Belmont at the Big A | Race 4 | Post Time 2:12 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

I suppose Oakhurst (#2) could go favored, assume she runs here instead of at Keeneland, where she’s cross-entered. However, I haven’t been thrilled with her form since she won so impressively in Kentucky earlier in the year. She got a great trip and had no excuse not to get past Eminent Victor in the Wild Applause, and then she was no factor in two subsequent stakes tries. She’s getting some class relief as she goes out for Michelle Nevin this time, but has to do better. 

Among the likely short prices, I prefer Silvestri (#3), who made her North American debut at Woodbine earlier this month for Christophe Clement. She always traveled like a winner that day, ranging up confidently before displaying a nice turn of foot to spurt away from that field. She’s stretching out around two turns here, but she had no troubles handling a mile in France last year. I believe she’s the horse to beat. 

My top pick is LASHARA (#4). Her form looks pretty inconsistent at first glance, but I can easily make excuses for some of her poor efforts. She ran well first time out for the Mike Maker barn back in July when she made a wide move to just miss behind subsequent graded stakes winner Evvie Jets. I don’t care about her dirt race, and last time she didn’t get the best trip at Kentucky Downs. Irad Ortiz tried to angle her wide coming off the far turn, but engaged in bumping match with a foe before she flattened out. I think she’s better than that and can rebound stretching back out to a mile.

THE PLAY

WIN: #4 Lashara, at 7-2 or greater

USE: 3