Aqueduct | Race 9 | Post Time 4:16 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up

This N1X allowance affair is easily the most wide open race on the card. The Pace Projector is unsurprisingly predicting a fast pace, as there is plenty of early speed signed on. The best of the speed types may be Ruvies in Time (#1). This 7-time winner has more victories at Aqueduct (5) than most horses in this field have won in their entire careers. She’s had some ups and downs over the past few seasons, but she does appear to be in one of her good runs right now. She did well to hold on for second at a big price last time in what was surely a tougher race for this level. The biggest drawback today is the inside post position, since all the other speed is drawn outside of her. 

One of the primary enigmas in this field is Hot Fudge (#11), who returns from a lengthy layoff for Linda Rice. There’s obviously talent here, but this filly has many questions to answer. She did handle dirt pretty well when she broke her maiden in her second start as a 2-year-old, though she benefited from a rail-skimming trip on a day when the inside path was beneficial. Rice is 4 for 22 (18%, $1.74 ROI) off 300+ day layoffs over 5 years. This filly’s style fits this race, though I do have some questions about whether she’s really a dirt horse, as I’ve been more impressed with her turf races. 

A filly with a similar profile is Champagne Poetry (#3). There was some buzz about her when she launched her career as a 2-year-old in late 2021, and she did run the two best races of her career on dirt during that campaign last winter. The connections seemingly made a mistake when experimenting on synth and turf in her last couple of starts, but she’s back in the right kind of spot and seems to be working well for her return. Yet I think this race looks ripe to fall apart, so I want a late runner. 

My top pick is CAPTAINSDAUGHTER (#10). She may not be the most naturally talented runner in this field, but her running style appears to fit this race perfectly. She looked like she might be making the winning move using those tactics last time, but she stalled at the eighth pole going 7 furlongs. She has generally done better at this shorter 6-furlong distance, especially when there is ample speed signed on. She’s a filly who once struggled to win races, but she’s been in career form lately, and usually goes off at a fair price.

THE PLAY

WIN: #10 Captainsdaughter, at 4-1 or greater

USE: 1,3,11