Note: The KY Derby Pace Projector will be updated with additions and defections to the Derby field between now and post time on Derby Day, and it will also be updated immediately follow the Post Position draw for the Derby.
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Here’s a look at the Derby Pace Projector as of April 17th:
- The Pace Projector typically considers Post Position, but for this advance version, horses are assigned program numbers based on the Derby qualifying point standings:
#2 Classic Empire
#5 Irish War Cry
#6 Thunder Snow
#7 Always Dreaming
#9 Practical Joke
#10 J Boys Echo
#11 State of Honor
#12 Conquest Mo Money
#16 Fast and Accurate
#18 Battle of Midway
#20 Battalion Runner
Not shown in the Projector as of April 17th: Cloud Computing, Untrapped, Royal Mo, and Local Hero. Royal Mo and Local Hero would be strongly in the mix early if they were to move into the Derby field.
- The Pace Projector algorithm projects the position of the horses ½ mile into the Derby.
- The algorithm weighs each entrant’s TimeformUS Pace Figures, historic running styles, and field size dynamics. It also typically weighs for the effect of blinkers and maturity. >Learn more about how the Pace Projector works
- Note the prominent role of the entrants’ TimeformUS Pace Figures; possible Derby post-time favorite Always Dreaming has never run Pace Figures akin to what he would likely face in the Derby.
- Because of the weighting for field size, the Projector is likely to predict a fast pace for most Kentucky Derbies, given the race’s unusually expansive field size.
For context, here’s a view of the field at 1/2 mile in to the 2016 Derby: