Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:44 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
The Plenty of Grace has drawn a compact but fascinating field of seven fillies and mares. The deserving favorite is My Impression (#7), who really came to hand in the second half of her 3-year-old season, winning a trio of stakes races, including a victory over this turf course. Her best performances make her the horse to beat, but you have to be somewhat concerned about her dull return at Tampa Bay Downs. Perhaps she just needed the race, but it does open up other options here.
One mare whom many will gravitate toward is Bar of Gold (#2). Her connections have teased a potential turf start for quite some time, and with good reason. She has a ton of grass breeding on the dam’s side of her pedigree, and her affinity for sloppy tracks would lead some to believe that she’s a cinch to handle the turf. If I thought she was going to be an attractive price, I wouldn’t hesitate to jump on the bandwagon given all of the evidence, but I think she’s going to prove to be too popular an alternative to the favorite.
Therefore, I’m landing on my good old friend MY SWEET GIRL (#4). The tail end of her 2016 campaign didn’t quite go according to plan, but some less-than-ideal circumstances may have contributed to that. Her return race at Gulfstream is not nearly as alarming as it seems when you watch the replay. She had a nightmare of a trip, getting squeezed back early before racing extremely wide thereafter. She figures to move forward off that effort for Barclay Tagg.
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,7
Trifecta: 4,7 with 4,7 with 2,3,5,6