Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:55 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

This N2X allowance race features a rematch between Gasoline (#7) and Tonal Impact (#8), who finished a half-length apart going this distance at the N1X level last month. Gasoline was arguably a little lucky to win that race, as he got to set a moderate pace while controlling on the front end. Tonal Impact might have run the better race, as he closed from off the pace. Both he and third-place finisher Anejo returned to win their subsequent starts, flattering the form of that affair. Tonal Impact is now wheeling back in just 3 weeks after winning his own N1X race in late January, but he seems to thrive on the activity. They’re the two logical horses to beat, but there are some others to consider in this competitive race.

Linda Rice’s other runner Curlin’s Wisdom (#3) is in with a chance at what figures to be a more generous price. It’s hard to know what happened to him last time when he completely failed to show up in the slop, but his prior form makes him a major player here, and he’s handled two turns before.

My top pick is WIN THE DAY (#1). This horse has tried a variety of surfaces in his recent starts, but I think he’s best on dirt. The key for him is getting added ground, and he figures to make use of his stamina going this 1 3/16 miles distance. He showed ability early in his 3-year-old season before handling turf in the summer at Del Mar, though the distance probably worked for him in those races. He ran the best race of his career going 12 furlongs in the Tokyo City last year and more recently has been one-paced on synthetic at Turfway. Doug O’Neill tends to send live runners here, as he is 8 for 41 (20%, $3.07 ROI) on dirt at NYRA over the past 5 years.

THE PLAY

WIN: #1 Win the Day, at 5-2 or greater