Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 3:45 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

I found this N1X allowance affair to be one of the most confusing races on the card. Watasha (#6) could vie for favoritism after impressively breaking his maiden here last month for Chad Brown. However, I don’t trust this horse to work out the same trip as last time, and still have some concerns about his reliability after he disappointed at short prices in the first two starts of his career.

Some of the speed did scratch out of this race, which helps the aforementioned runner and could hurt Reggae Music Man (#8). This New York-bred seems to fit that profile as he was rerouted here from last week’s Hudson after having a minor issue. This horse ran very well when last seen in the John Morrissey over the summer, closing effectively against some solid state-bred sprinters. The subsequent layoff is a minor concern, but he appears to be working well for his return to the races. The removal of blinkers also suggests that they will use closing tactics again. I went in a different direction for my top pick.

LEDDY (#3) is another runner who should be helped by the scratch of some key pace rivals. He wasn’t beating much in either of his last two starts, but he was visually impressive on each occasion. That Aug. 3 race at Saratoga has proven to be stronger than the speed figure indicates, and he ran away authoritatively last time with a nice turn of foot. I like that Rice continues to move him up the class ladder and expect another solid performance.

THE PLAY

WIN: #3 Leddy, at 3-1 or greater