Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 4:27 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

A couple of recent maiden winners figure to attract support in this N1X affair. Reserve Currency (#4) could go favored off his 9-length maiden score going this distance last time. He got a great trip that day, rallying into a contested pace before sailing clear late. Yet the runner-up in that affair returns to barely get the job done as a heavy favorite in his next start, so I’m not sure if he was beating anything of quality. He also may not get the same pace setup this time, and a likely wet track is another uncertain variable. 

Celestial Moon (#1) ran a similar speed figure when breaking his maiden in mid-December. He did handle a wet track to get the job done in his first and only start on dirt. Yet he also beat a field of suspect quality, as those who finished directly behind him have generally come back to disappoint in subsequent starts. I’m somewhat against both of these horses in a race that I think is more wide open than it might appear at first glance. 

I believe the horse to beat is Patient Capital (#7). He’s lost at short prices a few times recently, but I thought he ran very well last time. The pace of that Feb. 11 affair was quick, and he had to be used quite a bit to set those fractions before succumbing to deep closers in the late stages. The pace should be more moderate this time and that figures to make him very dangerous. 

Majority Partner (#2) could also work out a good trip close to the pace. However, he has to break better than he has been in his recent starts. The distance is also a concern, since he’s never gone this far. Yet he has shown good stamina in his fast-paced sprint races, and his recent TimeformUS speed figures are the highest in the field. 

My top pick is LUNI SIMA (#5). He’s going to be the best price of those who I think have a good chance to win. Some may hold his last race against him when he lost ground in the late stages, but 9 furlongs was just too far for him. He’s had success going this one-turn mile in the past, and he figures to sit a great trip stalking the pace. A repeat of his second-place 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure performance two back makes him a legitimate threat, and the price will be fair. He’s also handled wet tracks before.

THE PLAY

#5 LUNI SIMA, at 7-1 or greater