Running Style and Early/Late Ratings Added to TimeformUS PPs

Two new features have been added to TimeformUS Past Performances: Running Style, and Early/Late Ratings.

runing-style

Here’s more information on each:

Running Style
Possible Classifications for each horse:

Leader (A one-dimensional front-running horse)
Speed (A horse who races on or near the early lead)
Tracker (Generally a stalking type of horse, or one with a very tractable running style)
Midpack (A horse who generally races in the middle of the pack)
Closer (A stretch-running horse who comes from the back of the pack)
Plodder (A one-dimensional horse who languishes at the back of the pack)

The Running Style is each horse’s recent, historical running style, based on his last several performances. The Running Style is not race-specific. If all the horses in a race are “closers,” they will all be listed as closers. We will not make one of the closers a “leader” simply because it’s a race full of closers. If the horse’s “personality” is that of a closer, he will be described as a closer today, even if the unique circumstances of today’s race make it likely that he will find himself more forwardly placed than usual.

You’ll often see these running styles represented visually in our Pace Projector, and since we’ve added them to each horse’s past performances, you’ll have an even clearer understanding of where a horse is usually positioned during a race.

Early/Late Ratings
The Early/Late Ratings are created by looking at a horse’s last four races, and factoring in Running Style with early/late velocity to come up with a rating to predict the early/late ability of each horse.

Factors like distance and surface are also considered. For example, a horse that closes in 23 seconds on dirt will usually get a higher late rating than one that closes in 23 seconds on turf. A horse that closes in 23 seconds at one mile would get a much better late rating than a horse finishing in 23 seconds at 6f.

How to use Early Ratings
“Early ratings” are especially useful in races lacking a Pace Projector. In races where not enough pace data exists to create a Pace Projector, looking at each horse’s “early rating” will help you identify the potential early leader. 

How to use Late Ratings
“Late ratings” are especially useful when it seems a race will favor closers, and you want to know which closer will be coming home fastest. If a track is favoring closers, or if the pace setup of a given race will favor closers, using the “late rating” can help you identify the strongest closer.

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6 Responses to Running Style and Early/Late Ratings Added to TimeformUS PPs

  1. nomadpat says:

    I find it funny that you show new upgrades by using a horse named “Upgrade” :) Appreciate the continual introduction of new tools. Happy New Year

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  2. Sangu says:

    The early rating is 55 and late rating is 78. Is it a closer because of higher late rating? Is there any “guideline” like from 100-110 early rating it is a leader, for 90-100 speed etc?

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  3. The numbers attempt to rate which are the fastest early speed horses, and which are the fastest late. They are not tied to running style.

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  4. Cato says:

    Are the numbers tied to a scale of 0-100 like the other time form #s?
    While numbers are numbers and we can always make relative comparisons, have you determined what is a “good” early number and what is a good late # ? That is, while they will be relative to each other in a race, if they are all weak (or under a certain meaningful cutoff) then they have less significance.
    Also is there any comparison that we can see or use with regard to the early/late numbers and the pace numbers? I realize there has to be some correlation in the making of the numbers but am trying to get a handle on how to look at the numbers together to see if that boosts the analysis and returns. Thanks in advance for your time on this.

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  5. Craig says:

    what are pts per length for early and late?

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  6. Cato says:

    And I’m sure others have suggested this but it would be great to put the Early # – Running Style – Late # on the PREVIEW page under the Spotlight # – or at least give folks an option to click a button and have them appear for all the horses on that page. Thanks.

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