Note: The goal of “On The Contrary” is to point out several horses every day who may be overlooked in the wagering and who can possibly add value to trifectas and superfectas (in high holes and low) and to Pick 3s, Pick 4s, etc. We will not be making “selections” per se in “On the Contrary.” Rather, we’ll encourage readers to give extra consideration to certain horses who may seem a little overmatched at first glance–but who are in fact the type of horses we often build our bets around.

>Santa Anita / February 14th / Go to Racecard

Race 1: #3 Rich in Tradition.

We have long had a soft spot for this mare. She has no talent. She is 1 for 36 lifetime, which speaks to her lack of talent. She is extremely unlikely to win this race. She is 15-1 on the morning line and will almost certainly be the longest shot on the board. Her last race was terrible. She ran nary a step. She has a no-name trainer and a rider who never wins. On the plus side (this won’t take long), she does have the ability, on her best, to slip into the bottom of the trifecta against horses of this caliber, and our strong inclination is to forgive fillies a terrible race in circumstances such as these. We will include her on the bottom of trifectas. (And as an aside, notice how easily this now 1 for 36 mare won back in May, when she found a suitable spot and went off at 5-2. If she does not want to win horse races, she did a mighty fine job of hiding that fact when she blew that field away, expanding her winning margin through the lane.)

Race 2: Pass.

Race 3: #1 Tancred.

He is 15-1 on the ML and very much overmatched for the top spots in here. We mention him only because his last race was not as awful as it looks on paper. He broke from post 1 and spent way too much time on the bad rail, finally getting off it in the stretch. He also checked going into the turn. At huge odds, he has some sort of chance to make the superfecta.

Race 4: Pass.

Race 5: #9 Kingpin Ryno.

Not the best post for a two-turn turf race, but this race features a long run before the first turn. Kingpin Ryno gets back on grass today, and we thought he ran much better than looked on January 15th. He got the dreaded grass “first over” trip on fast fractions and hung in there reasonably well. The crowd may be disinclined to play this rider from this post. One would need a telescope to see Kingpin Ryno’s last good-looking running line. We’ll give him a chance to get involved in exotics at a big price.

Race 6: Pass (unless Awe Gee goes off at 30-1 or higher, in which case we will throw her onto the bottom of superfecta tickets).

Race 7: #12 Avenge.

She is the 3rd choice on the morning line. We believe she will win this race if she takes to turf, and we believe she will take to turf. We think there is talent here, and her last race was gorgeous from a visual standpoint. Good post. Great rider. Great trainer.

Race 8: Our colleague Jason Perlmutter makes the case for #1 Yahilwa here:

Stakes Preview: The Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes at Santa Anita

Race 9: #3 Minks Aprise.

12-1 on the ML. Pace Projector puts her on the early lead in a race favoring speed. Has solid speed figures. Turf breeding is not ideal but not awful either. Chance to get involved at a price.