Shipwrecked (#4, 6-1) returned from a layoff for his 3yo debut back on March 1st, and but for drifting out late after making all the pace that day, he would no longer be eligible for this race. He was justly disqualified that day, but he was also going to win regardless of his antics in the stretch. Since that race, his form has seemingly declined, but we think we can make some excuses for him, and will give him one more chance to break his maiden today.
In his first start after being disqualified, Shipwrecked made the pace along a dead rail all the way to the top of the stretch, and he was wrapped up on after giving way at that point, which led to an exaggerated margin of defeat. Most recently, he switched to turf, and it is that race which we think is much better than it appears to be on paper, and that is the reason we are looking to bet him today. In that race, Shipwrecked, a horse with plenty of speed who had been on the early lead in each of his three previous starts, was badly impeded at the break and had to take up hard, winding up last of nine early in a race where the 1-2 finishers were that way around the track. Despite that trouble, and being in that unfamiliar position, Shipwrecked still managed to launch a game wide run through the turn (between calls, so it doesn’t appear in the running line) before understandably tiring late.
He drops in class here for the first time, and assuming a clean break today, he projects to be right up close to the pace again in this field. It also may be to his benefit that the two ML favorites in the race, The Mooche (#2, 5-2) and Giant Jo (#10, 2-1), are both returning from layoffs in this spot, with neither of them having started yet in 2014.
Win bet on Shipwrecked at 5/1 or better.
Doubles from Shipwrecked to numbers 1 and 3 in the 3rd race.