Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 4:57 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up
I’m mildly skeptical of Glowsity (#1), who could vie for favoritism in this N1X allowance. She’s beat a fairly weak group of starter allowance foes last time in her first start on the circuit. She was a visually impressive winner by over 7 lengths, but she only earned a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which makes just one of many contenders. I’m not sure she’s quite ready for this class test, though I am afraid of the connections.
Among the favorites, I much prefer Spiked (#3). This filly may have found the 1 1/8 miles distance to be a bit too far for her last time. She took over in upper stretch and appeared to have the victory wrapped up before she got to drifting in the last furlong, which ultimately resulted in her disqualification. The slight turnback to a mile should suit her and she seems to be in strong form ever since John Terranova added blinkers two back.
Suspended Campaign (#4) also makes some sense out of the Jan. 12 affair. She’s the one who got bumped by Spiked in deep stretch, forcing the inquiry. She wasn’t going to win that day, but she did seem to improve off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. The one-turn mile figures to help her, as she generally does her best work when some pace develops up front.
Pharoah’s Heart (#6) is another who could be running late, but she has to prove she can handle added ground. She tried route distances twice in California as a younger horse with mixed results. She ran well to be second to Crystal Ball in a two-turn mile race, but she was the beaten favorite. Her recent form leaves something to be desired, but it is worth noting that she got a poor trip two back at Churchill. I won’t be shocked if she improves here, though I have some reservations about her overall upside.
My top pick is BABY MAN (#10). She was soundly beaten by Spiked and Suspended Campaign last time, but 9 furlongs has always been too far for her. I like her turning back, and she has run some speed figures that make her competitive here. She’s also drawn well outside of some of her main pace rivals. Yet the most appealing thing about her is that she’s making her first start off the claim for Tom Morley. This barn is 20 for 112 (18%, $2.69 ROI) first off the claim in general, and Morley is 8 for 25 (32%, $3.69 ROI) off the claim for Flying P Stable. Jose Gomez knows this filly well and the addition of blinkers suggests that the plan is to use her speed.
WIN: #10 Baby Man, at 5-1 or greater