Pace Figures Added to TimeformUS Past Performances

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Pace figures are now available as part of TimeformUS past performances. Based on the fractional times run by each horse at each point of call in a race, TimeformUS Pace Figures give you a clear sense of the pace scenarios that a horse has faced in prior races.

We’ve been telling you for a while now that TimeformUS Speed Figures are created by combining a horse’s final-time figure, pace figures, and running style into one number. With the addition of pace figures, you can see the role that pace played in the race and any effect it had on the speed figure.

How To Use TimeformUS Pace Figures
From the past performances, click this section of any running line:

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This will bring up your options for what you can display in this section.

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Select Pace Figures, and choose to display the pace figures for ‘This Horse,’ or the ‘Leader.’

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TimeformUS Pace Figures will now appear in the running lines.

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Using TimeformUS Pace Figures
TimeformUS Chief Figure Maker Craig Milkowski recently wrote a blog post about the importance of pace, and how understanding the pace of a horse’s previous races will make you think twice before adding or tossing him from your tickets. We also have a “Today in Racing” blog post from this morning which addresses this new feature.

Let’s take a look at a recent race with and without TimeformUS Pace Figures displayed. In Ullapool’s race three back, she set a blistering pace before fading and finishing ninth.

Here’s that running line showing her official fractions:

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You’ll notice they’re red, which means this race had particularly fast fractions considering the final time of the race. Now, let’s take a look at her pace figures:

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In this seven furlong race, Ullapool’s pace figure for the opening quarter mile was a staggering 167. She earned a 135 for a half-mile and a 101 for six furlongs. The 77 you see beneath her finish position is her final-time figure (keeping in mind her final time was 1:24.11). The 102 is her speed figure for the race. When we say we incorporate pace into our speed figures, the difference between the 77 and the 102 is exactly what we’re talking about.

Keep in mind that this is an extreme example. You won’t often see a 25-point change from a horse’s final-time figure to its speed figure. Let’s take a look at the full chart for this race, and note the speed figure adjustments for pace applied to each horse:

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The horses closest to the lead, such as Ullapool, got a large boost to their speed figure because of the pace they dealt with, while Book Review, who was 13-15 lengths back early, got a final-time figure of 86 and a matching speed figure. Book Review eventually closed into that collapsing pace, picked off a few horses along the way, and finished seventh. Her final time was .68-seconds faster than Ullapool’s, but her speed figure was an 86 (compared to Ullapool’s 102).

Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What scale are TimeformUS Pace Figures on?
A: They’re on the same scale as TimeformUS Speed Figures, which top out in the high 140s. You see a 167 pace figure in the above example because horses that don’t ration their energy well can surpass these limits for portions of the race. They just cannot maintain it for the entire distance.

More Pace Figure Related Posts

The Dilemma of the Slow-Paced Race
Pace Figures and the Cash Call Futurity: A Deeper Look
Run-Up and Its Effect on Final Time

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19 Responses to Pace Figures Added to TimeformUS Past Performances

  1. David G says:

    Great addition to the PP’s, guys. Thanks. In fact, you folks have added more features to your product in the past couple of months than the PP’s that have been around since 1894 has in their last 20 years.

    Two Questions:

    In some PP Lines, I would notice only one colored coded call to be in blue or in red. Citing Ullapool’s PP above as an example, if only the 44.09 half mile time or the 135 pace figure were shaded in red while the other calls were in their respective normal black color, would that indicate that the first half mile of the race was quick or just the second quarter (increment) was fast?

    Any astute observer would have noticed Aqueduct has been experiencing a strong tail wind on the majority of their cards in late November. This created ultra-quick opening fractions that had horses crawling home in very slow final times. (i.e first quarter :22.2 final time 1:13.3). Aqueduct and other tracks that are situated near water are notorious for a large fluctuation in fractional times when a strong tail/head wind is present.
    Does Timeform US incorporate these variances into crafting their pace figures?

    Thanks again guys!

    Like

  2. Craig Milkowski says:

    I will have to check on the first, the color coding. There should be consistency between the fractions, adjusted fractions, and pace figures.

    As for the second part, I absolutely take the tail winds into account. We use different variants for each segment of the race, so if all the fractions are consistently fast that is built into the variant. If there is a single race with figures that look out of line, I check both the timing of the race and the weather at the time to see if it varied sharply from other races run before and after.

