Wudda U Think Now (#4) could prove difficult to catch as the likely controlling speed in this Say Florida Sandy. He appeared to get back into top form last time when he got assigned a 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his Alex M. Robb victory. Yet that was a tough day to make speed figures, and it remains to be seen if he can run back to a number like that. He did set a legitimately fast pace and just kept going in a race dominated by speed types. He handles the distance and seems like a deserving favorite.
My Boy Tate (#1) defeated him in the Hudson two back, but this 9-year-old has lacked consistency over the past year. He appeared to be off form in the summer, but he came around to win that Hudson with a powerful stretch drive. However, it’s hard to find an excuse for his loss as the favorite last time and he’s unlikely to get a favorable pace setup here.
Bankit (#3) defeated him that day when getting an unusually aggressive ride from Jose Lezcano. Similar tactics could make him dangerous here, but he probably needs to run a faster speed figure than he’s earned in his last couple of starts.
My top pick at a bigger price is MARKET ALERT (#5). He’s also a little light on speed figures compared to some others in this field, but he has taken subtle steps since the claim by Rob Atras. He was game to try to battle on between horses two back when facing a pair of allowance rivals in solid form. Then last time he was always out of position in the mud after an awkward first furlong. Yet he never stopped trying, passing some tired rivals through the lane in a speed-dominated race. I don’t mind the slight turnback in distance for him, and he’s outrun his odds in some tough spots before. I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best he has to offer for Atras, and he’s getting a rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche.
WIN: #5 Market Alert, at 4-1 or greater