This Adirondack features a few fillies with prior positive stakes experience, including the beaten Schuylerville favorite Mainstay (#8). This filly inherited the favorite’s role that day when Happy Soul was scratched and she arguably was the best horse, but her race was basically over when she left the starting gate a step slowly. She is a contender once again, but she would likely have to take a step forward to beat the two fillies exiting Churchill’s Debutante.
Ontheonesandtwos (#2) could go favored in this race on the basis of her second-place finish last time out. This imposing daughter of Jimmy Creed was visually impressive winning her debut before falling just short to the talented Behave Virginia in the Debutante. She got a wide trip that day, but she arguably should have had more of a potent finish considering the strong early pace.
I actually prefer WICKED HALO (#7) out of the Debutante. This filly was forced to be used very aggressively away from the gate given her rail draw. The early pace of that race was very fast, and she did well to put away the other speeds and battle on for third, 12 lengths ahead of the rest of the field. She’s been a front-runner in both starts to date, but I think that running style has been dictated by her drawing the inside post each time. This time she’s got a better draw towards the outside, and I think she can turn the tables on Ontheonesandtwos.
The one other horse who interests me at a bigger price is Shesawildjoker (#4). This New York-bred filly has to step up in class, but she ran very well in her debut at Belmont. She was away a little awkward, but traveled well thereafter and gamely wore down the leader. She was subsequently flattered when runner-up November Rein returned to win up here impressively.
Exacta Box: 4,7
Trifecta: 7 with 2,4 with 2,4,6,8,9