Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, November 5


Secret Rules (#4) is obviously the horse to beat as he drops down second off the layoff. His last couple of speed figures make him pretty formidable against this crew, and he proved that he’s still capable of producing competitive form in his return from the layoff last time. That was also his first start off the claim for Rob Falcone, where then protected him from getting claimed. However, now he drops down somewhat surprisingly, with a 10-pound apprentice rider named. He’s not for me at a short price. Lafitte’s Fleet (#2) looks like one of his main rivals as he makes his first start off the claim for Rob Atras. His best form puts him in the mix, but I didn’t think he had a major excuse when finishing 5 lengths behind Secret Rules last time. My top pick is Bourbon Bay (#3). I had been interested in this horse when he made his return from the layoff last time, where he was protected with the claiming waiver. I thought he ran an admirable race, but the 9-furlong distance proved to be too much for him to handle off the layoff. This cutback to 7 furlongs makes sense, as he’s run well in one turn races in the past. I actually think this a comparable field to the one he met last time even though it’s technically a slight rise in class. 


I don’t have a major knock against Redifined (#8). She’s simply the horse to beat, any way you slice it. She showed ability in her debut at Belmont earlier this year and has stepped forward with each subsequent start. She didn’t have the smoothest trip in the Bolton Landing, when she got bumped out of position at the start; still ran on well for third behind Love Reigns, one of the favorites in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. This filly would have merited consideration in that race herself had her connections gone in that direction after her excellent Matron performance. However, they’re taking a more conservative route here, and she appears to have found a favorable spot. The only drawback is the expected short price. I thought she ran better than Dontlookbackatall (#6) in the Matron, even though that one did have to briefly pause in upper stretch. I want to go in a different direction when looking for an alternative. Georgees Spirit (#2) showed a real affinity for turf in her second start after being meant for that surface in her career debut. She stalked the pace between horses on the turn and only worked her way into the clear at mid-stretch, at which point she really lengthened her stride to run down the leader. They tried to stretch her out last time in the Miss Grillo, but she was unwisely rated behind a slow pace and just doesn’t want to go that far right now. She gets back to the right distance and still has some upside.

RACE 8: LEDDY (#3)

I found this N1X allowance affair to be one of the most confusing races on the card. Watasha (#6) could vie for favoritism after impressively breaking his maiden here last month for Chad Brown. However, I don’t trust this horse to work out the same trip as last time, and still have some concerns about his reliability after he disappointed at short prices in the first two starts of his career. Horses like Dot’s Dollar (#2) and Prisoner (#9) are supposed to show plenty of early speed, which could set it up for a runner to rally from just off the pace. Reggae Music Man (#8) seems to fit that profile as he was rerouted here from last week’s Hudson after having a minor issue. This horse ran very well when last seen in the John Morrissey over the summer, closing effectively against some solid New York-bred sprinters. The subsequent layoff is a minor concern, but he appears to be working well for his return to the races. The removal of blinkers also suggests that they will use closing tactics again. I went in a different direction for my top pick. Leddy (#3) may look like a pace casualty at first glance, but I suspect Linda Rice and Jose Lezcano will look to get this 3-year-old back into the second flight of runners, especially considering that Rice has a speedier entrant drawn inside. He wasn’t beating much in either of his last two starts, but he was visually impressive on each occasion. That Aug. 3 race at Saratoga has proven to be stronger than the speed figure indicates, and he ran away authoritatively last time with a nice turn of foot. I like that Rice continues to move him up the class ladder and expect another solid performance.

This entry was posted in Race Previews. Bookmark the permalink.


Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s