Following the scratch of morning line favorite Shimmering Moon, Leah’s Dream (#3) is likely to be the clear public choice on the basis of her runner-up finish at this same class level last time. Shimmering Moon edged out her rival for the victory that day under a perfect ground-saving ride from Jose Lezcano, but Leah’s Dream did not surrender without a fight. Just like last time, the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-running Leah’s Dream. If she gets loose on the lead and slows down the pace, she figures to be difficult to catch.
My top pick is the likely second choice FAIR REGIS (#5). She has a similar profile to that of Shimmering Moon before that mare won the March 8 race at this level. Both exit a Feb. 9 affair in which they were badly compromised by wide trips over a track that featured a strong rail bias. Shimmering Moon rebounded to her typical strong efforts when she got to race over a fair racetrack last time, and I would expect Fair Regis to show the same improvement this time.
Fair Regis displayed good form prior to her disappointing February effort, and actually finished ahead of Shimmering Moon when they met in early December. I like the rider switch to Kendrick Carmouche, who figures to have this versatile mare placed relatively close to the pace. If she shows up, I believe she has an excellent chance to win, and she projects to offer far better value than the favorite.
Aside from favored Leah’s Dream, the only other horse I would consider elevating to an exacta position underneath my top choice is Starlite Mission (#2). She was earning speed figures that would make her competitive against this field as recently as December, and she may be able to return to form off the claim by Dave Cannizzo.
Exacta: 5 with 2,3
Trifecta: 5 with 3 with ALL