Aqueduct | Race 3 | Post Time 1:18 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

Valenzan Day (#5) is obviously the horse to beat as he drops in class to race for the $50k tag in this starter allowance. This colt started off his career in promising fashion, but disappointed in a series of stakes. It would appear that Rudy Rodriguez ran him out of town to race in those optional claiming races, which typically aren’t available until late in the season at NYRA. He wasn’t claimed for $62,500 in his last couple of starts, so I suppose they feel comfortable to risk him for $50k here, though one would think he’s worth a bit more than that as a Florida-bred, given the speed figures he’s running. He’s a deserving favorite, but he figures to be an awfully short price in a race where a few others do have some upside. 

Bobby the Tank (#3) is wheeling back on short rest, but he was game to hold on going a mile when breaking his maiden last week. Linda Rice tends to do well off short rests and the turnback in distance should suit him. Yet I want to go in a different direction with a horse who may get somewhat overlooked. 

ROL AGAIN DANCER (#4) looks light on speed figures compared to the favorite, but he’s actually kept pretty strong company in his recent races. Both Recruiter and Johnnz From Albany, who finished first and second two back, returned to win stakes in their next starts with improved speed figures. Rol Again Dancer was finishing decently that day despite looking a little reluctant to go through between horses in the stretch. He didn’t run as well last time at Parx, but the winner of that race has some quality to him. I like the stretch-out in distance, as he’s bred to go longer, and he seems like one who could benefit from blinkers. It’s also noteworthy that he isn’t risked for the $50k tag after putting in some quick workouts in recent weeks. I’m expecting an improved effort this time.

THE PLAY

WIN: #4 Rol Again Dancer, at 7-2 or greater