TimeformUS Derby Prep Analysis: Pace should set up for Montauk Traffic’s late run in Gotham

Aqueduct | Race 10 | Post Time 5:42 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 
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Mischevious Alex (#6) is obviously the horse to beat off his dominant score in the Grade 3 Swale last time. He had to be hard-used to maintain his rail position early that day, yet still punched through into the lead at the top of the stretch and drew off with authority. That 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure is among the highest in this field, and it’s not the first time that he’s posted an impressive number. The only major question for him is one of stamina, since he has shown a great deal of speed and his damside pedigree is more sprint-oriented. That said, he appears to have the talent to get the one-turn mile.

Gotham-Pace-Projector

I’m not as enamored with the other horses coming up from Florida. Untitled’s (#10) connections are asking a lot of him as he makes his third start in a five-week span. He was no match for the promising Gouverneur Morris last time, but he may not have gotten the two turns that day. I like him turning back here, but he still needs to show that he can reproduce the talent he displayed in his debut against top company.

There are a few recent maiden winners in this field, the most intriguing of which may be Sixto (#7). He earned a respectable speed figure in his debut and he’s bred to appreciate all of the added ground he gets.

I’ll use all of these prominently, but my top pick is the Jimmy Winkfield winner MONTAUK TRAFFIC (#8). It’s always noteworthy when Linda Rice takes a shot at a graded stakes, and this horse appears to be rounding into top form. I liked the way he closed determinedly through kickback last time, and he finished like a horse who shouldn’t mind an extra furlong. His pedigree supports that notion, since his dam and siblings had plenty of stamina. If the pace is hot, I believe he’ll be the greatest beneficiary.

THE PLAY

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 4,6,7,10
Trifecta: 6,8 with 6,8 with 2,3,4,7,10
Trifecta: 6,8 with 2,3,4,7,10 with 6,8

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