she didn’t completely throw in the towel, and was staying on well at the end with big, steady strides. I get the impression that added distance is really going to be this filly’s friend. The dam won going a mile and is a 3/4-sister to G1 Santa Anita Derby winner Honor A. P. Additionally, her second dam Hollywood Story was a multiple G1-winning dirt router. She gets a rider upgrade and I’m expecting a much better effort.

THE PLAY

WIN: #3 Tryinmyheartout, at 9-5 or greater