Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:47 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up
This 9-furlong optional claimer seems totally wide open, as none of the 6 runners stands on particularly solid ground. I suppose the ‘now’ horse is Little Demon (#4) as he returns just 6 days after a career-best performance here last Saturday. This guy was competing in cheap claiming races last summer, but he’s turned into a different horse since getting purchased by David Jacobson. For what it’s worth, Jacobson is 6 for 21 (29%, $1.96 ROI) off 4 to 8 day layoffs on dirt over 5 years, and he’s 3 for 6 (50%, $4.08 ROI) with last-out winners in that sample. This field might not be too much tougher than the one he defeated last week, but he does have to stretch out.
Locally Owned (#3) is perhaps one of the more trustworthy options given his positive experience at the distance. He got a confidence boost when dropped into some cheaper races late last year, and it seemed to work, as he’s generally been back in decent form lately. He almost got he job done going this distance last time but couldn’t quite reel in the hardy 10-year-old Rough Sea. This is a step up in class, but it’s not the strongest field for the level.
Be Better (#6) is a total wild card as he tries to get back on track after a series of poor efforts. Perhaps getting back on Lasix will prove key for a horse who used that anti-bleeder medication in both victories last summer at Monmouth. Yet I’m not sure it’s quite that simple, so I would still need a pretty generous price to give him another chance.
No Burn (#1) could play out as the controlling speed if he gets out of the gate, but that’s been an issue in his last couple of starts. He’s another who hasn’t been in the best form recently.
In such a wide open race, I try to look for value and I think SENIOR INVESTMENT (#5) could offer the best opportunity as likely the biggest price in the field. While it’s a negative that he’s lost 13 races in a row, he’s nevertheless shown up with solid efforts in most of his recent starts. He ran well behind the promising Unbridled Bomber in November, which was the last time that he made use of his tactical speed. Since then he’s been cut back to one-turn races, which don’t seem to suit him as well. He also caught a sloppy track last time, and he’s never run well on that kind of going. This stretch-out should benefit him, and he would also be suited by a more aggressive ride from Lezcano given this race’s murky pace scenario.
WIN: #5 Senior Investment, at 4-1 or greater