Dovima (#3) is a deserving favorite as she catches a pretty weak maiden special weight field. This filly has clearly had her chances, having finished second by a half-length or less in three of her four career starts. However, she’s earning speed figures that are superior to those of her rivals, and she’s exiting a live race at Keeneland, out of which a number of horses have improved subsequently. Among those with prior dirt experience I think she’s a total standout. However, there are some wild cards in this race who are either making their debuts or trying this surface for the first time.
One of those is ALEMIA (#6), who will be switching to dirt after making two starts on turf. While her pedigree looks turf-oriented at first glance, her best half-sibling Stays in Vegas, a graded stakes-quality turf horse, could also handle the dirt, winning a minor stakes on that surface. Furthemore, Alemia is by Congrats, whereas her turf-meant siblings have been by more conventional turf sires. This chestnut filly has a lot of size to her, and seems like one that should physically be strong enough to handle this Aqueduct main track. Furthermore, Christophe Clement is a somewhat surprising 6 for 15 (40%, $4.07 ROI) with maidens going from turf to dirt at Aqueduct over the past 5 years. She has the speed to work out the right trip in a paceless race, and I expect a solid effort out of her.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,5
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with 2,4,5,8