Today in Racing, Dec 10, 2013

The top TimeformUS speed figure of the weekend went to Star Harbour, who won the Sunshine Stakes, a race restricted to Florida breds, at Gulfstream on Sunday.  Star Harbour earned a figure of 112 in turning back the stretch challenge of Jackson Bend, the G1 winner who now hasn’t won in his last ten starts since earning that honor in the Carter at the Big A in April, 2012.

Taking a look at the running lines of Star Harbour, with pace figures – NOW AVAILABLE! –  displayed, and you see a telling story of this horse.

Screen Shot 2013-12-10 at 12.09.17 PMAs you can see, when Star Harbour is able slow things down in the first quarter – as in his wins on Aug 29, Dec 6, and Oct 8 (two of which feature pace fractions in blue, denoting a particularly slow crawl), he wins.  But when the pace is hot, as it was in the other races shown above, he doesn’t fare quite as well.  Of course, that doesn’t make him much different from most any other horse.  But the pace figures fit squarely into our mission of helping you understand races faster….or, in this case, understanding this horse, and making quick sense of what conditions he needs in order to prevail.

Indeed, if one had looked at the pace figures for Star Harbour (#4) in conjunction with the Preview tab, he/she would have very much liked his chances.

Screen Shot 2013-12-10 at 12.00.48 PMPace Projector suggested that he would get the kind of pace he needs; and he had the best Spotlight Figure in the race.

Now, having said that, it seems that Star Harbour broke the mold in this case.  It was, in fact, the #5 horse, longshot Cat Five Hurricane, who had the lead at the quarter pole, and Star Harbour was forced to run chase brisk early fractions of 22 1/5 and 44 3/5 to get to the front, and still was able to get the win.  The pace figures for the leader in this race were 119-110-110.  So, looks like Star Harbour is in prime form at this time.  His last three races are a 12 length win at Saratoga, a game third despite a very hot pace and a bump and bobble at the start, and Sunday’s race in which he overcame pace conditions that had compromised his chances in the past.  Gotta think that his former owner Peter Vegso is kicking himself for entering him for a tag in that Saratoga race!

In order to see pace figures, click on the running line to get the Fractions Preferences box.

Screen Shot 2013-12-10 at 12.10.25 PMSelect between ‘This Horse’ and ‘Leader.’ Remember, the last figure under the finish position is the raw final time figure, before adjustment for pace.  Referring again to the past performance lines for Star Harbour, and looking at that Aug 29 race, you’ll see that his final time figure was 128.  But, in consideration of the pace shape, with the extremely slow early pace figures that favored his chances considering his running style, it was adjusted to a final TFUS speed figure of 119.

Screen Shot 2013-12-10 at 12.25.28 PMOr you can go back to the fractions, for which you have all the various options, as explained here.  Whatever you choose here will display in the race charts as well.  Would you prefer to be able to see the pace figures AND the fractions?  Something we’re considering, and would love to hear feedback on that, and on anything related to the pace figures (or on anything else).

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3 Responses to Today in Racing, Dec 10, 2013

  1. Yes! I would prefer to be able to see the pace figures AND the fractions. And yes, I gotta think that Star Harbor’s former owner Peter Vegso is kicking himself for entering him for a tag in that Saratoga race! Bill Mott has a keen eye for snapping up claimers from other trainers

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  2. Brohamer/Sartin, Moss, Quirin, BRIS, TFUS…everyone offes some take on a pace profile. I would be interested in your describing how you feel your proprietary pace formulas compare in accuracy and predictability to the others, if such a thing is possible? In the absence of an empirical comparison methodology, a gut reaction would be OK, as long as it isn’t merely an advertisement.

    Also – also – has anyone inside TFUS done a formal or informal statistical study of the accuracy of your novel but interesting Pace Projector graphic? I like what I see and am seriously considering auditioning your product for a month. I currently use BRISnet ultimate PPs; they present an immense amount of relevant and easily comprehended data (esp. Track profiles and running styles). I resent Fomulator for its exorbitant price and the relative paucity of data DRF provides in its classic PPs in comparison to BRIS.

    Last question, which makes three I would kindly ask you to address: is their anything resembling the BRIS track profile page – upper half and lower half – in your product?

    Many thanks,

    Kevin in Fort Lee, VA

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