>Belmont / October 23 / Race 3 / 1:52 EDT

Summer House debuted in a tough spot last month for a trainer who tends not to ask very much of his 2yos early on. Not only were 5 of her 8 rivals in that spot experienced runners, but the eventual winner of the race, Jacaranda, was a highly touted half-sister to the Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Constitution, and she ran to her reputation.

For her part, Summer House took quite a bit of tote action for a Bill Mott-trained first-time starter, going off at 4/1. She then flashed good speed to make a fast early pace (note the pace figures/fractions shaded in red to the first call) before being challenged by Jacaranda and backing away. We will note here that her margin of defeat is a bit exaggerated, as her rider eased up once Summer House was beaten and allowed her to run through the stretch on her own power.

With that speed-and-fade debut run behind her, we’ll expect Summer House to show something more today. Not only does she add lasix for her second start, but her trainer is among the best in the game with horses stretching out in distance (84 rating). While there isn’t enough data to make a Pace Projector for these lightly raced horses (4 of the 8 runners are first-time starters), considering the early show of speed from Summer House in her debut, it would certainly be no surprise to see her right up close to, if not on, the lead today. The wet track she will encounter is an unknown (Belmont is sloppy and sealed after much rain the last two days), but with a Breeding Rating of 95 for wet dirt, she can be expected to handle it.