Aqueduct | Race 9 | Post Time 4:12 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

I see two legitimate win candidates in this maiden special weight event that closes out the day, and I much prefer the one who figures to be a bigger price. Indemnify (#7) may take more money given the power of his connections. He’s been the odds-on favorite in all three starts, twice as part of a coupled entry. However, he’s failed to get the job done for Chad Brown, and it’s usually a red flag when horses continue to lose at short prices for this barn. 

Last time out that Brown trainee finished behind today’s rival SEIGE OF BOSTON (#5), and there’s no doubt his Jimmy Toner rival ran the better race. Seige of Boston was breaking from the outside post position in a 10-horse field, and his rider never made any attempt to get near the rail. He raced 4-wide around the first turn and proceeded to make his move while 3-wide on the far turn. He actually did well to challenge for the lead in midstretch before getting turned away by early leader Steady On, who came back to win with a 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Now he takes the blinkers off, which should allow him to settle a bit better, something that has been a problem for the horse in the past. If he runs back to his most recent performance, I don’t believe Indemnify will be able to turn the tables on him.

THE PLAY

WIN: #5 Seige of Boston, at 7-5 or greater