I don’t trust any of the likely short prices in this N1X allowance affair. To a T (#7) could go favored off her recent dirt speed figures, but she settles for minor awards more often than not, and is still unproven going this one-mile distance. She’s clearly in some of the best form of her career right now, but she’s come to hand as a closing sprinter and I’m doubtful that form will translate to a route distance.
Timeless Journey (#6) makes sense off her two prior dirt races, though it must be noted both of those were over wet, sealed racetracks. She earned a competitive speed figure when she won a New York-bred allowance race in late 2020, and then didn’t run that badly against some tougher stakes foes the following spring. She’s probably more of a turf horse, but she did at least show that she’s still in solid form off the layoff last time.
Some may consider Beachfront Bid (#2) after she earned a solid speed figure breaking her maiden going this distance. Yet that was a very weak off the turf affair where only two other rivals completed the race, and no one aside from the winner really handled the surface. I prefer another turf horse switching back to the main track.
RHOMBIQUE (#1) put forth one of the best efforts of her career here just 9 days ago when crossing the wire second at this level going 11 furlongs on turf. She was justifiably disqualified for interference in upper stretch, but she still ran quite well. Her form has generally been trending in the right direction, as she ran especially well three back when getting an extremely wide trip against much better rivals. Her prior dirt efforts don’t look particularly competitive with this field, but it’s worth remembering that she also wasn’t much of a turf horse back then. It appears that she’s just improved in the overall sense, and her pedigree suggests that she should be able to transfer her form back to the main track. Furthermore, the typically low-percentage Robert Ribaudo barn has been having a noteworthy run of success through this fall.
WIN: #1 Rhombique, at 7-2 or greater