Belmont at the Big A | Race 4 | Post Time 2:12 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

There appears to be plenty of pace in this allowance affair, which could work against potential favorite King Angelo (#6). This horse beat a decent field at Saratoga in July and did so in fast time. However, he benefited from a clear early lead and it seems unlikely he can work out the same trip this time given the presence of speeds like Ikigai (#2) and Fluid Situation (#7). 

The other runner who figures to take money is Gianni Lambo (#9), and I do think he’s dangerous. He has the right running style for this race, as she showed the ability close from off the pace in his return from the layoff last time. The winner of that race is quite talented, but Gianni Lambo was never a serious threat while just picking up pieces late. He’s a major player, but I don’t think he’ll be much price with Irad Ortiz retaining the mount. 

If I’m going to take a closer, I’d rather go for a longshot like MONTATHAM (#8). He might look overmatched at this level at first glance, since he hasn’t officially won a starter allowance yet. However, his speed figures stack up pretty well against this field, I’m skeptical that the shorter prices will be able to produce their best form in this spot. While he was legitimately taken down two back, he ran quite well to cross the wire first that day, and I thought he put in a similarly strong performance last time as the only horse to close in a race dominated up front. Joseph Lee’s runners rarely take much money, but this horse has run well for him and should get the right setup here.

THE PLAY

WIN: #8 Montatham, at 7-1 or greater