I didn’t think likely favorite Orchestration (#3) had much of an excuse to lose last time when he tried this distance for the first time. Winner Shawyshawdyshawdy has been in great form lately, but Orchestration got first run on that one and just didn’t produce much of a kick to the wire. He’s drawn well here and makes sense, but I didn’t want to settle for a short price on him. I’m most interested in a few 3-year-olds.
Given the lack of pace in this race, I think you have to consider Good Medicine (#10). He’s not the quickest horse, but he should get another aggressive ride after breaking his maiden while setting the pace at this distance last time. He clearly prefers these longer trips and I think he’s subtly been moving forward for Todd Pletcher.
I’m also intrigued by both horses exiting the G3 Jockey Club Derby earlier in the meet. The Grey Wizard (#9) is the one who figures to attract more attention after finishing second to the talented Nations Pride in that spot. However, he got a great trip, just saving ground on the turns before slipping through inside in the stretch.
I prefer DAUNT (#5) out of that race. He was uncharacteristically close to the pace while racing off the rail path throughout, and it did feel like the inside was an advantage during that time at Aqueduct. He never threw in the towel despite fading to fifth. I’ve always wanted to see this horse concentrate on marathon distances since he has such scope to him and seems like one who will gallop all day. This is a more realistic spot for him and he figures to go off at a generous price once again.
WIN: #5 Daunt, at 6-1 or greater