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    • David G. says:

      Thanks for responding Craig,

      Just so we’re on the same page with regards to the first question, we can refer to one of the running lines out of one of the entries from today’s free PP’s, it’s the 5th race from Aqueduct, the 1 horse, Hardrocker. If you scroll down to his 14th race back from July 22nd, 2012 at Saratoga, you will see the second call/fraction/pace figure to be the only one in red.

      Does that mean the first full half mile of the race was run above average or just the second quarter of the race (between the first and second fractions)?

      Thanks again,

      David

      Like

      • Craig Milkowski says:

        The highlighting of fractions is inclusive…so if the 1/2 mile is highlighted, it is for the entire half mile, not the 1/4 to 1/2. As an FYI, we don’t do figures for these, but you can easily determine them. If the 1/4 is run in 90, and the half is run in 100, the 1/4 to 1/2 would just be 100*2 – 90 for a 110. If it is the 1/2 to 3/4, same ratings, it would be 3*100 – 90*2 = 120.

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      • Greg Gentzler says:

        Craig Milkowski says that you can determine the incremental splits, in numerical form, by using the pace figures for the race. His example was if the 1/4 is run in 90 and the 1/2 is run in 100, the 1/4 to half would be 100*2-90 for a 110. I understand that completely, but then he says, if it is the 1/2 to 3/4 with the same 90 and 100, it would be 100*3-90*2 for a 120. Why the different multiplication? And what if the 3/4 were 85 and the 8.5 was 110? What would the multiplication be then?

        Like

  3. David Guberman says:

    Now we’re talking advanced pace handicapping!

    Like

  4. Sangu says:

    Nice exchange of info which I saw only today. I would like to know if we have the option to see the pace figures on the Free PP’s that we see for 2 races everyday. If yes, how do I do it?

    Thanks a lot.

    Sangu

    Like

    • Sangu says:

      Sorry. I got the info. One thing I missed in my previous mail was – “because of the high pace figures is the horse good for sprint only?”

      Like

  5. jay says:

    how many points equal a length? does it change for each distance? how many points in the Pace numbers ( the number that in red , blue and black) equal a length?

    Like

    • TimeformUS says:

      Hi Jay,

      The approximate points per length are variable based on distance. For example, on Dirt at 6 furlongs ~2.4 pts equals 1 length, at 8f ~1.8 pts equals 1 length and at 10f ~1.3 pts equals one length. The point values are slightly higher for 1 length on turf and synthetic tracks.

      Like

  6. jay says:

    Thank You. I appreciate your time

    Like

  7. David says:

    One suggestion I would like to see added. The preview page has the “Spotlight” figure. A summary page of some sort would be extremely helpful- at least to me. You have created these “early” and “late” ratings, so having them ranked on a summary would speed up things. If your pace projector looks like a Fast pace meltdown coming, I’d love to start off knowing which horses have the best late ratings without having to scroll through a 10 horse field. Same for the slow early race shape.

    Like

  8. marc@tfus says:

    We’re going to add early and late ratings to some key locations to make them more easily accessible. It’s in the queue, though live odds are next up.

    Like

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  11. Greg Gentzler says:

    Craig Milkowski says that you can determine the incremental splits, in numerical form, by using the pace figures for the race. His example was if the 1/4 is run in 90 and the 1/2 is run in 100, the 1/4 to half would be 100*2-90 for a 110. I understand that completely, but then he says, if it is the 1/2 to 3/4 with the same 90 and 100, it would be 100*3-90*2 for a 120. Why the different multiplication? And what if the 3/4 were 85 and the 8.5 was 110? What would the multiplication be then?

    Like

    • Craig Milkowski says:

      It has to do with the ratio of the fractions to each other. It is harder to move a figure the farther into the race you go since the pace figures are inclusive.

      This formula will calculate any incremental pace figure if you know the inclusive pace figures:

      (PaceFigure2 x Distance of PaceFigure2 – PaceFigure1 x Distance of PaceFigure1) /
      (Distance of PaceFigure2 – Distance of PaceFigure1)

      Like

      • Craig Milkowski says:

        Examples:

        4F Pace figure is 100
        6F Pace figure is 90

        4F to 6F figure would be (90 x 6 – 100 x 4) / (6 – 4) = 70

        2F Pace figure is 90
        4F Pace figure is 100

        2F to 4F figure would be (100 x 4 – 90 x 2) / (4 – 2) = 110

        Like

  12. Greg Gentzler says:

    Thanks very much for the response… Excellent product and very well supported.

    Like

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