One horse I know who must be extremely disappointed in the demise of the Keeneland Polytrack is Frac Daddy. Not to mention his owners, and his trainer Ken McPeek. Frac Daddy ($13.20) made it two-for-two on the surface when he took Saturday’s Ben Ali Stakes; and those are two of the easiest wins you’ll ever see. The 4yo son of Scat Daddy earned an outstanding TFUS speed figure of 119. Not only is that the top synthetic number of 2014; but the second and third place finishers also exceeded the previous top of 111 (earned by Dimension for his second place finish in the Commonwealth). Frac Daddy tracked the easy pace set by Red Rifle (25.02 / 49.68), and then effectively put the field away when he took over to the 3/8ths pole with a third quarter of 23.82. He eased home from there, with a final furlong of 12.15 without breaking a sweat.
Taking a look at his running line from our result chart, you can see from his pace figures how he started out slow, and picked up the pace as he went along. His raw final time figure of 113 was upgraded to 119. Even though the early pace was slow, horses in turf or synthetic routes who rate early and finish fast are generally subject to upgrade.
Frac Daddy’s connections had struggled to find this talented horse’s niche, with some questionable decisions along the way which we discussed in this post. And now that he finally found it, the surface is going away for good.
McPeek had a second winner on Saturday’s card that had a similar pattern. Third race winner Bellarmine ($6.20) had also won his prior, and only, race on the Keeneland Poly in easy fashion. And he also replicated that effort with a four length win, earning a fine TFUS speed figure of 104, his career best on any surface.
The big bomb of Saturday at Keeneland was the maiden Hot Hot Heat ($82.40), who took the 6th for trainer Albert Stall, Jr. in his second start. His running line for his debut, on the turf at Fair Grounds, was a dismal one. But can’t help but think that he could have been on my ticket had I only taken the time to delve into his pedigree more fully. Besides the fact that he has a pedigree rating of 91 for synthetic sprints, Hot Hot Heat is a half-brother to Bickersons, who won the Moccasin Stakes on the Hollywood Park Cushion Track at two; and he was third in the Grade 1 Oak Leaf over whatever the hell kind of synthetic track they were running on at Santa Anita at the time. And his half-brothers D’oro Diablo and Gantu, both earners of over $300,000, each had multiple wins over synthetic tracks. So….darn it. Hot Hot Heat (Pulpit) earned a speed figure of 86.
TimeformUS 
We consider finish from the official second call to the finish, so in this case the last three furlongs. Bellarmine did get an upgrade, though not as much. The good thing with our numbers is that if you don’t like the adjustments, the final time figures are available as well. I use them all personally.
We definitely do give horses more credit for closing from further back than we do horses on or near the lead. You can see it in our charts. In the Ben Ali, other horses were upgraded more than the winner. But when a horse wins that easily, it will never have other horses from the race rated higher obviously.
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I completely agree with your first sentence. Where we probably disagree is as to what “finish” means. For me at nine furlongs the key fraction is the final eighth. Seen in that light, Bellarmine out-finished his stablemate. He actually ran some coming to the wire, shading 12 seconds. You did not upgrade his performance, though. Right? You’re looking at some longer portion? That being the case, we have a difference in perspective. I wouldn’t expect Frac Daddy to run as well on dirt, either. Unfortunately, we may not get to see him run again on synthetics soon if ever. I guess there might be a race for him at Woodbine. And maybe the Pac Classic is a medium term goal. It’s there, especially, I wouldn’t expect him to be competitive if Saturday is his high water point going in.
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Let me add one additional thought. Figure makers should be VERY wary about giving additional points for horses running slow. With the lone exception of a closer on grass overcoming a slow pace, the ability to conserve energy early in a race rarely results in a slower final time and the inability to show more early zip is a sign of less talent not more.
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The ability to finish at longer distances is more important on polytrack than on dirt, even for those near the front. On dirt his race would actually be downgraded a bit. But Red Rifle ran the first quarter in only an 86 pace figure. The spread is so big between that and the 113 final time figure that it almost assuredly impacted final time.
I would disagree about him not running fast at any point. He was in front after 6f with a 102 pace figure, and finished with a 113. That means his last three furlongs were run in 135. We adjust for tracks speed and surface.
Can Frac Daddy translate his 119 to dirt? Probably not. But I’m pretty confident the rating he received is a good reflection of how he ran on Saturday.
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Frac Daddy deserves no upgrade. He never ran a particularly fast fraction even after the slow early pace and the way the race unfolded was conducive to a fast final time. Polytrack ain’t dirt
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