Aqueduct | Race 9 | Post Time 4:27 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

Withers headliner Arctic Arrogance (#1) really hasn’t run a bad race in his career. He possessed the speed to win going 6 furlongs on debut but also had the stamina to stay 1 1/8 miles in the Remsen last year. That runner-up finish to Dubyuhnell is his claim to fame, but he did get a very favorable trip, setting a moderate pace. Linda Rice has said that he may have been a little short for the Jerome next time, but he was still supposed to win that race after getting another good setup. He now adds blinkers, but figures to have plenty of company up front if the intention is to go forward. He’s obviously the horse to beat, but I’m not looking to swallow another short price. 

His main rival appears to be Hit Show (#4). This colt generated some buzz on debut at Keeneland last year when overcoming some mild traffic to burst clear of the field in the stretch. That race didn’t earn much of a speed figure, but he’s steadily been improving since then. I really liked the way he finished off that allowance race last time at Oaklawn despite the short stretch. His dam won the Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan, so he’s supposed to get the added distance, and there’s plenty of pace to set up his late run. 

Yet I prefer another colt with upside. JUNGFRAU (#3) is another who hasn’t yet run a fast speed figure, but he’s given hints that he may be better than his record indicates. He stayed on well in his sprint debut, suggesting longer would be better. He tried this demanding 9-furlong trip in just his second start and didn’t get the best ride. He was tentatively handled early, had to alter course on the backstretch, and then got pushed inside late. He took a step forward last time at Gulfstream despite failing to cross the wire first, legitimately put up via disqualification after getting pushed out in upper stretch. Bill Mott is 10 for 39 (26%, $2.22 ROI) with 3-year-olds off maiden wins in dirt routes over 5 years. 

The one big price that I would use, primarily underneath, is Ninetyprcentmaddie (#6). He has some thing sto prove on the stretch-out, but trainer Butch Reid is an amazing 5 for 9 (56%, $12.90 ROI) with horses trying a route for the first time dirt stakes over 5 years.

THE PLAY

WIN: #3 Jungfrau, at 3-1 or greater

USE: 4,6