Santa Anita’s fifth race offers a solid (probable) favorite who will likely not be overbet, due to the simple fact that she is a Northern California shipper, and such horses are always greeted with at least a touch of suspicion by the Southern California betting public.

(8) Chain Lightning debuted on February 15, showing good speed against Maiden Special Weight competition up north. The key here isn’t the name of the class. There are some tracks (e.g. Fairmount Park) where a Maiden Special Weight is worse than a $5,000 maiden claimer at other tracks. But the TimeformUS Race Ratings give an excellent insight into what’s going on when you’re comparing different circuits like this, and here they give a ringing endorsement to Chain Lightning.

The MSW event Chain Lightning competed in earned a 77 race rating, which compares favorably to the races her main competition (Moscato Girl 74, More Stormyweather 72, New Nature 68) has been competing in. More importantly, it’s only her second lifetime start, and she should improve on what was definitely a difficult situation. Battling a head off of the leader and earning an excellent first pace figure of 97, she was never able to get the lead, and she faded (on a slightly closer-biased track) but missed finishing second by only 3 1/2 lengths. TimeformUS research has shown that horses routinely pick up both their early speed and their overall performance in their second starts. That doesn’t mean she’ll necessarily get the lead here, but she might get it, and if not, it means that her natural speed will probably make it much easier to sit just off the pace if she has to. At 5
1/2 furlongs, there’s much less of a shot of her running out of gas no matter what the trip.

(6) Moscato Girl showed a nice new closing dimension last time when shortened up to 5 1/2 furlongs as well. A horse who is usually involved in early tussles and then tires at slightly longer sprint distances, she was able to gain over two lengths in the stretch last time (on a speed-favoring track). Her other race at this distance, her debut, also showed her finishing well, and staying at 5 1/2 is a big plus for this filly. She’s a major threat.

(7) New Nature just seems a notch or two below the top choices. She was well-beaten by Moscato Girl two starts ago, and then in against a legitimately weak field last time (race rating 64), she was a decent second, but was definitely outgamed by the winner. In her defense, the winner was 2-5, and she was five lengths clear of third. Will probably run well, but where’s the value?

(10) Fashionably Rich will be involved early, but she doesn’t seem to have enough speed to clear the inside horses, and she has never shown the ability to outfinish anyone. With her outside post, a long journey awaits.

(2) More Stormyweather is in a similar predicament. She can’t get the lead with these, but she does have a nice bid in her. It looks as if she can’t sustain it 5 1/2 furlongs, though, and there’s nothing more frustrating than a horse who can’t sustain a bid. Might need to shorten all the way up to five furlongs.

Plays:
(8) Chain Lightning to win
Exacta box (6)-(8)