California Chrome ($3.40) got a TFUS speed figure of 113 for his facile win in the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday.  That’s a career best number for this Cal-bred son of the rather obscure sire Lucky Pulpit, currently standing for a mere $2500.  I think he figures to be the favorite in the Derby, barring a particularly awful post draw or some really bad workout reports from Mike Welsch leading up to the race.  Though we have the Wood rated as a faster race, California Chrome has the two best Beyers in the prospective Derby field other than Social Inclusion’s allowance race, which is now ancient history.  A horse would have to produce a much-improved figure in the Arkansas Derby, the final dirt prep, in order to affect the speed figure rankings, on either scale.

Here’s the race chart:

California Chrome stalked a pace which was quick, but moderately so for this level.  In fact, his raw final time figure was downgraded by a point.  It was similar in style and substance to his prior two dirt wins. I’m thinking that he has all the makings of a typically vulnerable Kentucky Derby favorite.  Yes, he’s definitely pretty fast.  But I’m not sure what he’s gotten out of these races in terms of prep-aring him for a 20 horse calvary charge in his first race outside of his familiar California climes, and against fresh competition.  He’s had things pretty much his own way during this winning streak.  Of course, that’s largely because he’s been dominant; and one doesn’t want to criticize a horse for being too good!  At least on Saturday, he overcame a bit of a sluggish start, and dueled between horses early on.  Still, he’s likely to face additional traffic obstacles in the Derby, and I think that some of the others will come into the race more battle tested than he, if not quite as fast.  Fast doesn’t always get the job done there.

We don’t have much, other than the figures, by which to go in assessing how the California horses match up against the rest.  Yes, he did defeat Hoppertunity, who won the Rebel; but the Arkansas contingent has not yet proven itself to be all that fast.  Kristo, a distant third in the San Felipe, was a distant 7th in the Wood.  All in all, I’m not convinced and will probably be looking to oppose him at Churchill, assuming he’s the first or second choice in the wagering.

– Dads Caps ($23.60) won the seven furlong Carter at Aqueduct on Saturday in front-running fashion after setting a really slow pace.  Yes, our Pace Projector had this one right.

But I don’t think anybody, be it computer or human, figured he’d get away with a first half mile of 46.56 seconds.  This race left our figure guy Craig Milkowski absolutely flummoxed.  He downgraded his original assessment of the figures, and concluded: Personally I’m drawing a line through that race when I handicap.

Here’s the race chart:

Note the puny early pace figures, and the fact that the raw final time figure of 111 for the winner was downgraded to 100.  And Sahara Sky got the best figure by five points. Nonetheless, this son of Discreet Cat is a hot horse (two wins and three seconds in his last five starts) for a hot trainer (Rudy Rodriguez).  We’ll be seeing more of him for sure, but I highly doubt he gets to run a half as slow as that before he’s out there being a Dad himself.