Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 3:47 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

I certainly respect Betsy Blue (#5), who has been one of the most consistent racehorses on the NYRA circuit for the past two years. She’s steadily improved for Linda Rice and really seems to have taken her game to a new level since last summer at Saratoga. She didn’t get the right trip in the Iroquois two back when she registered a rare off the board finish, but she bounced back with a better effort in the Go For Wand. Turned back to her preferred sprint distance in the Garland of Roses, she delivered a strong stretch rally to run past the talented Beguine in the late stages. A similar performance makes her tough to beat, but she’s also going to be a very short price now that her best form has once again been exposed. It’s also unclear if she’s going to get the same pace setup that she enjoyed last time, as the horses who you would expect to be forwardly placed aren’t exactly that fast.

Miss T Too (#2) is perhaps the quickest of them all early, but it’s been a little while since she’s been sent to the front and she doesn’t have the most aggressive rider on her back. She had some real sprint talent early in her career, but a series of setbacks have derailed her. I considered putting her on top, but I found another who may offer better value. 

FLIGHT TO SHANGHAI (#4) obviously doesn’t sport as strong a resume as some others in here, but I thought she took a subtle but significant step forward off the claim for Horacio De Paz last time. Sent off at 72-1 in that Go For Wand, she applied serious pressure to the impressive winner Dr B in the early stages and was still in the mix at the quarter pole before fading. While she hasn’t run as fast as Betsy Blue, she earned a strong 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that last performance. Furthermore, Horacio De Paz is 7 for 17 (41%, $3.74 ROI) second off the claim on dirt over the past 5 years. And at NYRA tracks, he’s 5 for 9 (56%, $6.08 ROI) with 3 second place finishes. I expect her to get an aggressive ride from Jorge Vargas and the slight turnback to 7 furlongs should suit her. I believe she’s the biggest threat to Betsy Blue and the price should be fair.

THE PLAY

WIN: #4 Flight to Shanghai, at 6-1 or greater