Aqueduct | Race 10 | Post Time 5:15 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

Showemyourheels (#8) could go favored here despite disappointing as the favorite in an off-the-turf affair last time. She ran quite well on turf in her career debut at Saratoga two back, and would appear to prefer this surface. However, that was a sprint and now she’s being asked to stretch out in distance. She is bred to got this far on the dam’s side. Furthermore, Danny Gargan is 8 for 25 (32%, $3.92 ROI) maidens stretching out on turf over the past 5 years. I’m not against her, but I do think a couple of other rivals are interesting at better prices. 

First time starter Sweetness (#4) merits respect for dangerous connections. Jorge Abreu has an excellent record with his debut runners, and he’s 4 for 9 (44%, $6.88 ROI) with first time starters on turf for owner Lawrence Goichman. This filly is by solid turf sire Oscar Performance and is a half-sister to multiple turf winners, including turf specialist Shawdyshawdyshawdy. 

My top pick is second time starter CARIBBEAN BREEZE (#7). I thought this filly showed some potential on debut, where she raced very greenly. She was climbing on the backstretch after getting outrun early, seeming to react badly to kickback on the dirt. Now she switches surfaces for her second start. The dam was best on turf as a racehorse, though she hasn’t yet produced a surface winner, and this filly is a daughter of emerging turf sire Mendelssohn. Brad Cox is 5 for 22 (23%, $3.12 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from dirt sprints to turf routes over the past 5 years. 

THE PLAY

WIN: #7 Caribbean Breeze, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 4,8