Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 2:55 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

Spelterini (#5) has already had plenty of chances to break out of the maiden ranks. She’s been short prices in 4 of her 6 starts, and has settled for second on 3 occasions. She seemed so full of promise following an encouraging debut at Saratoga last summer, but she just never stepped forward off that performance. She really doesn’t have that much of an edge over main rival Risk Free (#4), who is another that has had many chances at this level. Spelterini in particular had every chance to win last time after getting a stalking trip off a slow pace, and just couldn’t forge past. I’d be a little more forgiving of Risk Free out of that race, since she was far behind in the early stages and actually did well to make some ground into those moderate early splits. That said, she’s also hard to take as she makes her tenth attempt at this level. I want to go in a different direction for a lightly raced option, and there are two intriguing second time starters. 

My top pick is MAYHEM MISS (#2). She exits a different, seemingly tougher maiden race. She broke on top but was unable to hold the lead down the backstretch. She then dropped out of contention on the turn after getting eased off the lead, but never stopped trying, as she held her ground through the lane. Overall it was a decent unveiling considering that she didn’t take any money. Now she gets a rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche for her second start, who figures to be more aggressive in a race that doesn’t appear to feature much pace. I have some doubts about her overall ability, but she has room to improve and this feels like a softer field than last time. 

The other horse that I would use at a bigger price is My Girl Jal (#6). She finished far behind Spelterini and Risk Free on debut, but got off to a tangled start and was actually finishing pretty well despite the slow fractions. This half-sister to allowance type Firing Carol might have upside for low-profile connections.

THE PLAY

#2 MAYHEM MISS, at 5-1 or greater

#6 MY GIRL JAL, at 10-1 or greater