While this Maddie May is a New York-bred stakes event, the race is not short on expensive fillies and regal pedigrees. (Oddly enough, Shanes Pretty Lady is the only horse among this crew who is by a stallion standing in New York.)
Brattle House (#8) could go favored here as she makes the second start of her career. This $775k daughter of Malibu Moon absolutely towered over her foes in her November debut. She is an imposing physical presence, and she just dominated that race on the front end. However, the speed figure wasn’t particularly fast and the waters get much deeper for this second start of her career. She also has to contend with a layoff, as she spent the last few months training in Florida. I’m using her, but I’m reticent to lean on her at a short price. Furthermore, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, with stretching-out sprinters Irish Constitution and Secret Love likely to show speed inside of her.
I want to go with horses who are proven at route distances. One of those is Frost Me (#2), who comes off a solid allowance victory at this trip. She’s versatile enough to stalk the pace and seems to be improving with each start. Yet I’m most intrigued by the horse who finished just behind her last time.
SHANES PRETTY LADY (#5) was hindered by a tepid early pace when she lost to Frost Me, and then she was badly compromised by her trip last time on Jan. 31. That was a day when the rail was utterly dead at Aqueduct, as horse after horse who wandered down to the inside met their doomed fate. Shanes Pretty lady, to her credit, actually finished better than most racing on the rail, as she closed for third, albeit flattening out late. I think she’s better than her recent form indicates, and it would appear that added distance is helping this daughter of Bellamy Road. As long as some pace develops up front, I expect her to come charging late at a square price.
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,7,8
Trifecta: 5 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,7,8