Aqueduct | Race 9 | Post Time 5:32 p.m. (ET) 

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Tough Street (#11) figures to go favored as she seeks her third victory in a row and fourth victory in her last five starts. Chad Brown has taken advantage of this filly’s New York-bred conditions in recent months, and now will try this starter allowance as she moves into company. She’s gotten some very savvy rides from Dylan Davis in her last couple of starts, as he’s helped her get the distance by steering her wide on the backstretch, helping her to relax before engaging the competition. She’s drawn well outside again here, but is landing in a tougher spot that features others who want to be forwardly placed. She can win, but I don’t think she’s going to offer value at her expected odds.

The TimeformUS Pace Projector is still predicting a fast pace even after multiople scratches. Other runners who will seek to be forward early include Mosienko (#8) and Dame Cinco (#5). Both are a little classier than Tough Street, yet seemed to be in better form a few months ago.

My top pick is MOVIE MOXY (#6), who might actually be getting class relief as she moves back into starter allowance company. She participated in a strong open company optional claimer last time, and ran on well for third behind her talented stablemate Mommasgottarun. In her prior start, she ran even better than her 6-length margin of victory would suggest, since she hopped up at the start and found herself at the back of the pack before making a mid-race move to take over. I just think she stacks up very favorably against this group from a class standpoint, and the trip could work out well if she breaks alertly.